With the U.S. Open fast approaching, the PGA Tour heads north of the border to the province of Ontario for the 111th edition of the Canadian Open. Located near the center of the Greater Toronto area, Oakdale Golf & Country Club will host the tournament for the first time in its history and will represent the 37th different course to host this national event.
The tournament will be held on a composite routing from Oakdale’s 27-holes, 18 of which were designed by legendary Canadian golf architect Stanley Thompson in 1926 with Canadian Golf Hall of Fame member Robbie Robinson adding the other nine in 1957. The entire 27 holes were renovated in recent years by noted Canadian restoration expert Ian Andrew.
Oakdale is a classical, tree-lined, parkland course with undulating terrain, meandering fairways, thick bluegrass rough, and tiered greens. Black Creek runs through the over 200 acres of property on which Oakdale is built and affects four of the holes. It will be a unique setup as the front nine is expected to play significantly tougher than the back nine. Oakdale has been described as a slightly easier version of St. George’s Golf & Country Club, which was host to last year’s Canadian Open. I would expect a winning score in the 18- to 23-under range.
With sloped fairways on many holes and others that pinch in near the landing zones, combined with some of the longest rough of the year and numerous greens with false fronts, accuracy both off the tee and on approach will be crucial. From that perspective, Oakdale should somewhat prepare the 18-plus players who already have their ticket punched for the challenge ahead at the following week’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.
The Field
Though not an elevated event, as is typical the week before a major, there is a solid, top-heavy field for this year’s Canadian Open with 10 of the top 30 and 24 of the top 100 in the OWGR in attendance including Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Sahith Theegala and Justin Rose.
McIlroy has dominated this event in recent years and looks to win for the third straight time. In 2019, he demolished the field beating both Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson by seven strokes. After being canceled in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Canadian Open returned last year at St. George’s Golf and Country Club where McIlroy triumphed again thanks to an 8-under final round.
Ironically, no Canadian golfer has won their national open since Pat Fletcher in 1954. Several notable Canadians in the field this week will try to change that fact including Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor, Adam Svensson, Mackenzie Hughes, and Taylor Pendrith. Their chances this year might be better than ever as three different Canadians enter the week having won a tournament already this season in Conners, Svensson, and Hughes.
2023 RBC Canadian Open – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Weak Fields
- SG: Courses With Long Rough
With a course that is new to everyone in an event with a top-heavy field, and with the U.S. Open next week, it is a great week to go a bit lighter. My approach to tournaments on courses that have never been seen before is to focus more on long-term data, especially considering how weak the bottom third of this field is. It is a great week to focus on the best approach players and putters who have had past success in similar easy-scoring conditions.
For outrights, it’s a great week to dig deeper for value in the mid-tier of golfers. While McIlroy has dominated this tournament over the years, who knows where his mind is at after the events on Tuesday related to the PGA/LIV merger. Many of the other players at the top of the board (minus Burns, Fitzpatrick and Rose) do not have a positive history of winning tournaments here in North America. Also, not a single player (with the exception of the few Canadians that have played this course) has any experience at this course. Finally, though the thick rough might present some issues, Oakdale appears to be an easy-scoring course that favors accuracy off the tee over distance. These factors bring more players down the board into the mix and is why I have gone with a good mix of longshots for outrights.
As for finish position bets, I’m focusing on the core group of top-30 players in the OWGR who have a proven track record of consistently high finishes in both the short and long term. I also really like a few of the DP World Tour players to make some noise this week, especially Adrian Meronk, Nicolai Hojgaard and Aaron Cockerill.
As for the course and what it will take to win this week, there will definitely be a premium on hitting the fairway. Whether it’s the tree-lined sloping fairways or the thick penal rough, golfers who are in the best position off the tee to attack some potentially tricky pin placements on the greens will have the best chance for success. Not only do numerous fairways pinch tighter near the landing zones, the slopes often tilt toward the rough or fairway bunkers making it difficult to control accuracy.
One area the players won’t have to worry about as much is shaping their drives. With only two slight doglegs, most holes are straight with everything right in front of them. Golfers do have options off the tee. Players can club down on almost any hole and still reach most greens with longer irons. They can also choose to blast away with driver and attempt the “bomb and gauge” method by leaving themselves wedges into the greens. This is especially true on the back nine where the fairway landing zones are a bit wider. Similar to the last few events at Oak Hill and Muirfield Village, Good Drive % on other courses with long rough should be a quality metric to analyze this week.
