With the best players in the world descending on the immaculate grounds of the Augusta National Golf Club, “A Tradition Unlike Any Other” arrives once again for the 87th edition of The Masters. Played at one of the most private golf clubs anywhere, Augusta National is also the most recognizable golf course in the world. Built at the height of the Great Depression on one of the Southeast’s most popular plant nurseries, each hole on the course is named after the tree or flower that it has become associated with.
Whether it’s driving down “Magnolia Lane” or surviving “Amen Corner”, the brilliant “azaleas and dogwoods” or wearing the “Green Jacket”, so many words and phrases have become legendary over the years thanks to the tradition of this hallowed ground. Whether in person or watching from afar, the sensory overload and the absolute beauty of the course are something to behold.
Featuring generous fairways, demanding approach shots, and severely sloped and lightning-fast green complexes, Augusta National is a course that will test every club in the bag and each player’s fortitude along with it. Players in current form, with positive past experience at Augusta National, Carry Distance off the tee, long-iron approach accuracy, creative short-game skills, and a knack for scoring on par 5s will have an edge over competitors who do not possess those traits.
The Field
The Masters is the only major golf event that is played at the same course every year. Players competing here receive their opportunity by invitation only after meeting certain qualifications, and thus the field is usually only around 90 total golfers with the cut on Friday being determined by the top-50 and ties making it through to the weekend. The field sits at 88 golfers for this year’s event and is among the strongest ever assembled. Every single player ranked in the current top-50 in the world will be here with the exception of Aaron Wise who withdrew last week.
The greatest legends in the history of the sport have graced these grounds over the years. Jack Nicklaus has won the most Masters events with six. Tiger Woods has won five green jackets while Arnold Palmer has been champion four times. World No. 1 golfer Scottie Scheffler will try to become the first back-to-back champion at the Masters in more than two decades. Jon Rahm is still looking for his first Green Jacket but enters the week having won five of his last 11 events. And Rory McIlroy will once again attempt to complete the career grand slam.
There is not much debate that this year’s Masters is the most intriguing golf tournament ever. Not only is the three-headed monster of Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy peaking at the right time, but one of the game’s greatest players, Tiger Woods, is slated to play and might be the healthiest he has been in years.
But perhaps the biggest storyline is the 18 players from the renegade LIV Golf League who are set to compete at Augusta National. The PGA Tour and the upstart LIV tour have been on a collision course since last year when certain players began to defect to the Saudi-funded venture. This is the first time since last year that we can watch Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas actually compete against Patrick Reed and Cam Smith.
Even a sniff of rivalry and animosity between players on both sides will only add to the drama that will climax on Sunday afternoon. Six past Masters winners from the LIV Golf League will in attendance including Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel, and Phil Mickelson.
2023 Masters – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Difficult Courses/Strong Fields
- SG: Winds 15+ mph
- SG: Majors
My betting strategy this week is very simple. Related to the statistical and past Masters’ trends for this event, I am focusing on a very specific list of attributes. Each of these makes up this week’s “Super 7” metric in the model for this event. These include distance off the tee, gaining tee-to-green with recent play, Par 5 Scoring, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green and past performance at Augusta National and in other major tournaments.
As for players participating in the Masters from the LIV Golf League – most are not high on my radar from a betting perspective. With no data combined with fewer events, weaker fields, unchallenging courses, and an emphasis on team play over individual play, it is hard for me to trust that they are in any type of quality form entering such an intense tournament. Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and Taylor Gooch are the ones that I trust the most.
Distance Off the Tee
The first one is players who are long off the tee, and who especially rank high in Carry Distance. 13 of the past 14 winners ranked 47th or better for the season in Driving Distance in the year leading up to their Masters’ win.
Simply put, Augusta National is a bombers paradise. When Bobby Jones was designing Augusta National he wanted golfers to “have an unrestricted feeling of being able to swing away amid a wide swath of parkland”. When analyzing the numbers off the tee, the data most definitely bears that out. Players are free to bomb away with driver without any fear of thick rough or water hazards of any kind. Driving distance is one of the highest on Tour at 295 yards.
This year, Augusta National will stretch out to its longest distance ever at 7,545 yards. At that length, it measures as the eighth longest course in the annual Tour rotation. And with the fairway grass being mown in the direction from green to tee in the opposite direction of the hole, rollout on drives will be minimized even further. With easy-to-hit fairways and no harsh penalty from being in the minimal “second-cut” of rough, bombers have a distinct advantage. More than half of the driving holes also lack fairway bunkers. Added distance also helps on ensuring players can reach each of the par 5s in two shots by hitting longer irons into the greens instead of fairway woods. This is significantly more vital this year with the par 5 13th hole being lengthened by 30 yards.
