The PGA Tour heads southwest from Detroit to the banks of the Rock River near the Illinois and Iowa border for the John Deere Classic played at TPC Deere Run. Beginning in 1971 as the Quad Cities Open, the event moved to its current home, TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois in 2000. Other than the Covid-affected year of 2021, the event has been a consistent presence on the Tour schedule.
Coming off two straight “birdie-fests”, this week will present more of the same. In what typically ends up as a putting contest that culminates in a shootout, TPC Deere Run is a course with wide fairways, receptive greens, and relatively simple putting surfaces. It is very scoreable for players who excel at managing their way strategically around the course instead of trying to overpower it. It’s no surprise then to see that winners have eclipsed the 18-under mark in each of the last 13 tournaments including last year’s champion, J.T. Poston who posted a 21-under score.
While all playing styles can have success at TPC Deere Run, this course has favored fairway finders and accurate wedge players who can get streaky hot with their putter. Past winners such as Steve Stricker, Jordan Spieth, and Brian Harman exemplify these traits.
The Field
The strength of the field at the John Deere Classic is usually among the weakest on Tour given the event’s place on the schedule. This year the tournament falls two weeks before the Open Championship with most of the elite players choosing to rest this week before heading across the pond to play in next week’s Scottish Open. The cupboard is quite bare once again this year as Cameron Young (No. 19) is the only top-25 player in the entire field.
There is actually more depth than in years past in the mid-tier range as top-50 players like Russell Henley, Denny McCarthy, Sepp Straka, Chris Kirk, Emiliano Grillo, Nick Taylor, Taylor Moore and Seamus Power will all be in attendance. Throw in young phenoms like Ludvig Aberg and Gordon Sargent and it’s definitely not as bad as it seems. Many of the recent past champions will also be playing including J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson, Jonathan Byrd and Michael Kim.
2023 John Deere Classic – Betting Narratives and Strategies
In analyzing past winners at the John Deere Classic two key things stick out to focus on for selecting both the outright winner and finishing position bets – wedge play and putting. Players like Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have a combined five wins here over the past 12 events. Finding the best wedge players is simple. In the model this week much of the Approach section is weighted towards the best from the proximity range of 75-150 yards. With 43% of approaches coming from that range, many of the past contenders here were ranked high in that split.
As far as the best putters, that is a bit more tricky because the greens at TPC Deere Run are some of the easiest on Tour in which to gain strokes putting. Obviously, in a putting contest we can target the players that we know are great putters such as Denny McCarthy, Eric Cole and Justin Lower. But we have also seen two of the last three winners have reputations as horrible putters in Lucas Glover and Dylan Frittelli. Even as bad putters they won by gaining a combined 10.5 strokes with their flatstick.
So along with quality putters, we should also be targeting any player who can get streaky hot with their flatstick. A perfect example of a player who fits that mold for this week’s event is Russell Henley. He is a great ball-striker, and excellent with his wedges, but ranks 120th in the putting model this week. He does, however, have the ability to pop and have a spike week with his putter as evidenced by the 3.2 strokes gained at the Charles Schwab a few weeks ago. And his recent form has been trending upward. I also like to look back at putting history on these greens. And Henley has gained 6.6 total strokes putting in his only three trips here to TPC Deere Run.
Expecting a birdie-fest, I’m also highly weighing Birdies or Better and Opportunites Gained within 15 feet. Even though there are only three par-5’s, players must birdie those holes to keep up with the scoring. With both fairways and greens so easy to hit, along with the scoring and putting being so easy, it brings more of the field into contention.
There is not as much of a premium on ball striking because even poor ball strikers can still hit greens with ease here. This leads to a lot more randomness and volatility. Literally, anything could happen this week which means there is a great chance for a longshot type winner. It is an excellent week to take a chance on “boom or bust” type of players who have extremely high upside. Patrick Rodgers (+5000) and Callum Tarren (+11000) are two players who fit that mold this week.
