2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open Betting Picks Preview

With only two regular events left on the 2022 calendar, the PGA Tour heads north from Mexico to Memorial Park Golf Course and the Houston Open. One of the country’s best public, municipal courses, Memorial Park is a long par 70 that measures 7,412 yards and can trace its origins back to 1912.

It is a wall-to-wall bermudagrass track with five par 3s and three par 5s. Players can expect firm and fast conditions with unique green complexes that feature plenty of undulations and short-grass runoffs with false fronts. Playing almost an entire stroke over par after its first two editions here, Memorial Park emphasizes the importance of a well-rounded game. As Marc Leishman quipped last year, “I think what this whole golf course does is reward good shots and punish bad shots.”

Coming off a 3rd place finish and Sunday round of 62 at Mayakoba, Scottie Scheffler headlines the field this week. Now ranked 2nd in the world behind Rory McIlroy, Scheffler can regain the world No. 1 position with a win in Houston where he finished 2nd last year. Other top-ranked players in the field include Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, and last week’s winner in Mayakoba, Russell Henley.

Keys To Success at Memorial Park GC

With Memorial Park averaging 0.92 strokes over par and playing as the 4th toughest non-major course on Tour, one of the first areas I am analyzing this week is past player performance on other difficult scoring courses. The last two winners at this event, Jason Kokrak and Carlos Ortiz, had a tendency to play well above their baseline on tougher courses. To put it simply, Memorial Park is a beast of a course. Not only does it have one fewer par-5 scoring hole than most layouts, but the three par-5s it has rank as the toughest on Tour.

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And then, when you consider its length, the unpredictable Bermuda rough, the firm and fast November conditions, the undulating green complexes surrounded by short grass, and the swirling Texas winds, it’s no surprise that Memorial Park plays so difficult. My model for this event (which is below) heavily weighs this factor with four of the top betting favorites, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau and Sam Burns each finishing in the top-five of that ranking.

The second major area that I emphasized in the model this week that will be key to success is short-game performance around the greens. Last year, 27% of strokes gained at Memorial Park came from around the greens. This is the highest rate on Tour and speaks to the importance of having a quality short game in order to contend here. Last year each of the top-five finishers gained over 1.8 strokes around the greens.

Most of the greens fall off around the edges to short-grass runoff areas which can make life quite difficult for even the best players when missing the putting surface. Not only that, but the greens are also sloped and very fast. Instead of the deeper rough that most courses have, both architect Tom Doak and player consultant Brooks Koepka wanted tight, sloping uphill lies that would test players’ ability to demonstrate touch with their chipping. And with so many players missing greens, a poor short game will be very difficult to hide.

As Scottie Scheffler said about the difficulty in saving par, “Around the greens out here is very, very difficult to get up and down, and you can get into some spots where you start playing ping pong across these greens, it’s brutal.”

Some deeper values that rank highly in SG: Around the Green and scrambling include Andrew Putnam, Mackenzie Hughes, Harris English, and Ben Griffin. The complete ranking is in the model below.

Houston, Texas – Weather Forecast (November 10th-November 13th)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

  • SG: ARG
  • Scrambling
  • SG: APP
  • Total Driving
  • SG: Difficult Scoring Courses
  • Proximity 175+ yds
  • Bogeys Avoided
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Par 4 Scoring

The Houston Open Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Tony Finau +2200

Finau leads the overall model this week finishing 2nd in the SG: ARG ranking and 1st in Scoring, in the Core 4, and on correlated courses. He is a top-tier ball-striker and has gained with the putter in his last six measured events. His strong play around the greens and ability to scramble for par on some of these difficult holes will allow him to separate from the field. Over the past 36 rounds, he is the best player by far teeing it up this week.

(1.09u) MGM

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Finishing 3rd overall in my model this week, Matsuyama brings some value to the table at these odds. While his recent form has been lacking, a weaker field combined with a tougher course where SG: ARG play is paramount should allow him to shine this week. He is the best player in the field on difficult scoring courses and ranks 7th in SG: ARG. He finished 2nd here two years ago and tends to surprise when he is counted out.

(0.96u) BetRivers

Taylor Pendrith +6000

Having only played once since the Presidents Cup and with a newborn baby in the fold, Pendrith is an interesting play this week, especially at these odds. The bottom line is that he fits Memorial Park very well. On a par 70 that measures over 7,400 yards, this is a brute of a course. His distance off the tee and long-iron accuracy will definitely play to his advantage. At these odds, his ceiling and course fit outweigh any negatives.

(0.40u) DraftKings

Keith Mitchell +7000 (currently +6600)

Similar to Pendrith, this is another high-upside play on a guy who fits the course very well even though his recent play has been poor. Mitchell’s length and accuracy off the tee should benefit him here. He also plays well above his baseline on Bermuda grass courses. He has five top-10 finishes over the past year and has enough of a streaky putter to hang around and make a splash on Sunday.

(0.26u) BetRivers

Dean Burmester +9500 (currently +6500)

Speaking of course fits, Burmester ranks in the top-10 in this field in Total Driving and also has the touch and putting ability to scramble for par on these challenging green complexes. He finished 4th at an “all-Bermuda” course at the Sanderson Farms and recently finished 10th at the Scottish Open which is played on another Tom Doak layout, The Renaissance Club, which is a comparable course to Memorial Park. He also finished 11th at The Open this year on a tough course and in windy conditions that could come into play this week.

(0.25u) FanDuel

Other Outright Selections

Finishing Position Picks

Top 10

Top 20

Top 40

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Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images