2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Preview

After a six-week hiatus, PGA Tour golf is back! There is no better place to kick off the 2023 calendar year than the warmth, beauty and lush green grass of Hawaii at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Much like in baseball, with the start of spring training in the Florida and Arizona sunshine signifying the coming end of winter, the Tournament of Champions represents golf’s rebirth and another year full of intrigue, fierce competition, and the crowning of new and old champions. While this event has always had a strong field, it takes on added importance this year as one of the new “elevated events” with a much higher purse than before.

Since 1999, the Tour has kicked off the new year with this tournament which has been held at the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort near Lahaina on the island of Maui. Kapalua is where paradise and golf meet. Once the site of a large pineapple plantation, it’s such a unique course that on the first tee you can see whales breaching in the distance, and on the 18th tee can smack a 450+ yard drive. Thanks to the wind and elevation changes, it is one of the few courses on earth where the yardage on the scorecard is irrelevant on so many holes.

This compilation of the world’s best golfers is a unique, no-cut, small-field event, played on a low-scoring par 73 course that has expansive fairways, numerous elevation changes, and gusty coastal breezes. Thanks to the combination of easy-to-hit fairways and greens, it’s one of the most genuine birdie fests on Tour and it favors the best mid-to-long iron players and the hottest putters. It plays the complete opposite of a target-style golf course. The allowance for creativity and multiple options for each shot makes it a fun track to play. Players with every shot in their bag who can maneuver the terrain and manage the wind will best position themselves for success at Kapalua.

After a wind-blown 2020 where the winning score by Justin Thomas was only 14-under par, the past two events have seen scoring return to the more common finishing number of 25-under or lower. Cam Smith took birdie-making to another level in last year’s tournament winning with an event record of 34-under.

The Field

39 players, including 17 of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking, are set to compete at Kapalua where the Plantation Course will celebrate its 25th year as tournament host. The field for this event is solely comprised of the different PGA Tour winners from last year along with any other players that finished in the top 30 of the final 2022 FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List. It kicks off the “Hawaii Swing” (which concludes with next week’s Sony Open) and is meant as a paradise of escape from the cold winter enveloping most of America by providing the best players on Tour with a rewarding experience at the Kapalua Resort.

With everyone in the field coming in with at least a month off from competition, it’s always interesting to see which players have been grinding away back home over the break and come out sharp in the first round. The resort setup is meant to help the pros ease back into the grind after (mostly) putting their clubs away over the holidays. Last year’s champion, Cameron Smith started hot by leading after round one and ended up going wire-to-wire for the victory.

Past Sentry champions that will be teeing it off this week include Justin Thomas (twice), Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth. Smith (along with a few other golfers) is ineligible to play this year due to joining the LIV Golf League. All of the other top-ranked players in the world who qualified will participate this week with the exception of Rory McIlroy who has once again decided to skip this event and begin his season in Abu Dhabi in a few weeks.

Past Winners and Odds

Winner Trends

  • Only one player fits ALL 12 trends: Justin Thomas
  • Only two players fit 11 trends: Tony Finau and Sam Burns
  • 10 of 12 trends: Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay

Betting Card Strategy

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One of the most important things that I have come to learn when betting each week on a sport as volatile as golf is to stick with a consistent and disciplined strategy. Sticking to the same structure each week is something that should be everyone’s goal. The time period that I began posting picks was from in June of 2021. Over the next five months until the end of the year, I hit an amazing nine outright winners. I didn’t realize it at the time but I was being much too aggressive and had no structure. Last year I set rules for myself and began a slow shift toward a card that is heavier in finishing position and head-to-head matchup bets.

I’m still more aggressive than I probably should be on outrights. Each tournament I allocate around four units to outright bets, each to pay 24 units. That means I need to hit one outright every six weeks to break even on winner selections for the year. Some weeks I will be playing 12 outrights, other weeks it might only have five. It all depends on the odds and how many players I can fit inside those four units.

Other bets that will be posted weekly on our Discord will be finishing position bets, first-round leader bets along with tournament and round matchup bets. These bets are also structured as well with finish and matchup bets each to win between 1 and 1.3 units. And then two units on first-round leader bets, each to pay 12 units.

Sentry ToC Betting Narratives and Strategies

Unique Model Weights

  • SG: Coastal/Wind Courses
  • SG: Strong Field Events
  • SG: No Cut Events
  • SG: Long and Easy Courses

With such a small field event of only 39 players, along with a handful of around ten players who are very likely to finish in the bottom third for the week, this is a tournament where bets will be lower in volume given the restricted value on the board.

Due to a number of factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score is typically in the low-to-mid 20s under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas and Smith’s victories that were separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the second-easiest course on Tour at -2.62. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers plenty of potential challenges including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.