That being said, we still want consistent fairway finders. The list of past winners is full of shorter more accurate drivers. Golfers who keep their ball in the fairway will be best able to attack the soft and receptive greens on approach. Last year, every player in the top-five gained at least three strokes off the tee, including two of the shorter and more accurate drivers on Tour, J.T. Poston and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
Showing again how important it is to find the short grass off the tee, approach shots from the fairway have an average proximity to the hole of 29.5 feet while approaches from the rough average 46.7 feet. This “Rough Penalty” margin of 17.8% is one of the largest on Tour.
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Deere Run
*In order of importance
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Approach
- Good Drive %
- Par 4 Scoring
- Proximity: 75-150 yds
- SG: Easy Scoring Courses
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Opportunities Gained
- Par 5: 550-600 yds
- SG: ARG
Weather Forecast – Silvis, Illinois
John Deere Classic – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Cameron Young +2000 (currently +1800)
While not in good current form, my reasoning on taking Cam Young is as follows: With the most length among the upper tier, Deere Run is a course he can overpower. And hough the fairways are wide, one of the main defenses of this course is the long rough. He has been one of the best on Tour out of the rough. fully expected 12s or 14s when odds were released. In this weak of a field, I would never pass up a 20. He is the most talented golfer in the Quad Cities this week, and this is a perfect course for him to get over the hump and gain momentum into the back end of the season.
(1.2u) BetRivers
Adam Schenk +3300 (currently +3000)
Schenk is the prime golfer this week who fits the winning combination of current form with three top-7s in his last five starts along with two top-6s here at TPC Deere Run over his past three events. He has now gained on approach in seven consecutive events and tends to play his best in these easier scoring birdie-fests where wedge play and putting are so key. He also ranks 5th in my Scoring model for the week.
(0.72u) BetRivers
Eric Cole +4000 (currently +3000)
Finishing sixth in the model, Cole has been trending upward for a long while. He has shown a remarkable level of consistency with 11 top-40 finishes in the 15 events he has played over the past five months. He has also shown the upside needed to win with three top-6 finishes during that same time period. From fairway to green, the data says he’s the best play overall golfer in this field. And on a course where his lack of distance off the tee is not a negative factor, I expect him to be in contention throughout.
(0.60u) BetRivers
Alex Smalley +4500
I jumped on Smalley at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic after witnessing his impressive ball-striking first-hand at his practice rounds in Detroit. While he was disappointing with his short game, losing 4.7 strokes, he gained 7.3 on approach which comes on the heels of gaining 5.8 at the Travelers where he finished ninth. He finished 16th here last year, only losing strokes putting. If he can just stay neutral with his putter, he can contend this week.
(0.36u) PointsBet
Callum Tarren +11000 (currently +8000)
Tarren is coming off the best ball-striking week of his career, gaining 10.3 strokes both off the tee and on approach which led to his best finish (29th) in eight months. The week before at the Travelers Championship he finished 33rd, highlighted by gaining 7.3 strokes ball-striking. The downside is has lost 16.2 strokes putting in his last four events. We know that he can spike with the putter though as he gained six shots at the PGA Championship. In his only visit here, he finished sixth last year. He also prefers easier scoring conditions as he ranks 25th in the model on those courses.
(0.21u) PointsBet
Other Outright Bets
- Patrick Rodgers +5000 (0.48u) – BetRivers (currently +7000)
- Dylan Wu +9000 (0.26u) – BetRivers (currently +6600)
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20 – all BetRivers
- Russell Henley -106 (1.5u)
- Denny McCarthy +105 (1u)
- Cameron Young +105 (1u)
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Ludvig Aberg -105 (1.1u)
- Adam Hadwin -105 (1.1u)
- Stephan Jaeger -105 (1.1u)
- Chris Kirk +100 (1u)
- Emiliano Grillo +100 (1.2u)
- Alex Smalley +105 (1u)
- Adam Schenk +120 (1.1u)
- Eric Cole +130 (1.1u)
Top 40
- Sepp Straka +100 (1u) – BetRivers
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +115 (1u) – FanDuel
- Dylan Wu +125 (1u) – BetRivers
- Callum Tarren +155 (1u) – FanDuel
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images