2022 RSM Classic Betting Picks Preview

The PGA Tour heads to the eastern seaboard bringing the tournament calendar to a close at the idyllic Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia. With changes coming to the PGA Tour schedule next year, the RSM Classic will mark the last event of the fall swing season in its current format.

The RSM Classic has produced numerous longshot champions over the years including the likes of Robert Streb (twice), Tyler Duncan, and Austin Cook among others. Each winner here has a similar recipe for success – hit fairways, attack pins on approach, and get hot on the greens.

As is the case with most coastal courses, the strength of the wind is the X-factor. Yet even with numerous “windy” rounds, over the 12 events played here, the average winning score has been 18-under par. The data shows that both the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories.

With daylight at a premium in mid-November, this event is still able to pack a full field of 156 thanks to the use of the two courses. Golfers will play both the Sea Island and Plantation courses one time before the 36-hole cut takes place with the top 65 and ties advancing on to play the weekend solely on the Seaside course.

In what is typically a weak-field event here on St. Simons Island, this year’s tournament feels like it has even less star power than usual. Coming off a win at last week’s Houston Open, Tony Finau has established himself as an elite player on the professional stage. With three victories in the past four months, Finau has moved up to the 12th-best ranking in the world. Five other golfers in the top-40 of the OWGR will join Finau in Georgia including Brian Harman, Sepp Straka, Tom Hoge, Kevin Kisner, and FedExCup leader Seamus Power.

The RSM Classic has provided some memorable finishes as four of the last six editions have gone to a playoff. One of the ironies of this event is that first-time Tour winners have had more success at Sea Island than the locals who call this course their home. Numerous members of the “Sea Island Mafia” as they are called will tee it up again this week hoping for better results including J.T. Poston, Brian Harman, Harris English, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, Greyson Sigg, and Michael Thompson.

Keys To Success at Sea Island GC

As is the case for each tournament, my weekly model includes what I call the “Core 4”. Based on the data from past events at these courses, these are the four most important metrics for having success. At Sea Island, in general, fairway finders who can hit a high percentage of greens in regulation and make a ton of putts perform very well here.

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For the RSM Classic this week, the first statistic in the “Core 4” is a combination of Fairways Gained and Good Drive %. Good Drive percentage helps identify golfers that consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation, which is really all that’s required at Sea Island. While the Seaside course (where three of the rounds will be played) does have massively wide fairways, there is still danger for golfers who are wild off the tee as a majority of holes do have water and marshland areas in play. These danger areas have caused Seaside to have the highest rate of penalty shots from off the tee since 2015. Also, most of the 13 “water danger” holes have hazards that affect golfers off the tee instead of on approach. The best players for this metric at the RSM are Hayden Buckley, Aaron Rai, Joel Dahmen, Troy Merritt, David Lipsky, Justin Suh, Will Gordon, Keith Mitchell, Tyler Duncan and Matthew NeSmith.

The second metric that makes up the “Core 4” this week is my Approach model which emphasizes wedge-to-middle-iron play from 100-175 yards. Since this week ultimately does boil down to a putting contest thanks to wide fairways and large greens, having the skill to attack flags on the correct side of these sloped greens will be key. Last year, each of the top-eight players on the leaderboard gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach. The best “approach” players in the field using my 100-175 yard proximity model are Tom Hoge, Russell Knox, Davis Riley, Ben Griffin, Brian Harman, Matthew NeSmith, Lee Hodges, Sam Ryder, Brendon Todd and Robby Shelton.

The third important part of the “Core 4” is the Strokes Gained Putting model. To state it simply, making putts on these grainy TifEagle Bermuda greens will be huge this week. Last year, 38% of all strokes gained were with the flat stick in what essentially becomes a putting contest year after year. Because neither course has many difficulties in the tee-to-green areas, Sea Island does not allow players to separate from the field based on their ball-striking skills. With a focus on past Bermuda putting performance, the best putters in this field are Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Taylor, Taylor Montgomery, Chesson Hadley, Beau Hossler, Kevin Kisner, Harris English, Andrew Putnam and Adam Long.

Finally, with an average winning score of 18-under par over the past 12 years of this event. The data shows that both the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories. Stats like Birdie or Better %, Scoring Chances Gained (inside 15 feet) and par-5 scoring were combined into one “Scoring” metric. The best players in this model include Tom Hoge, Trey Mullinax, Davis Thompson, Joel Dahmen, Alex Smalley, Justin Lower, Ben Griffin, Davis Riley, Taylor Moore and Hayden Buckley.

St. Simons Island, Georgia – Weather Forecast (November 17th-November 20th)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

  • SG: Approach (100-175 yds)
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Good Drive %
  • Scoring Chances Gained
  • Fairways Gained
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • SG: Comp Courses
  • SG: Short Courses

The RSM Classic Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Bets were made on Monday morning before Tony Finau withdrew and posted to the Betsperts Golf Discord then. Lines have dramatically changed since that time. 4.86 total units wagered. Each to win 24 units.

Taylor Montgomery +3000 (0.80u) – Caesars
Tom Hoge +3300 (0.72u) – BetRivers
Denny McCarthy +4000 (0.60u) – MGM
Matthew NeSmith +5000 (0.48u) – MGM
Alex Smalley +6000 (0.40u) – BetRivers
Harris English +6500 (0.37u) – DraftKings
Scott Stallings +7000 (0.34u) – BetRivers
Taylor Moore +7000 (0.34u) – BetRivers
J.T. Poston +10000 (0.24u) – BetRivers
Justin Lower +12500 (0.19u) – Caesars
Adam Long +15000 (0.16u) – Caesars
Patton Kizzire +18000 (0.13u) – FanDuel
Tyler Duncan +25000 (0.09u) – DraftKings

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20

Top 30 – all BetRivers

  • Joel Dahmen +100 (1.2u)
  • Matthew NeSmith +138 (1u)
  • Mackenzie Hughes +138 (1u)
  • Brendon Todd +150 (1u)
  • Davis Riley +150 (1u)
  • Andrew Putnam +150 (1u)

Top 40 – all FanDuel

  • Aaron Rai +105 (1.2u)
  • Harris English +110 (1.2u)
  • Alex Smalley +125 (1.1u)
  • Taylor Moore +140 (1u)
  • Greyson Sigg +140 (1u)

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Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images