2023 John Deere Classic – DraftKings Picks

Strategy

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Similar to the last two events, expect another low-scoring tournament at this week’s John Deere Classic played at TPC Deere Run. On a course with wide fairways, few hazards off the tee, and soft, receptive conditions, scores should again seep into the 20-under and beyond range. In one of the weakest fields we will see all year, this is one of those times where pure talent can overtake recent poor form when filling out your DraftKings lineups.

Case in point, Cameron Young. While he hasn’t been playing up to the same potential he showed at the start of his career, other than very poor putting, he has not been playing that badly. He has actually gained strokes ball-striking in his last five events even though he doesn’t have much to show for it. With the most length among the upper tier, Deere Run is a course he can overpower. Over the last 12 months, he is the best player in this field, with only Russell Henley within earshot of him. He has multiple top-five finishes in “birdie-fest” events, leads the in Opportunities Gained this season and is third in Birdie or Better %. And at only 10% ownership, the leverage opportunity of being overweight compared to the field is tremendous. With the inconsistent Ludvig Aberg priced higher than him, it is only common sense to get Young into your lineups.

The natural tendency this week will be to have a more balanced lineup build because of the lack of viable options in the $6K range. There is extreme volatility this week. In events with the potential for low scoring such as this one, more players have a chance to contend because of the ease of the course. Literally, any player could miss the cut. This could also be the week where a $6K player actually wins.

Because this event is so wide open and fits every playing style, we have also seen numerous younger players get their first win at this event in years past. Players who are not making birdies in bunches from the opening tee on Thursday will get left behind. This is a good week to widen out your player pool a little. For me, similar to last week, that means going from a typical player pool of around 40 players to around 50-55. With the wealth of solid options in the $7K range, it is really important to do your research and get that range correct this week.

With the $7K range stacked again this week along with a couple of high upside $6K plays in Davis Thompson and Joel Dahmen, playing two of Russell Henley, Denny McCarthy and Cameron Young or three golfers from the $9K range are each viable strategies this week. Other players that I will be overweight on and will incorporate into numerous core builds include: Russell Henley, Adam Schenk, Eric Cole, Alex Smalley, Patrick Rodgers, Michael Kim, Adam Svensson, Callum Tarren, Nick Hardy, Carson Young, Justin Lower, Davis Thompson and Joel Dahmen. My biggest fades this week are Aberg, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore and J.T. Poston.

2023 John Deere Classic – Narratives and Important Metrics

In analyzing past winners at the John Deere Classic two key things stick out when building lineups this week – wedge play and putting. Players like Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have had a combined five wins here over the past 12 events. Finding the best wedge players is simple. In the model this week much of the Approach section is weighted towards the best from the proximity range of 75-150 yards. With 43% of approaches coming from that range, many of the past contenders here were ranked high in that split.

As far as the best putters, that is a bit more tricky because the greens at TPC Deere Run are some of the easiest on Tour in which to gain strokes putting. Obviously, in a putting contest we can target the players that we know are great putters such as Denny McCarthy, Eric Cole and Justin Lower. But we have also seen two of the last three winners have reputations as horrible putters in Lucas Glover and Dylan Frittelli. Even as bad putters they won by gaining a combined 10.5 strokes with their flatstick.

So along with quality putters, we should also be targeting any player who can get streaky hot with their flatstick. A perfect example of a player who fits that mold for this week’s event is Russell Henley. He is a great ball-striker, and excellent with his wedges, but ranks 120th in the putting model this week. He does, however, have the ability to pop and have a spike week with his putter as evidenced by the 3.2 strokes gained at the Charles Schwab a few weeks ago. And his recent form has been trending upward. I also like to look back at putting history on these greens. And Henley has gained 6.6 total strokes putting in his only three trips here to TPC Deere Run.

Expecting a birdie-fest, I’m also highly weighing Birdies or Better and Opportunites Gained within 15 feet. Even though there are only three par-5’s, players must birdie those holes to keep up with the scoring. With both fairways and greens so easy to hit, along with the scoring and putting being so easy, it brings more of the field into contention.

There is not as much of a premium on ball striking because even poor ball strikers can still hit greens with ease here. This leads to a lot more randomness and volatility. Literally, anything could happen this week which means there is a great chance for a longshot type winner. It is an excellent week to take a chance on “boom or bust” type of players who have extremely high upside. Patrick Rodgers ($8.3K) and Callum Tarren ($7.3K) are two players who fit that mold this week.

That being said, we still want consistent fairway finders. The list of past winners is full of shorter more accurate drivers. Golfers who keep their ball in the fairway will be best able to attack the soft and receptive greens on approach. Last year, every player in the top-five gained at least three strokes off the tee, including two of the shorter and more accurate drivers on Tour, J.T. Poston and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Showing again how important it is to find the short grass off the tee, approach shots from the fairway have an average proximity to the hole of 29.5 feet while approaches from the rough average 46.7 feet. This “Rough Penalty” margin of 17.8% is one of the largest on Tour.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Deere Run

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better %
SG: Approach
Good Drive %
Par 4 Scoring
Proximity: 75-150 yds
SG: Easy Scoring Courses
SG: Putting (Bent)
Opportunities Gained
Par 5: 550-600 yds
SG: ARG

Weather Forecast – Silvis, Illinois

John Deere Classic – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.