And we’re back!!
The PGA Tour wasn’t away for very long, but the 2023 calendar kicks off this week with the annual trip to Maui for the Tournament of Champions at the Kapalua Plantation Course, a unique par-73 track. As is often the case with coastal courses, wind can play a major factor, and the scenic elevation changes make for a spectacular viewing event to start the season off right. While this event has always had a strong field, as you can assume by its name, it takes on added importance this year as one of the new “elevated events” with more money on the line.
As you’d expect from an event dubbed ‘Tournament of Champions,’ we typically see a loaded field here every year. Since the 2020 PGA season was shortened due to COVID-19, the tournament invites were extended beyond the standard of the previous year’s winners only, to also include non-winners who made it to the end-of-the-year Tour Championship at East Lake. That trend has continued, with Rory McIlroy as the only qualifier who’s not teeing it up this week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about The Plantation Course at Kapalua:
Due to a number of factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score is typically in the low-to-mid 20s under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas and Smith’s victories that were separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the second-easiest course on Tour at -2.62. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers plenty of potential challenges, including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.
As far as the approach yardage ranges, there is an above-average rate of short and long approaches. Looking even closer, from 50-100 yards there is a 46% increase compared to the average Tour course. 29% of all approaches will be from wedges. With all of the lengthy holes at Kapalua, the 200+ yard range will also see an even higher overall number at 32% compared to the Tour average of 28%.
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s TOC Betting Targets
Justin Thomas
I prefer form over course history nine times out of ten, but we’re hard-pressed to find meaningful form stats at this time of year. Also, course history matters here more than your average Tour event, so I’m ok leaning on it more than normal this week. And that brings us to Justin Thomas.
Thomas has finished in the top five in four straight years at Kapalua, winning this event twice in 2017 and 2019. He’s shown the ability to thrive when it’s at its windiest, and he’s been able to contend when the conditions are far softer, the wind is relatively average, and the scoring goes low. As mentioned above, both long and short irons are key to a successful week at Kapalua, and few in the world do it better than Justin Thomas.
To Win: 11/1 DraftKings
Sungjae Im
“You’re not going to find a slopier golf course than this. There are so many awkward little lies, ball above your feet, below your feet, and then downhill, and then you’re hitting up the hill. Things like that you just don’t find anywhere besides maybe here and Augusta, or at least that I’ve played.”
“The best putters are going to win. They’re so grainy, and it’s kind of like, it reminds me a little bit of Augusta on the greens.”
Both of these quotes are from Brooks Koepka, and I find them fascinating. The elevation changes and unique greens are signature elements to both the Plantation Course and Augusta National, two courses that aren’t often linked, and that may be a mistake. One golfer in this field who’s found success at both places is Sungjae Im.
Im backed up his fifth-place debut in 2021 with an eight-place showing in 2022. He’s also posted two strong showings at Augusta in his young career, a T2 in 2020 and a T8 last spring. He’s finished inside the top 20 in seven of his past nine starts, five at T8 or better, including three T2 finishes. He’s been close to finding his way back to the winner’s circle, and while I wish the number was a bit longer than 20/1, I’m confident that he’ll be in contention this week, so I’m willing to pay it.
To Win: 20/1 BetMGM
Max Homa
Look, Max Homa is just that dude now. He may not have the smile of Viktor Hovland or the sexy off-the-tee game of Cameron Young, but he does have big boy hardware, earned at big boy golf course against big boy competition. I don’t mean to besmirch Hovland or Young; I think they’re both incredible talents, but they shouldn’t be priced at 18 or 20/1 when Homa is in the low to mid-30s.
In my humble opinion, Homa was the Tour’s most improved player, showing improvements throughout the bag, and that’s reflected in his strokes-gained numbers over previous years. He’s played here twice, with last year’s T15 being his best showing. He’s one of the best Par-5 scorers on Tour, and he’s one of the best wedge players in the world from 100 yards in, relevant at Kapalua with a 46% increase in this range versus an average Tour event.
To Win: 35/1 PointsBet
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