With only two weeks until the year’s third major at the U.S. Open, the PGA heads to Muirfield Village and one of the more iconic courses on Tour as it hosts the Memorial Tournament in Dublin, Ohio. “Jack’s Place” is a beautiful championship venue that has grown into one of golf’s premier events. Five-time winner of the Memorial, Tiger Woods, summed up the meaning of this tournament and how it’s connected to the respect players have for Jack Nicklaus. “I’ve always tried to play at Jack’s events. What he’s meant to the Tour, I’ve always tried to support his events. This one in particular is very special to him, it’s very special to us as players.”
Designed by Nicklaus himself in 1974 during the midst of his playing career, it is the only venue in history to host the Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup, and Solheim Cup. It’s a demanding course that is bold and long, and one where players must perform well tee-to-green to have any chance at success Those who get out of position in the thick rough, either with wayward drives or poor approaches into the firm greens will struggle to make par. Muirfield Village will provide a stringent test of short-game skills as it ranks as the second toughest course (behind Augusta National) to gain strokes around the green.
After toughening up the course in 2020, Nicklaus described his philosophy on the renovation and Muirfield Village in general. “My belief is that tournament golf should be a test to find out who is the best golfer that week. Far too many tournaments have eliminated the rough and firmness of greens, and that is just not my idea of what the game of golf should be. So I’m going to stick with my old-fashioned beliefs about how the game of golf should be played and the way golf courses should be set up. The whole gamut of all shots is what the game of golf is all about. The game should challenge every facet of every club in the bag.”
There has been a diverse group of winners over the past dozen events with some of the elite players in the game rising to the top in recent years. Since Nicklaus renovated the course in 2020, scoring has become even tougher, averaging 1.02 strokes over par. Last year, Billy Horschel had success throughout his bag gaining 8.4 strokes ball-striking along with 9.0 strokes with his short game.
The Field
The Memorial is a 120-man invitational event with the top-65 and ties making it through the cut line. With major-like conditions, similar to Augusta National, it presents a great warm-up for the upcoming challenges that players will see at the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club. With a total purse of $20 million, the winner receives $3.6 million along with 550 FedExCup points.
Muirfield Village typically hosts one of the strongest fields on Tour and this year is no different with it being next in line in the PGA’s series of elevated events. The top five players in the world, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, along with 23 of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings will be in attendance. Three of the past four winners here (Cantlay in 2019, Rahm in 2020, Cantlay in 2021) are from players who currently reside among this group. Billy Horschel also returns to defend his title from last year. The top players who are sitting out this week include Max Homa, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, and Justin Rose.
2023 the Memorial – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Elevated Events
- SG: Strong Fields
- SG: Difficult Scoring Courses
- SG: Long Courses
Coming on the heels of the Schwab Challenge last week and the PGA Championship two weeks ago, the Memorial has a common theme with both – that being the importance of the approach game into these ultra-firm, smaller-than-average greens. I know it sounds like it gets repeated for almost every event, but this week Strokes Gained Approach really matters. Muirfield Village is the 7th toughest course on Tour to gain strokes in that area. Strokes Gained Approach and Around the Green are the two metrics I have focused on with my player selection as ball-strikers and short-game wizards have contended with high frequency on past leaderboards.
This course demands precision on every stroke, yet birdie opportunities can be gained if players can find the right quadrant on the greens. The top-5 on the leaderboard in 2021 gained an average of 4.8 shots on approach. Last year, not a single player in the top-13 gained less than 2.1 strokes on approach. Long-iron play will be paramount with 49% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards. This is well above the Tour average of 44%. The average approach distance is one of the highest anywhere at 191 yards compared to the average of 172 yards.
Another key factor this week that players have been heavily quoted on is leaving your putts below the hole in the proper area of the green. With the greens sloping so severely in spots, there are many locations where the ball will gather to the hole. Much of this is learned by course experience which is another reason to target players who have been battle-tested at Muirfield. Learning where you can and can’t miss will be paramount to success. Finally, players with a higher ball apex who can land their ball softer on these greens will be crucial for a higher GIR%.
The other area I am heavily focused on with my finish position bets especially is around-the-green play. Because greens in regulation are only hit at a 57% clip, plenty of approaches end up in the 4-inch rough. Scrambling is only successful around these green complexes 54% of the time making it the toughest course to gain strokes in that area.
