The Memorial is the 11th designated event on Tour this season, drawing an exceptionally strong 120-man field to Muirfield Village Golf Club, one of the Tour’s premier courses. The Jack Nicklaus design is a stern test of golf, and that, combined with Jack’s presence during the week, draws an elite-level field to Dublin, Ohio, every year.
The 2020 redesign stretched the par-72 track to 7,533 from the tips, making it the 9th longest on Tour. The fairways are generous, though tighter after the redesign, but the rough is tall and thick if you miss the fairways. Players should also expect firm, contoured bentgrass greens, with a premium put on elite approach play from 175 yards out. Jack’s goal is to force the winner to use every club in his bag.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Muirfield Village:
After the 2020 event, Nicklaus oversaw an extensive course renovation that saw new tees added on five holes, a complete reconstruction of the green complexes with bentgrass surfaces, and recontoured bunkers. The 15th hole was also completely rebuilt. This renovation also lengthened the course by close to 100 yards. Since last year’s tournament, new tees have been added on No. 16 and No. 17, which has further lengthened the course by around 40 yards. Looking back from 2016-2020, Muirfield Village played to an average score of 0.75 over par. When analyzing the data after last year’s renovation, it has played significantly more difficult at an average of 1.02 strokes over par.
Three of the par-3s are over 200 yards and play a combined 0.62 over par. And the shortest one, the 180-yard 12th hole, has the highest bogey-or-worse rate at 26%. They are the toughest par-3s on Tour. Players will be hitting long irons into small and firm greens and will have their patience tested.
There is not a single par-4 that plays under par. The only par-4s that are even close are the two holes that are under 400 yards. Seven of them play between 450-500 yards which is a range that should be targeted with players who have success from that yardage.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s Memorial Betting Targets
Tyrrell Hatton
Winning golf tournaments is difficult. Tyrrell Hatton has done everything except close the deal this season, which is easier said than done, of course. Hatton has four consecutive T19 of better finishes. He’s been a coin-flip to finish inside the top seven with seven T7 or better finishes over his past 14 starts.
He’s long and straight off the tee, ranking 12th on Tour in total driving this season. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks third in this week’s field in Good Drive%, which captures a combination of off-the-tee and approach form. His game sets up incredibly well for what it takes to win at Muirfield Village, and I’m surprised that this hasn’t been a regular stop for him throughout his career, with a T33 in 2019 in his long appearance to date.
Hideki Matsuyama
Pre-tournament bets on Hideki Matsuyama have been few and far between for me over the past two seasons, simply because it feels like he’s been a game-time decision leading up to every event. I’m willing to take on that risk this week because I like how Matsuyama’s game is trending and how it fits Muirfield Village.
It appears that Matsuyama has made a calculated change, sacrificing a bit of distance in exchange for accuracy off the tee. His field-adjusted distance numbers are at a career-low and slightly below field-average, while his accuracy has improved. He’s gained at least two strokes tee-to-green in nine of his past ten starts, including a ridiculous 10.4 his last time out at the PGA Championship. That week was derailed by a poor putting performance, which is suddenly a rare occurrence for Matsuyama, who’s in the midst of improving his putting stats for the fourth consecutive year. Don’t forget, he’s a wizard around the greens, and that still matters here with a GIR% 27% lower than a Tour average event.
Wyndham Clark
After a tremendous run, Wyndham Clark finally sealed the deal a few weeks back with his Wells Fargo Championship victory. While I wouldn’t pinpoint Quail Hollow as a corollary course for Muirfield Village, both are long and difficult. Clark’s 2023 ascension has been on the back of elite approach play, where he’s gained strokes on the field in 15 of his past 16 measured starts. In fact, over his past 36 rounds, Clark ranks third in this field in approach.
Overall, he ranked fifth for me in my weekly statistical model, which doesn’t align with his outright betting odds whatsoever. He hits it a country mile, and as long as he’s not spraying it off the tee, he’ll be in contention. His T40 on FanDuel is my favorite bet of the week.
Gary Woodland
Gary Woodland is not for everyone. He’ll often pop up as a great play when you don’t look at any putting metrics, which is the case for me this week, outside of ensuring that my golfers aren’t allergic to bentgrass. Everything from one-putt% to 3-putt% from 25+ feet is easier at Muirfield Village, so I’m not factoring it into my modeling for the week.
Now that could be a mistake, but without it, Gary Woodland is a tremendous fit for this course. He’s long and straight off the tee; he’s one of the best 200+ yard approach players on Tour and feasts on par 5s. In addition, bentgrass happens to be Woodland’s best putting surface, though best is certainly relative. Woodland ranks sixth for me in my model over the past 36 rounds, so despite the putting worse, I’m willing to back him at this crazy-long number.
- To Win: +12500 BetRivers
- Top 40: -105 DraftKings
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Si Woo Kim and Rickie Fowler – T40 (+156)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These two were the last cuts from my outright betting shortlist, and I wanted to note them here. I believe this course is a great fit for their games, and the recent form is trending upward for both. Love this at plus-money.
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