Past course history is one of the most important narratives for this week because it actually matters a lot. High-percentage trends in golf matter. As can be seen in the Trends section above, there is a decent amount related to course history that have proven quite predictive over the years. A major theme in the trends is past playing history at Kapalua. As many PGA veterans have commented, experience matters at this course. No first-time player has won here since 2008. Out of the 26 players in this field who have played before, there were only seven top 10s in their first appearance with an average finish position of 16th.

Patrick Cantlay spoke about how important experience is on this course by saying, “I think you have to hit more shots around this golf course. So I think there’s more half shots with the wind blowing 15 or 20 every day, and then there’s a lot more uphill or downhill dramatic shots that you have to hit.” In other words, playing in these windy conditions on uneven lies forces players to be able to hit all types of different shots. There are so many good players making their debut this week such as Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, and Matt Fitzpatrick. For the most part, I am fading each one of them because of this lack of experience.

The forecasted strength of the wind will be one of the most important things to monitor leading up to Thursday. As of now, the winds appear to be relatively moderate with gusts not higher than 20 mph on any day. If this forecast holds true there could be another record-scoring performance as players will generate one birdie opportunity after another.

But because the Hawaiian coastal weather can change so quickly, I included a sub-model with player performance on other coastal courses and rounds with winds of 15+ mph. Experience and success in the wind and preferably having a low apex ball flight are also potentially vital this week. Controlling ball flight is always crucial on a coastal course, and certain players like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth are experts in that area.

I am also strongly weighing Driving Distance over Driving Accuracy this week. With players able to pound driver on a majority of holes at Kapalua without much fear of hazards of any kind, players with added distance have an advantage. And as you see below, Driving Distance has the highest increase related to correlation to SG: Total.

With almost everyone having a good chance to hit the green, it will be the quality of the approach shot that will most likely define the result on each hole. Thus, SG: Approach is the most important stat this week. In my opinion, a player’s ability to manage approach flight and land the ball on the proper quadrant of these undulating greens so it can feed toward the hole will be the foremost factor in determining the winner.

With the threat of another 30-under winning score and essentially a putting contest, we want players who are birdie machines like Cam Smith was last year. I want to bet on golfers who have experience in handling these massive Bermuda greens and who succeed at three-putt avoidance. This is covered in my Scoring sub-model below which incorporates all of the main scoring stats this week including Birdie or Better %, Proximity to the Hole, and SG: Par 5.

Finally, historically, longshots have very little chance to win this event. As you see on the “Past Winners and Odds” section above, the average odds of the winner here since 2010 has been +1800 with only one long shot actually winning.

Honolua Bay, Hawaii Weather Forecast (January 5th-January 8th)

The Sentry Tournament of Champions Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Before we get to the final model, here’s one last piece of advice. Never blindly follow anyone’s model or predictions. Learn how to do your own research and get to know the players and their tendencies as much as possible. Have the confidence to make your own adjustments. While I am promoting certain players that I like for the week in the “Betting Selection” section, my main goal is to educate and present as much actionable data as possible to help guide you in your own betting process.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Justin Thomas +1200 (currently +1100)

Thomas checks all the boxes this week…literally. In my trends section, he is the only golfer to fit all 12 trends for the course this week. His course history here is stellar with four top-5 finishes over the past four events, including a win back in 2020. The third widest fairways on Tour at Kapalua allow him to swing freely off the tee. He is perhaps the best iron player in the world. It will most likely come down to well his putter cooperates.

(2u) Caesars

Sungjae Im +2200 (currently +1800)

Im is another selection with excellent course history at this track having finished 8th and 5th in his two trips here. He ranks in the top-6 in both my SG: Putting and Scoring model for the week. He has proven that he can turn into a birdie machine and loves playing on Bermuda courses. He is one of the best distance putters in the world, which is especially important on these huge greens. He is coming off a year with four top-10s in his last eight starts and should be in store for a huge 2023.

(1.09u) BetMGM

Sam Burns +2900 (currently +2500)

While Burns was wildly inconsistent down the stretch last season, he has still won three times over the past 15 months. Kapalua sets up very well for his style of play. With inaccuracy off the tee being one of his main weaknesses, the massive fairways will help mitigate that issue. He is the best putter in my model this week and excels on Bermuda grass surfaces. He also ranks high in Par 5 Scoring and is one of the best wedge players over the past year.

(0.82u) BetRivers

Adam Scott +6000 (currently +4000)

I jumped all over these odds when they opened this high on Monday. While Scott’s best days are behind him he still flashes upside from time to time. Though he’s only played here once recently (2021) he has a number of great finishes here from earlier in his career. He has the distance off the tee and should be able to take advantage of the par 5s. I’m also encouraged by his recent putting improvements where he has been positive in SG: P in 17 of his last 25 events.

(0.40u) Caesars

Finishing Position Picks

Top 5

Top 10

Top 20

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.

Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images