From a weather angle, over the past 10 days, the area has received over two inches of rainfall. This should soften up the fairways making the course play even longer and giving an advantage to players with more carry distance off the tee. And with cooler temperatures forecast in the 45-60 degree range along with westerly winds, the ball will not travel as far. This emphasizes even more of a need for distance off-the-tee in this year’s tournament.
SG: Tee-to-Green
Next on the list is recent Tee-to-Green (T2G) form. Each of the past 13 Masters winners gained a minimum total of 18 strokes gained T2G in the four events leading up to their Masters win.
Recent form is everything in golf. History has proven that golfers entering Masters week in superb form have a much better chance at success than those coming in struggling with their game. This has been exemplified in the past with a player’s Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (T2G) in the four events leading up to their Masters win. The T2G metric measures a player’s strokes gained off-the-tee, on approach, and around the green. It does not use putting as part of the equation. Putting is much more volatile with even the best putters having bad weeks, and the worst putters sometimes have great weeks. Both history and research show that being an elite ball-striker is the quickest way to the top of major championship leaderboards. Gaining strokes off-the-tee or on approach is the foundation. Combine that with the necessary touch that is needed chipping from tight lies around the treacherous Augusta National greens and it’s easy to see why T2G is so vital this week.
Here are the SG: T2G totals for the last eleven Masters winners in the four events leading up to their victory.
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 20.1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 18.5
2020: Dustin Johnson – 36.1
2019: Tiger Woods – 22.2
2018: Patrick Reed – 18.0
2017: Sergio Garcia – 31.4
2016: Danny Willett – 18.2
2015: Jordan Spieth – 28.6
2014: Bubba Watson – 37.9
2013: Adam Scott – 24.2
2012: Bubba Watson – 40.9
Par 5 Scoring
11 of the last 13 winners ranked inside the top 40 for the season in Par 5 Scoring in the year leading up to their Masters win. With it being so important for players to be aggressive and attack the par-5s, it will be paramount for players to score on those holes well above the field average. Another advantage of a longer distance off the tee is the ability to take shorter, more lofted irons into the firm, bouncy greens.
The data supporting its importance is quite staggering. Since 2009, Par 5 scoring at the Masters accounts for 72% of the winners’ total output. For the last two winners, Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama, 95% of their scoring was on these holes. In the chart below, you can see how each of the champions since 2009 has fared on the par 5s compared to their par 3/4 scoring.
SG: Approach
It has been said that Augusta National is one of the few courses that present two challenges on almost every hole. The first is a challenge to reach the green on approach and the second is a challenge to solve the tricky undulating contours after reaching the green. While length is important, this is definitely a second-shot course. With so many approach shots being hit from uneven lies combined with firm sloping greens, ball-striking is paramount for success. The course ranks as the sixth-toughest course to gain shots on approach. Over the past eight Masters, the winner has finished 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 5th, 4th, and 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week.
As previously mentioned, while being in position to approach the tough hole locations from the proper angle is important, it is only half the battle. When greens as firm as the ones at Augusta come into play, even great approaches are often unrewarded as balls will bounce far from the hole or roll off the green entirely. This year, it remains to be seen how soft or firm the greens will be. That will depend on how much of a deluge of rain actually falls along with how quickly the SubAir system can get the greens dried out to their preferred firm condition.
Elite iron players such as Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa who have amazing distance control and can get the ball to spin and stop have a distinct advantage. But with 67% of approach shots coming from the 150-250 yard range, trying to control trajectory, location, and spin with longer clubs is not an easy task, even for the elites. Also related to the firm greens is that players with higher ball flights and those who are approaching from shorter distances with more lofted clubs have an edge as well. It’s basic physics. Balls landing from a higher trajectory will stop closer to their intended location than those on a lower plane angle.
And here’s another thing to consider which makes the approach game even more tricky. Most of the greens are either elevated or protected by bunkers or water on the short side. This naturally forces players to hit more conservative shots that carry onto the back sections of the greens well past the trouble areas. The problem with this is that most of the greens slope from front to back. If golfers can’t spin the ball back toward the hole they will be faced with long downhill putts. This is also why playing experience and course history matter so much at Augusta. The Jordan Spieths and Brooks Koepkas and Adam Scotts of the field – who have built up a great deal of knowledge here – know exactly where they can and can’t miss on each hole.
Around the Green Play
10 of the last 10 winners had gained at least 0.25 strokes Around the Green in the 16 rounds prior to their Masters win. Augusta National features some of the toughest greens to hold on approach. This leads to some of the tightest lies around the green that players will face all year. Whether chipping from the short grass to get into birdie position on a par 5 or simply scrambling to save par, Augusta National places more of a premium on short-game technique and skill than any other course. Hitting cleanly under the ball while attempting to control where it goes on these treacherous greens puts extra pressure on golfers who are oftentimes just trying to survive the hole.
