2023 RBC Canadian Open – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

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*If looking to place a live outright bet, these would be my best current recommendations

Rory McIlroy (+280 to win) has been dominant off the tee gaining 6.33 strokes on the field thus far which is putting a wedge in his hands on almost two-thirds of his holes. While you might be thinking that could be a negative for him considering how much he has struggled recently with his wedges, he had his best round with that club today, gaining 0.64 strokes from inside 150 yards. All the cards are lining up for McIlroy to win his third straight Canadian Open.

I have zero faith that C.T. Pan will be anywhere near the lead by the time he makes the turn to the back nine on Sunday. He is a negative “Sunday” player over his last 50 fourth rounds, and in his last 24 has only gained on the field in 54% of them. He also did most of his damage on Saturday with the putter, gaining 2.03 compared to 0.42 ball-striking. Justin Rose (+500) would be my next choice considering he is a veteran presence with win equity and is scoring throughout his bag this week. Though most, including myself, are rooting for Tommy Fleetwood to win, until he actually shows that he can take control of a tournament and close one out, his doubters will continue to be out in full force. Nick Taylor (+1600) and Corey Conners (+2500) would be my two dark horses. Each is multiple shots back, but the two Canadians will have the home crowd on their side and both have streaky upside when they get hot with the putter.

Weather Forecast – Toronto, Ontario

Showdown Wave Edge: None

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.