2022 RSM Classic DraftKings Picks

Keys To Success at Sea Island GC

f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b

As is the case for each tournament, my weekly model includes what I call the “Core 4”. Based on the data from past events at these courses, these are the four most important metrics for having success. At Sea Island, fairway finders who can hit a high percentage of greens in regulation and make a ton of putts perform very well here.

For the RSM Classic this week, the first statistic in the “Core 4” is a combination of Fairways Gained and Good Drive %. Good Drive percentage helps identify golfers that consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation, which is really all that’s required at Sea Island. While the Seaside course (where three of the rounds will be played) has massively wide fairways, there is still danger for golfers who are wild off the tee as most holes have water and marshland areas in play. These danger areas have caused Seaside to have the highest rate of penalty shots from off the tee since 2015. Also, most of the 13 “water danger” holes have hazards that affect golfers off the tee instead of on approach. The best players for this metric at the RSM are Hayden Buckley, Aaron Rai, Joel Dahmen, Troy Merritt, David Lipsky, Justin Suh, Will Gordon, Keith Mitchell, Tyler Duncan and Matthew NeSmith.

The second metric that makes up the “Core 4” this week is my Approach model which emphasizes wedge-to-middle-iron play from 100-175 yards. Since this week ultimately does boil down to a putting contest thanks to wide fairways and large greens, having the skill to attack flags on the correct side of these sloped greens will be key. Last year, each of the top-eight players on the leaderboard gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach. The best “approach” players in the field using my 100-175 yard proximity model are Tom Hoge, Russell Knox, Davis Riley, Ben Griffin, Brian Harman, Matthew NeSmith, Lee Hodges, Sam Ryder, Brendon Todd and Robby Shelton.

The third important part of the “Core 4” is the Strokes Gained Putting model. Simply put, making putts on these grainy TifEagle Bermuda greens will be huge this week. Last year, 38% of all strokes gained were with the flat stick in what essentially becomes a putting contest year after year. Because neither course has many difficulties in the tee-to-green areas, Sea Island does not allow players to separate from the field based on their ball-striking skills. With a focus on past Bermuda putting performance, the best putters in this field are Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Taylor, Taylor Montgomery, Chesson Hadley, Beau Hossler, Kevin Kisner, Harris English, Andrew Putnam and Adam Long.

Finally, with an average winning score of 18-under par over the past 12 years of this event. The data shows that both the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories. Stats like Birdie or Better %, Scoring Chances Gained (inside 15 feet) and par-5 scoring were combined into one “Scoring” metric. The best players in this model include Tom Hoge, Trey Mullinax, Davis Thompson, Joel Dahmen, Alex Smalley, Justin Lower, Ben Griffin, Davis Riley, Taylor Moore and Hayden Buckley.

Lineup Strategy

Tony Finau’s withdrawal has a huge trickle-down effect on the rest of the field. I was fading him anyways but any edge in doing that is obviously now gone. And thus, the RSM Classic turns into a wide-open event that could definitely be won by someone in the lower tier who just happens to catch fire with the putter.

Finau being out leaves only two players above 10K in Seamus Power and Brian Harman. You can play any three upper-tier players that you want and still fit three guys in the 6-7K range that could easily make the cut. I think you can get really creative now. I also think you want to grab as much win equity as possible in every lineup.

My strategy is to have at least 2-3 players with win equity in each lineup and then take stands on some of the lower-priced players. For example, if you think a guy like Dean Burmester (who is ranked 59th in the world yet is ranked 140th in this field!) can rebound from last week and even just finish in the top 40, that $6,300 salary opens up so much.

There are a couple of the “Sea Island Mafia” guys that I will be heavily overweight on including Keith Mitchell and Harris English. I especially love English this week as I believe his game is trending upward, he is a perfect fit for this course, and he plays it more often than perhaps anyone else.

One last important item if you are playing Showdown this week. On Thursday and Friday, all players will tee off between 9-11 AM. As you can see below in the weather forecast for Thursday, winds are fairly strong through 11 AM. Also, the Plantation course is slightly easier than Seaside and more tree-lined and less exposed to the wind. Rostering players who are teeing off on the Plantation course as close to 11 AM as possible looks to be the strategy with the largest edge.

St. Simons Island, Georgia – Weather Forecast (November 17th-November 20th)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

SG: Approach (100-175 yds)
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Good Drive %
Scoring Chances Gained
Fairways Gained
Birdie or Better %
Par 4 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Comp Courses
SG: Short Courses

The RSM Classic DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.