2022 BMW Championship Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

Best Live Outright Adds

With names like Cantlay, Schauffele, Scheffler, and Morikawa at the top of the BMW leaderboard, Sunday is shaping to be a heavyweights battle. On a day where pin placements appeared to be the toughest yet, Saturday’s 3rd round saw the best scoring day thus far at an average of 1.14 strokes under par.

Regarding the best outright additions, I am holding onto my pre-tournament Scottie Scheffler ticket (+2200) for dear life. Those two bogeys down the stretch might cost him. The defending FedExCup champion, Patrick Cantlay was unstoppable today and is a worthy favorite at +225 (DraftKings). He shot six-under today notwithstanding the 1.5 strokes lost with his usually reliable putter. At only one shot back, Xander Schauffele has some value at +500 (BetRivers) and is one of the best Sunday performers in the world. Cantlay and Schauffele are best friends and will be paired together once again tomorrow. The best value play would have to be Collin Morikawa (+1400 DraftKings) who currently trails by three shots but was on fire with his putter and his irons on Saturday. Morikawa has gained an average of 2.40 strokes on the field in the past year on Sundays.

With scoring being a challenge thus far, combined with the class of the names at the very top of the leaderboard, it will be difficult for players more than three shots back to close the gap. Of course, Rory McIlroy (+3500 DraftKings) is sitting there five shots behind. But it will take a major miracle for him to overtake the top of the board.

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Weather Forecast – Wilmington, DE

#BMWChampionship SG: Sunday per round (past year) and in strong field events (past 2 yrs)

Cantlay 1.03/1.71
Schauffele 1.94/2.26
Stallings 0.89/-3.40
Scott 0.73/-0.24
Scheffler 1.01/0.76
Morikawa 2.40/2.00
Wise 0.49/1.13
Niemann 0.14/0.42
Conners 1.66/0.95
McIlroy 2.70/1.57
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) August 21, 2022

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data. Motivation could be a real factor tomorrow. There are numerous players who are either safely inside the top-30 for East Lake next week or mathematically eliminated from getting there. Check the current FedExCup rankings here to gain a better idea of who stands where.