Much of the scoring difficulty at Muirfield comes mostly from the touch and creativity golfers need to display with their short game. SG: ARG is actually the 4th most correlated stat to having success here. In 2021, the top-6 players gained at least two strokes in SG: ARG. Last year’s winner, Billy Horschel, was a magician around the greens gaining 5.2 strokes. And it’s not just the 4-inch rough that gives players trouble, it’s the 68 bunkers that surround these greens, many of which are massive and deep.
Muirfield Village has always had a “major” feel to it thanks to the strength of the field and the tough “U.S. Open” type conditions. With the exception of a three-year stretch from 2015-2017, it has been the elite talents in the game that have won this event. With that in mind, this makes it much easier to narrow down an outright card with a focus on players with odds of 50-1 or lower. Thus I have completely refrained from longshots this week. Going back to 2010, when taking out the two longshots in David Lingmerth and William McGirt, the average winner’s odds was +3800.
Most Important Stats For Success at Muirfield Village GC
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Scrambling (Rough)
- Good Drive % (Rough)
- SG: Par 5
- Proximity 175+ yds
- Bogey Avoidance
- Total Driving
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
- SG: T2G
- SG: Course History + Other Difficult T2G Courses
Weather Forecast – Dublin, Ohio
The Memorial – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Patrick Cantlay +1100
It was a tough call between Jon Rahm or Cantlay, and I sided with the slight value in Cantlay’s number. Of course, his stellar course history also played strongly in the decision. He has the second-best history at Muirfield Village compared to any player at any other PGA Tour course (minimum 24 rounds). He has gained 2.74 strokes in 28 career rounds here including wins back in 2021 and 2019. Only Rahm’s 2.85 at Torrey Pines South is better. Cantlay ranks in the top 10 in almost every single category in my model and has been playing stellar golf of late with seven consecutive top-21 finishes including four top-10s.
(2.18u) Bovada
Justin Thomas +3500
Full disclaimer here – I have zero confidence in Justin Thomas winning this week. In fact, I have little confidence he will even finish in the top-20. This is strictly a value play at a number that has drifted way too high. Even with his struggles at the PGA Championship, his iron play remains one of the best in the world. And he has looked more confident the greens the last two events after starting to use the Aim Point putting method gaining 1.2 strokes total in his last eight rounds. He can also hit all the shots necessary around the greens ranking 11th in my SG: ARG sub-model. The upside is there along with the skills for success at this course.
(0.68u) Bovada
Jordan Spieth +4000
I know he let everyone down last week but his short-game struggles can be easily fixed in a week, especially on a course he loves. I also trust him more to win than anyone else in the 30-40 range. Reports say that his wrist looks completely healthy and I’m confident that will be a non-factor this week. Spieth has been quoted numerous times talking about how much he loves this course. The results here definitely back that up with four consecutive top-18 finishes. He especially loves putting on fast undulating greens which is the norm here at Muirfield Village. With scoring at a minimum, I look forward to watching Spieth’s creativity and short-game magic around the greens steal shots from the field.
(0.60u) BetMGM
Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (currently +4000)
With Muirfield Village being the toughest course to gain strokes around the green, what better player to have on your betting than the top-ranked short-game player in the field who has also won here in the past. Matsuyama ranks second in SG: ARG and third in scrambling. He is one of the best iron/wedge players from the rough and favors bentgrass greens. With the course playing so firm and difficult this week, birdie putts will be tough to come by for everyone. This somewhat mitigates his main weakness with the flatstick. When he won back in 2014 in similar conditions he actually lost strokes putting. He has also been rounding into form with five straight top-30s including 5th at THE PLAYERS and16th at the Masters.
(0.53u) FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Scottie Scheffler -135 (2u) – FanDuel
- Jon Rahm -115 (1.5u) – DraftKings
- Patrick Cantlay +115 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Jordan Spieth +140 (1u)
- Rickie Fowler +140 (1u)
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Hideki Matsuyama -120 (1.2u)
- Matt Fitzpatrick -110 (1.1u)
- Corey Conners -105 (1.1u)
- Shane Lowry +110 (1u)
- Si Woo Kim +115 (1u)
Top 40 – all FanDuel
- Adam Scott -130 (1.3u)
- Billy Horschel +130 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images