The top 125 golfers in the FedExCup standings will travel to Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship which is the opening playoff event of the PGA Tour’s season-long points competition. Nestled in the rolling countryside just southeast of Memphis sits TPC Southwind, which is hosting a playoff event for the first time. It is a course that is infamous for its “water balls” and one that historically rewards the best ball-strikers in the world. In the past six events played at this course, winners have included some of the best ball-strikers in the world, including Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, and Daniel Berger (twice).
Only the top 70 in the FedExCup standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship. This is also the last tournament this season with a cut. Even with a smaller field, the top 65 and ties will advance to the weekend. Since this course has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989, we have plenty of course history and data to rely on this week. With $15 million in prize money on the line, the top players are motivated not to treat this week as a warm-up for the following two rounds.
Of course, an entire host of prominent names will not be in Memphis this week. Players like Koepka, Johnson, Ancer, and Bryson DeChambeau are suspended from playing in PGA events after joining the rival LIV Golf tour. Three players, Talor Gooch, Hudson Swafford, and Matt Jones, are seeking a temporary restraining order to allow them to play this week. With a court date set for Tuesday, if they are allowed to play after current Tour players have come out strongly against the notion, there could be some major drama throughout the week.
Keys to Success
The stretch run for the conclusion of the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season is upon us. This first round of the playoffs is the last cut event of the season. With all the drama of the three LIV players attempting to get into this tournament, and today, being rejected, the fact remains that a good deal of depth for this first playoff round is missing. The bottom half of this field is definitely more watered down. That is definitely not good for the PGA Tour’s product, and I believe it makes it more difficult to find value on the betting board. That being said, I love this course. There are so many challenging aspects to it, but not in a “major course” type of way. There is a lot of water. Good shots will be rewarded. Double bogeys will happen. It is pretty much a ball-striking paradise.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith the potential trouble off the tee and on approach shots, combined with tiny greens, we definitely want to bet on elite ball-strikers this week. Strokes gained off the tee and on approach were weighted much more heavily this week in the model compared to other weeks (around 35% combined). Another interesting angle related to this is that each of the past six winners was gaining an average of 1.28 strokes ball-striking coming into TPC Southwind. Whoever you choose to play, focus on golfers who enter this week in excellent ball-striking form. Most of the players that I am targeting in both outrights or finishing bets are elite in one or both of those areas.
With the greens at TPC Southwind being some of the easiest on Tour, I am minimizing putting performance and focusing more on players who can maximize tee-to-green (T2G) play. Each of the past six winners has finished in the top-six overall in T2G. With so many greens being missed, scrambling and around the green play should not be ignored.
Another important metric this week is Par 4 scoring. On a par-70 course with 12 par-4s and only two par-5s, par-4 scoring is heavily weighted. I have that incorporated into both the “Hole Breakdown” model and the “Scoring” model for this week. Each of the last six winners here in Memphis was inside the top-15 in par-4 scoring. With only two Par 5s on the course, scoring will be more difficult, making stats like Birdie or Better% (BoB) very significant.
Memphis, TN Weather Forecast (August 11th-August 14th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (125-200 yds)
- Total Driving
- Fairways Gained
- Par 4 Scoring
- SG: T2G
- Good Drive %
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogeys Avoided
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
The FedEx St. Jude Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Jon Rahm +2200
With all of his alleged recent struggles, which include only two top-10s in the past six months, Rahm still leads the Tour in gaining strokes Off the Tee. He also leads in Total Driving, which combines distance and accuracy. His odds to win are as low as they have been for a long time. Historically, he tends to play very well after returning from breaks of three or more weeks. I will also buy into the motivation angle that he has been working his tail off to get back to the playing level he was at last year.
(0.91u) BetRivers
Will Zalatoris +3000 (currently +2800)
Willy Z week is upon us! Having come so close to winning multiple times in these strong field events, everything is lining up for this to finally be the week for Zalatoris. To start with, this is a perfect course for him because it demands stellar ball-striking, and he is one of the best in the world. Being able to steer clear of the water and the rough and attack these small greens will allow him to separate from the field. Secondly, his recent caddie switch should reinvigorate him, and according to reports, was long overdue. He also comes into this week in good playing form, having competed in the past two events where he gained a combined 10.6 strokes ball-striking. Finally, he has proven time and time again that he is a big-game hunter in strong fields. In his last seven “strong-field” events, he has five top-10s and has gained a total of 69.3 strokes on the field.
(0.66u) BetRivers
Sam Burns +3500 (currently +3300)
“Bermuda” Burns already has three career wins on Bermuda grass courses, and TPC Southwind is another solid fit. While he has been struggling in his last few events, a couple of those came in a completely different environment on links courses in Scotland. Also, if you look back before last year’s St. Jude, Burns had a very similar profile to this year, having finished poorly in his last event before finishing 2nd here in Memphis. He is very capable of spiking and having a huge week with his irons, having gained at least four strokes on approach in four of his last five measured events.
Cameron Young +3300 (currently +3000)
Young’s spectacular rookie season has seen him finish runner-up or in third place in a tournament seven times! And that includes two majors. The amazing thing is that they have come on a wide array of courses. From a birdie-fest at the Rocket Mortgage to the links of Scotland to a tight tree-lined course at the RBC Heritage, Young has proven he can contend at any venue and without any benefit of prior course history. While his approach game can be streaky at times, his total driving ability off the tee and touch around the greens tend to make up for any deficiency with his irons. Bermuda grass has been his putting surface thus far as he looks for his first PGA victory here in Memphis.
(0.60u) BetRivers
Sungjae Im +4500 (currently +3500)
If not for the runaway train named Joohyung Kim, Im would have been raising his second career trophy on Sunday. Instead, he had to settle for his second consecutive runner-up finish. He continues to be a model of consistency with eight top-10s in his last 23 events. His ball-striking has been impeccable as he has gained over 17 strokes on the field in his last two events. Bermuda grass is his favorite turf on which to play. He also ranks seventh in this field in tee to green and checks the boxes in almost every category in the model.
(0.44u) BetRivers
Other Outright Selections
- Collin Morikawa +3500 (currently +3300) (0.57u) – DraftKings
- Joaquin Niemann +7000 (currently +6600) (0.28u) – BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy +140 (1u) FanDuel
Top 20
- Justin Thomas +100 (1.5u) BetRivers
- Matt Fitzpatrick +110 (1.3u) FanDuel
- Jon Rahm +120 (1.3u) BetRivers
- Will Zalatoris +125 (1.2u) BetRivers
- Sungjae Im +150 (1u) DraftKings
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Sam Burns +105 (1.2u)
- Billy Horschel +115 (1u)
- Corey Conners +125 (1u)
- Aaron Wise +145 (1u)
Top 40
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Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images