Strategy
This week presents many variables for building lineups on DraftKings. From the unique course to the unpredictability of the weather there are many different paths to take. As of now, it appears that winds on Thursday will be fairly light but still blowing steadily between 10-17 mph. They become even calmer on Friday and throughout the weekend. There are a couple of players that I am still undecided on based on the forecast. If winds stay on the calmer side, players like Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa will remain in my player pool. But I do not trust either of them if winds increase. As of Wednesday morning, there does appear to be a slight advantage for the morning wave on Thursday that tees off between 7:00-9:00 AM. The same grouping has the constant winds that are present throughout the day for everyone on Friday.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bDon’t forget that for the Open Championship it is the top-70 and ties that make it through the cut-line and into the weekend. With so many unknown and lower-tier players in this field, you can comfortably cross off around 55 players. That leaves around 100 players battling to make it through to the weekend. The rate of getting all six golfers through the cut-line should be much higher this week. This means you will need to take a few more risks with lineup construction. Personally, I am taking more of a “stars and scrubs” approach to get different with my lineups.
Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are my two favorite players on the board. I will even play them together in some lineups and will get different further on down the board by mixing and matching $6-7K players into the remaining spots. Another potential route that is viable is trying to fit as many players with win equity into your lineups as possible. This brings lesser-owned players like Hideki Matsuyama ($9.1K), Brooks Koepka ($8.5K), and Patrick Reed ($7.3K) into play and should help to differentiate your lineups.
Finally, don’t forget about including players in your pool who have high upside. These are players who could easily miss the cut but could also finish in the top-10. Some examples that come to mind include Viktor Hovland ($9.0K), Aaron Wise ($7.0K), and Hao Tong Li ($6.9K).
Keys to Success
I know it seems we always say this for each major, but this week really is as epic as it gets. The Old Course is the birthplace of golf and the world’s greatest links course – an unpredictable strategic masterpiece that will test a player’s creativity and discipline. And then you have the storylines. Could this be Tiger’s last start at the Old Course? With all of the LIV drama, will this be the last major with all the top players participating? Will the coastal winds increase enough to affect scoring or will the winning score actually get to 20-under? Can Rory finally win another major? This week is as good as it gets.
The Old Course is a par-72 measuring approximately 7,300 yards, but dry conditions have the course playing firm and fast. Because of this, it will play much shorter. There are 14 par-4s and only two par-5s and two par-3s. That means there are 16 driving holes this week. Players with distance will have an advantage, but even the shorter ones will get roll on these fairways. Seven of the par-4s play under 400 yards with at least a few being drivable off the tee.
With both massive fairways and greens, the holes at St. Andrews present golfers with a myriad of strategic options. Combine that with the volatility of scoring conditions based on the coastal weather and you have the perfect setup for an exciting and unpredictable tournament. Like it or not, there will be many good shots this week that end up taking a sidewards bounce into a bunker.
Speaking of the weather, as with any links-style course, the wind will be the ultimate decider on how difficult of a test we should expect for the week. This is why with my outright and finishing selections I have focused on players with strong history on past links courses. Even if the winds aren’t as strong as they could be, links courses have similar traits across the board which will still be in play.
Areas I have weighted more heavily in the model include driving distance, approach shots from under 125 yards, and 3-putt avoidance. With the largest greens players might see in their entire careers, the ability to lag putt and avoid 3-putts from distance will be crucial. With a whopping 14 par-4s (including seven under 400 yards), performance on those types of holes is also weighted high. With creativity paramount around these greens, elite short game players and scramblers will have an edge. For that reason, I cannot stay away from Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith again this week.
Current form has also proven to be very important for having success in past Opens. Eight of the last 10 winners has a top-10 in one of their three previous tournaments before the Open. The last five winners have finished with a top-two in one of their last three events.
To summarize – links course specialists, strong wedge players, golfers with creativity and short game skills around the greens who are great at avoiding 3-putts, and players who are in good form – these are the players to target for the 150th Open Championship.
St. Andrews, Scotland Weather Forecast (July 14-July 17)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Scrambling
- Par 4 Scoring
- SG: Links Courses
- SG: Total Last 24 Rounds
- Opportunities Gained
- Proximity 50-125 yards
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Distance
The Open Championship DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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