On the heels of a stunning victory by Kurt Kitayama at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the stage is set for yet another elevated event as the 2023 edition of The Players Championship kicks off this week at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The most iconic Pete Dye creation, TPC Sawgrass is a hazard-filled, positional, Florida-style test that hosts what many consider the most competitive and thrilling tournament of the year. Though the field is packed with talent again this year, with some of the world’s best being ineligible to play this week, we can safely discard the title of The Players Championship being golf’s “fifth major”. Even so, it remains one of the most important events on the calendar. 2019 champion Rory McIlroy summed up what the tournament means by saying, “I wouldn’t consider my career complete if I hadn’t won a Players Championship.”
Visually, TPC Sawgrass is one of the most perfectly manicured courses in the world. From the lush rough to the elaborately designed white sand bunkers to the 16 holes framed with water to the lightning-fast tiered greens, players will face challenges on every hole. There are few other courses that can match its risk/reward brilliance. Tee shots on the angled fairways are well-designed and encourage golfers to hit toward the trouble for the least obstructed approach shots into the demanding greens. It’s a course where any type of player can win. Pretenders are quickly weeded out. Errors get compounded in a hurry. Players that are strong mentally who have an all-around game and are entering with sharp form typically have the best chance of surviving the torture chamber. It sounds cliche, but here at Sawgrass, the best overall player for the week raises the trophy on Sunday.
Volatility and variance are definitely the words of the week. Golf is already the sport with the most variance, and this week the game is being played on perhaps golf’s most volatile course, TPC Sawgrass. Penalty hazards create variance. Throw in some potential wind and rain as we saw in last year’s event and carnage becomes likely. Sawgrass has been in the top three for most penalty strokes taken in each of the last three seasons.
All of this unpredictability leads to highly volatile leaderboards, as well. And while past performance at TPC Sawgrass has the seventh most predictive correlation to future success (according to DataGolf), there has never been a back-to-back winner here. In fact, over the last 30 years, Tiger Woods and Davis Love III are the only repeat winners. “That just goes to show you how hard it is to come back and play this golf course,” past winner Jason Day said. “Because it does test every aspect of your game, not only the physical part, but the mental part as well.”
Want more evidence of the volatility this event brings? World No. 1 Jon Rahm has finished 55th or worse in three of his five trips here. World numbers 2 and 3, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have missed a combined three cuts in their last six starts at TPC Sawgrass with only one finish inside the top 30. And the fourth and sixth-ranked players in the world, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele have missed a combined six consecutive cuts here at Pete’s “Dye-abolical” masterpiece.
Along with the volatility, another reason why handicapping this event is so difficult is because TPC Sawgrass doesn’t favor one specific style of play over another. It’s strategic target golf from point A to point B. Chess with a golf ball. Whenever this is the case, approach play becomes paramount, and what I like to call “The Separator”. Players that can hit the proper quadrant on these small greens and gain on the field in proximity to the hole are the golfers who will be in the best position to separate from the field and rise to the top of the leaderboard. 74% of players to finish in the top 10 at TPC Sawgrass since 2018 gained at least two strokes on approach for the week. And if your ball striking is off, there is one minor saving grace – an elite short game. Out of the five players to finish in the top 10 since 2018 that lost on approach for the week, they gained an average of 9.3 strokes around the green and putting.
2023 The PLAYERS Championship Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Strong Field/Difficult Courses
- SG: High Water Danger Courses
- SG: Less Than Driver Courses
With all the volatility that surrounds TPC Sawgrass, I went a little lighter on finish position bets and tried to spread out my outrights more than usual to include a couple more mid-range plays. And I would encourage everyone to not go all in on any player.
A couple of things stand out in the “Winning Trends” for this event. First, past experience at TPC Sawgrass is huge. Players who have gone through the grind of playing this Pete Dye masterpiece, who have experienced both success and failure, have an advantage over golfers with less course history. Notice that I did not mention “positive” course history. With the event moving to March back in 2019, I am actually throwing those results out the window in the model for this week. It is not enough sample size, and with the volatility of this course, we have just as many missed cuts as Top-10 finishes from the best players in the world here. 7th most predictive course history
The second important trend that stands out is that players need to be in quality current form coming into this event. I will especially be targeting players who have been positive with their SG: Approach play over the past 12 rounds.
