Sandwiched between last week’s prestigious Memorial and next week’s U.S. Open is a tricky spot for the Canadian Open, the Tour’s third-oldest event. Add the new wrinkle of designated event status, or in this case, lack thereof, and it’s not shocking to see just 24 of the OWGR’s eligible top 100 teeing it up at Toronto’s Oakdale Golf & Country Club.
Canadians are famously polite, so of course, they rotate venues for their national open. This is our first look at Oakdale, a par 72 tree-lined Parkland-style course with an official distance listed at 7,264 yards, though reports say distance can and will vary based on the tee placements.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. We can all learn about Oakdale together:
Oakdale lies on a great piece of rolling terrain with elevation changes throughout the property. Whether it’s the holes that play uphill, the undulating fairways, or the crowned greens with false fronts, there aren’t many flat sections on this course. Hitting from uneven lies will be one of the challenges that golfers face this week. Players will get a taste of this on the very first hole as they will be hitting off an elevated tee down into a valley and then uphill on approach into an elevated green.
While Oakdale is a par-72 course, it only has three par-3s along with three par-5s. The par-3s are standard in length (193, 208, 172) and are each quality birdie opportunities. All of the par-5s are reachable in two shots, with the 590-yard 7th hole offering a downhill drive off the tee. With two additional par-4s compared to a traditional par-72 layout, par-4 scoring takes on added importance this week. Five of these holes being in the 350-400 yard range emphasizes the priority of accuracy over distance off the tee and allows for players to take less than driver in order to stay out of the rough.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b
Noonan’s RBC Canadian Open Betting Targets
Justin Rose
I don’t love this betting board very much, and the prices at the top are particularly unappealing. This event has a few things working against it. I find the week before a major difficult to handicap, with varying degrees of engagement depending on one’s current form and status heading into the following week. We’re also on a new course, and while I think Ron did a tremendous job trying to capture what we do know about Oakdale in his course preview, there’s still a bit of unknown in terms of setup and how it’ll play. In these instances, I lean more on bigger-picture stats like SG: APP, SG: T2G, and SG: Total.
Over the past 36 rounds, Justin Rose ranks second in both SG: APP and overall SG: Total. Oakdale features bentgrass greens, Rose’s preferred putting surface. Considering we’re expecting low scores this week, I want to weigh that a bit, especially when looking to parse through the plays at the top of the board. He’s finished inside the top 25 in five of his past six starts, and I like his chances here as he looks to secure his second win of the season.
Brendon Todd
Another golfer who loves putting on bentgrass greens, Brendon Todd’s ability to find fairways and make putts should come in handy this week. Early reports have the rough being grown out to 4-5 inches and acting as the course’s main defense, so I’m deferring to accurate drivers over distance this week. Todd finished T8 a few starts back at Quail Hollow, another track that prioritizes accuracy off the tee. His lack of distance was an issue there, but it shouldn’t be here based on the layout.
Todd’s best finish this season was his second-place finish at Pebble Beach, an event won by Justin Rose.
Eric Cole
Finding fairways has not been at the heart of Eric Cole’s 2023 run, but I felt his opening price of 100/1 was egregious in this field, considering how well he’s been playing this season. Cole’s best two finishes this season, a solo second at the Honda Classic and a T5 in Mexico, show that Cole’s game can play anywhere.
He ranks fifth in this field in SG: Total over the past 50 rounds. He’s among the top 20 in the field in SG: APP, SG: T2G, birdie or better rate, and short par-4 scoring, and he’s a positive bentgrass putter, so there’s a lot to like here.
Mark Hubbard
Mark Hubbard is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, so it’s difficult to call out his outright betting number, but he shouldn’t be posted north of 100/1, given this field and his form. He’s been absolutely dialed in with his irons of late, gaining strokes in six straight events and leading this field in SG: APP over the past 24 rounds.
Another T30 last week at Memorial was Hubbard’s fifth in six weeks, three of which were top 20s. He’s played his best golf on bentgrass greens in easier scoring conditions, which is what I’m anticipating this week.
- To Win: +13000 DraftKings
- Top 40: +120 FanDuel
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Tommy Fleetwood and Keith Mitchell – T40 (+139)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.