Keys to Success
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith Memorial Park averaging 0.92 strokes over par and playing as the 4th toughest non-major course on Tour, one of the first areas I am analyzing this week is past player performance on other difficult scoring courses. The last two winners at this event, Jason Kokrak and Carlos Ortiz, had a tendency to play well above their baseline on tougher courses. To put it simply, Memorial Park is a beast of a course. Not only does it have one fewer par-5 scoring hole than most layouts, but the three par-5s it has rank as the toughest on Tour.
And then, when you consider its length, the unpredictable Bermuda rough, the firm and fast November conditions, the undulating green complexes surrounded by short grass, and the swirling Texas winds, it’s no surprise that Memorial Park plays so difficult. My model for this event (which is below) heavily weighs this factor with each of the four upper-tier players on DraftKings, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau and Sam Burns finishing in the top-five of that ranking.
I am playing all four of those golfers this week and will be on Scheffler at around 50% to get enough leverage over his popularity which should be somewhere around 25%-35%. There are enough value plays in the $7K range that I will be planting flags on who I can mix and match with these upper-tier players.
The second major area that I emphasized in the model this week that will be key to success is short-game performance around the greens. Last year, 27% of strokes gained at Memorial Park came from around the greens. This is the highest rate on Tour and speaks to the importance of having a quality short game in order to contend here. Last year each of the top-five finishers gained over 1.8 strokes around the greens.
Most of the greens fall off around the edges to short-grass runoff areas which can make life quite difficult for even the best players when missing the putting surface. Not only that, but the greens are also sloped and very fast. Instead of the deeper rough that most courses have, both architect Tom Doak and player consultant Brooks Koepka wanted tight, sloping uphill lies that would test players’ ability to demonstrate touch with their chipping. And with so many players missing greens, a poor short game will be very difficult to hide.
As Scottie Scheffler said about the difficulty in saving par, “Around the greens out here is very, very difficult to get up and down, and you can get into some spots where you start playing ping pong across these greens, it’s brutal.”
Some deeper values that rank highly in SG: Around the Green and scrambling include Andrew Putnam, Mackenzie Hughes, Harris English, and Ben Griffin. The complete ranking is in the model below.
Houston, Texas – Weather Forecast (November 10th-November 13th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: ARG
- Scrambling
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- SG: Difficult Scoring Courses
- Proximity 175+ yds
- Bogeys Avoided
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 4 Scoring
The WWT Championship at Mayakoba DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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