With the greens at Oakdale having multiple difficult options for pin placements thanks to the numerous crowns and tiers on many of the putting surfaces, proximity to the hole and precision on approach will be crucial as always. Other greens slope sharply from back to front making it key for players to hit their approach shots beyond the false fronts to the proper quadrant.
Whether using driver or clubbing down off the tee, approach play from inside 150 yards, and especially from the 75-125 yard range will be pivotal for generating the most scoreable birdie opportunities. Players should have ample opportunities, especially on the back nine, to attack greens with a wedge in their hands.
Players that miss the green will mostly have to deal with rough areas along with the numerous bunkers that surround each putting surface. Other than the aprons and false fronts on certain holes, there are not many “short-grass” chipping opportunities.
Greens are expected to run around a 12 on the stimpmeter with the potential for higher speeds on the weekend. Greens are a mixture of 80% bentgrass and 20% Poa annua. These are the same greens at Oakdale that will have been used over the past century. Many are full of character, and their sloping will test the patience and putting skills of golfers, especially with some of the unique pin placements that will be utilized.
Most Important Stats For Success at Oakdale Golf & CC
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Fairways Gained
- Good Drive % (Rough)
- SG: Par 4
- Proximity 100-175 yds
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
- SG: Total (Easy Scoring Courses)
- SG: ARG
- 3-Putt Avoidance
Weather Forecast – Toronto, Ontario
The RBC Canadian Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Corey Conners +2000
Conners is the highest-ranked Canadian in the field and also the golfer in this field that has the most experience on this course as he has played in numerous editions of Ontario’s Better-Ball Championships which have been held at Oakdale since 1959. He finished fourth in my model this week, and his accuracy off-the-tee and on approach fit this course perfectly. He is the second-best ball-striker and has a great chance to win his third PGA Tour event.
(1.2u) BetRivers
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Fleetwood continues to get closer to his first PGA Tour victory. He is in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career in the States with four top-18 finishes in the last three months. He has gained strokes on approach in 10 of his last 11 events and his overall consistency and accuracy off the tee will also be an advantage at Oakdale. I expect him to use two of his main strengths, his wedges and putter, to his advantage this week.
(1.09u) FanDuel
Adrian Meronk +5500
Meronk continues to impress with each passing event. Whether playing in a DP World Tour event or here in America, the positive results have been consistent. Coming off a win at the Italian Open a month ago, he finished 40th on a difficult course at the PGA Championship. He then followed it up two weeks ago with a fifth-place finish at the KLM Open. As the 45th-ranked player in the world, he leads the DP World Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee and is 15th in strokes gained approach. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game and his world-class skills should give him a great chance to contend in this weaker Canadian Open field.
(0.43u) BetRivers
Adam Svensson +8000
Svensson ranked eighth in my model this week thanks to his strong ball-striking and excellent form, both recent and long-term. Not only has he won this season, but he continues to improve weekly with eight top-41 finishes in the last six months including ninth at the Genesis and 13th at the PLAYERS.
(0.30u) FanDuel
Sam Bennett +25000
With most folks salivating over Ludvig Aberg making his professional debut this week, Bennett makes for a great under-the-radar play this week. He contended at the top of the leaderboard for three days at the Masters, finishing in 16th place and is one of the best young prospects on Tour. While he struggled at the Memorial in his first event as a pro, he has the pedigree and is the perfect type of “boom or bust” play to target at such a value price.
(0.09u) DraftKings
Other Outright Selections
Eric Cole +10000 (0.24u) – BetRivers
Aaron Wise +12500 (0.19u) – BetRivers
Michael Kim +12500 (0.19u) – BetRivers
Mark Hubbard +12500 (0.19u) – PointsBet
Brandon Wu +12500 (0.19u) – PointsBet
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Matt Fitzpatrick +150 (1u) –
Top 20
- Sam Burns -115 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- Justin Rose -105 (1.1u) – DraftKings
- Shane Lowry +105 (1u) – DraftKings
- Corey Conners +110 (1u) – BetRivers
- Tommy Fleetwood +110 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Adrian Meronk -110 (1.1u)
- Adam Svensson +125 (1u)
Top 40 – all FanDuel
- Eric Cole -115 (1.2u)
- Nick Taylor -110 (1.1u)
- Mark Hubbard +110 (1u)
- Nicolai Hojgaard +110 (1u)
- Michael Kim +115 (1u)
- Brendon Todd +120 (1u)
- Sam Bennett +180 (1u)
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images