One of the best short-game players on Tour, Jason Day, gave a good example of the touch needed here. “Around the greens, you definitely have to have that touch. I always say you have to hit it hard enough but soft enough around here. If you get that, then you understand what it means to chip around Augusta. You could be hitting a chip shot and you might hit the same chip shot, one with less spin and one with more spin, and they could be 20, 30 feet apart, but you could hit it on the same line. So you have to be precise here.”
Here are the SG: Around the Green averages per round from the last 10 winners at Augusta National in the 16 rounds leading into the Masters tournament.
2022: Scottie Scheffler – 0.43
2021: Hideki Matsuyama – 0.66
2020: Dustin Johnson – 0.33
2019: Tiger Woods – 0.53
2018: Patrick Reed – 0.56
2017: Sergio Garcia – 0.38
2016: Danny Willett – 0.71
2015: Jordan Spieth – 0.63
2014: Bubba Watson – 0.26
2013: Adam Scott – 0.42
Augusta National Course History/Past Major Performance
Along with course experience at Augusta National being more important than at any other course, players constantly speak about the learning curve that is necessary to have success here. Whether it’s knowing where to miss below the hole on a particular approach shot or having a knowledge bank in your mind of how putts break on certain holes, the more repetitions players gain, the better their chances are to win. As 2018 winner Patrick Reed said, “It truly is a course knowledge golf course. You need to know where to put the ball on certain pins and if you miss you need to miss it in certain spots because there’s some areas around here that it’s literally impossible, unless you make a 15‑, 18‑footer.”
No Masters debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. To extend the value of playing experience at Augusta even further, 19 of the last 24 winners had played in at least three previous Masters before their win. Per that same Data Golf study, a player experiences significant jumps in performance in their 3rd, 7th, and 9th Masters. One peaks at the Masters in their 9th appearance and continues to enjoy sustained success up through their 13th appearance. The other trends in this group equate to some level of previous success on this course, whether simply making the cut or having successful finishes in prior years.
As you will see in the model, I’m targeting players who have played well in strong fields and on difficult scoring courses. Experience winning tournaments, along with the pressure and everything that goes into those occurrences, is a definite pre-requisite for becoming a Masters champion. And not only that, but being in contention in a recent major event also seems to add to a player’s confidence in having success in future “big-stage” events. In a pressure-packed moment of time as critical as contending during “Sunday at the Masters”, and being able to draw from those past lessons and experiences, is an edge that can push a player over the top to a green jacket celebration.
Finally, if the windy forecast holds for the weekend, I will look at players who have had past success in those conditions. Players like Jason Day, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood have each proven strong in gusty winds and poor weather conditions.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
- SG: APP
- Course History
- Driving Distance
- SG: T2G L24 rds
- Par-5 Scoring
- Majors History
- Scrambling
- SG: ARG
- Par-4 Scoring: Tough Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
Augusta, Georgia Weather Forecast (April 6-April 9)
The Masters Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Rory McIlroy +1050
A perfect storm is brewing for McIlroy to finally capture the final leg of the grand slam here at the Masters. Coming off a third-place finish at the Dell Match Play event, along with gaining 25 strokes tee-to-green in his prior four tournaments, his current form is impeccable. While he hasn’t won yet at Augusta National, he has six top 10 finishes since 2015 including a runner-up last year. It appears he made a successful equipment change with his new driver and putter yielding positive results. With cooler wet conditions for the weekend, not only does he get the better end of the weather draw, but his Carry Distance and length of the tee, along with his elite long-iron play and experience on these grounds give him a great opportunity to put on the Green Jacket for the first time.
(2.28u) DraftKings
Jason Day +4000 (currently +2800)
It appears Day is fully back to his world-class form of 2016. Though the wins haven’t come yet, he has shown amazing consistency over the past six months since making changes to his swing. This includes 11 top-21s in his last 12 events. He is seventh in the field in the all-important SG: T2G in his last four events gaining a total of 21.4 strokes. He has eight top-30 finishes here in his last 10 Masters.
(0.60u) FanDuel
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
This number was just too high to pass for the 2021 Masters champion. While he has been touch-and-go recently with a lingering neck injury, he has back-to-back top 15 finishes including a 5th at The PLAYERS Championship. This also includes consecutive weeks of gaining six-plus strokes ball-striking. He is a big-game hunter who has the all-around tee-to-green game to find himself in the mix come Sunday. Seeing him fit 18 of the 19 winning trends here at Augusta National was enough to push me over the top.
(0.48u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Jon Rahm -110 (1.1u) – DraftKings
- Jordan Spieth +170 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20
- Justin Thomas -120 (1.2u) – DraftKings
- Dustin Johnson -120 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Jason Day -110 (1.1u) – BetRivers
- Hideki Matsuyama +138 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 30
- Shane Lowry -105 (1.1u) – FanDuel
Top 40
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