Three unique splits are used in the model this week. They are Strokes Gained performance on courses with strong fields and on difficult scoring courses, performance on less than driver courses, and strokes gained on courses with high water danger. With winds starting to creep into the mix for the week, players strong in the wind should also be targeted.
With so much trouble at every turn, Bogey and Double Bogey avoidance is another stat with added weight this week. Players must keep big numbers off of their scorecards.
Around the green play and scrambling is also huge this week. Every player will end up needing to scramble for par or bogey. Players who can limit the damage and get up and down to save strokes are preferred.
With over a 39% Birdie or Better rate on the Par-5s, it is essential that players shoot under par on these holes. Par-5 scoring shows up in the model on the Scoring and Core 4 splits this week.
Finally, with all types of players finding success here at TPC Sawgrass, my focus will be on all-around skill players who are generally positive in their tee-to-green game each week, with an added focus on elite ball-strikers.
Most Important Stats For Success at the PLAYERS Championship
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Good Drive %
- Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
- SG: ARG
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (overall)
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better%
- SG: Total in Difficult Fields
Early Weather Forecast – Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
The PLAYERS Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Justin Thomas +2200
Thomas is one of the few players that I trust at TPC Sawgrass, not only to make the cut, but also to finish high on the leaderboard. He is one of the best iron players in the world, and that, combined with his elite around-the-green game is the exact combination needed for success this week. He is incredibly well-rounded and is one of the best wind players as well. He also finished first in my model in past performance on other “less than driver” courses and on tracks with high water danger. Though he has had consistency issues of late, he fits this course better than anyone.
(1.09u) BetRivers
Tony Finau +3200 (currently +2800)
Finau is another great fit at Sawgrass because he has the all-around game needed to contend here. He ranks in the top 10 in tee-to-green and has the putting prowess to get hot with the flatstick. Overall his last 24 rounds, he is second in this entire field in SG: Approach. While his course history leaves much to be desired, his talent and upside are too high for a number like 32-1.
(0.75u) FanDuel
Will Zalatoris +3600 (currently +3500)
Ranking out as the fourth-best ball-striker in this field, the small challenging greens at TPC Sawgrass will allow Zalatoris to separate from the field on approach. He plays his best on tough courses and in strong-field events and The PLAYERS lines up perfectly. On a course with a high 3-putt rate, his consistency in lag putting will benefit him on these tough greens. His prior experiences here with finishes of 21st and 26th will further help his cause this week.
(0.66u) FanDuel
Max Homa +4600 (future – currently +2000)
Week after week, Homa continues to impress. California, Florida, the desert, the coast – it does not matter. He can play anywhere, on any surface and it’s very hard to argue that he isn’t a top-five player in the world at the moment. Over the past 36 rounds, he is second to only Jon Rahm in SG average per round. Though his short game left him, he gained 11.1 strokes ball-striking at Bay Hill last week. Expect a bounce-back this week as he hasn’t lost with the putter in consecutive weeks in over a year.
(0.52u) FanDuel
Jason Day +5000 (currently +3000)
Though without a win to show for it, over the past 36 rounds, Day sits behind only Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jon Rahm in strokes gained per round. He is in excellent form with four consecutive top-10s, leads the field in bogey avoidance, and has drastically improved the poor putting that had plagued him over the past couple of years. In fact, since the start of 2023 that he is gaining a jaw-dropping 1.33 strokes per round with the flatstick.
(0.48u) BetRivers
Other Outrights
- Keith Mitchell +6600 (0.36u) – BetRivers
- Keegan Bradley +7500 (0.32u) – FanDuel
- Thomas Detry +28000 (0.08u) – FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Justin Thomas +110 (1u) – DraftKings
- Max Homa +110 (1u) – FanDuel
- Jason Day +135 (1u) – FanDuel
- Xander Schauffele +135 (1u) – FanDuel
- Tony Finau +140 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – FanDuel
- Matt Fitzpatrick +100 (1u)
- Sungjae Im +100 (1u)
- Keith Mitchell +125 (1u)
- Keegan Bradley +125 (1u)
- Tom Kim +130 (1u)
Top 40 – FanDuel
- Chris Kirk +120 (1u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +125 (1u)
- Ben Griffin +225 (1u)
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images