The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week just outside Memphis, Tennessee, at TPC Southwind. The Tour has played here annually since 1989 but never in the lead-off spot for the playoffs. The top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings are looking to survive this week, with the top 70 in the standings advancing to next week’s BMW Championship. Then the top 30 advance to the Tour Championship at Atlanta’s East Lake Golf Club, where a $15 million prize awaits the winner. I don’t think anyone loves the format for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, especially once we get to East Lake, but it’s better than nothing.
The event’s winner has had a finishing score in the teens the past few years, but TPC Southwind can play harder than those results indicate. The 7,243-yard par-70 track features zoysia grass fairways, Bermudagrass rough, and Championship Bermudagrass greens, all native to Southeastern United States golf. As a result, scoring chances are few and far between if you don’t find the fairway off the tee. In addition, the greens-in-regulation rate and average proximity to the hole are significantly lower here than at a Tour-average track. As a result, golfers hitting their approach from the fairway will have a significant advantage this week. As will those who can work magic on and around the greens since missed greens are inevitable.
For more course tidbits, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit:
With just two par 5s, scoring chances will be limited. Par 4 scoring will be critical as the threat of bogeys will be brought much more into play than has been seen over the past couple of weeks. Overall, there are more holes with a 20% bogey rate than a 20% birdie rate. While the rough isn’t ultra-penalizing, the unpredictability of the Bermuda grass results in numerous bogeys. It becomes a challenging track to play if you’re missing fairways and greens or splashing it into the water. The greens present another challenge as the fourth smallest on Tour and are heavily guarded by water or multiple greenside bunkers.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s St. Jude Targets
Will Zalatoris
This week’s betting card is akin to your favorite band from 15 years ago. You go to see them live for the first time in ages, you haven’t been really enjoying a lot of their new stuff, but you get there, and they just start playing the hits. Nothing but bangers and all the jams that you love.
If you’ve read this article or watched our betting show this season, you’re not surprised to see Will Zalatoris on the card this week. In fact, he was a consensus pick on this week’s show, so the confirmation bias is strong. Eighth here last year in his debut, Zalatoris’s game is an ideal fit for what it takes to win at TPC Southwind. Elite ball-striking and Par-4 scoring are what Willy does best, and I’m looking for him to showcase those skills this weekend. Also, while most of the top-tier golfers have been MIA since St. Andrews, Zalatoris has been keeping his game sharp by playing in Detroit (T20) and at last week’s Wyndham (T21). THIS. IS. THE. WEEK.
Sam Burns
He hasn’t been particularly sharp of late, but I’ll continue to back Sam Burns, especially on Bermuda, any time his price is approaching 40/1. One of only three 3-time winners on Tour this season, Sam Burns shot a 64 here in last year’s fourth round on the back of 3.41 strokes gained on approach (SG: APP). Unfortunately, he came up short in the end, losing to Abraham Ancer in a playoff, but he’s continued to build off of that success in 2022. Burns has finished in the top 20 in 12 of his 22 starts (55%). Seven of those finishes were inside the top 5 (32%). That’s a hell of a year. In addition, Burns is one of the Tour’s best Par-4 scorers, which I’m weighing heavily this week in Memphis.
- Win: 38/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +110 BetMGM
Max Homa
I’ve gone back to Max Homa several times since he cashed for me at Wells Fargo, and it’s hard for me to avoid a guy that’s shown well over the past few years on tough tracks against loaded fields when he’s north of 60/1. Homa’s record at TPC Southwind is nothing special, but his Quail Hollow win back in 2019 was on Bermuda, so he’s not uncomfortable on this surface. Arguably the Tour’s most improved player this season, Homa’s excellent on long Par-4’s, and his irons have been solid all season from the key proximity ranges, where over 65% of approach shots come from the 150-200 range at this course. So even in a field as strong as this, Homa is too hard to pass up at this price.
Aaron Wise
You knew this was the last song on the setlist, let’s be honest. It’d almost be better for me at this point if he wasn’t playing well so I could back away and reset my expectations, but that’s not the case. The ball-striking continues to be excellent, though his irons were uncharacteristically shaky last week at the Wyndham, and his putting continues to improve from the early-season woes. Similar boxes are checked here with Par-4 scoring, approach from the key proximity ranges, and his lone career win came on Bermudagrass greens. Opening at 80 is just disrespectful.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Tony Finau and Scott Stallings – T40 (+201)
Both Finau and Stallings have form and course fit on their side this week.
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. I want to continue to be long on these two young up-and-coming talents.
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Featured Image – Christian Petersen/Getty Images