What an incredible weekend of golf at Southwind. It was only fitting that Will Zalatoris would finally get over the hump with his first win on Tour, in dramatic fashion, holding off a suddenly in-form Sepp Straka. Sunday was a tough afternoon for the ‘golf is boring’ crowd.
We’re on to Wilmington Country Club for the first time ever, hosting 68 of the world’s best golfers for the BMW Championship. We’re flying in the dark here, with a rare, never-before-seen course mixed in the BMW rota this season. Although WCC has never hosted a professional event, it has hosted six USGA events in the past, including the 2013 Palmer Cup between the United States and Europe.
Luckily for you, Ron did a lot of the work, so you don’t have to. Check out his detailed course preview here, but here’s an important tidbit:
Wilmington Country Club is a tree-lined open parkland layout that averages a massively long 106.1 yards per par. It ranks as the 8th longest course played on Tour over the past few years. From an agronomy standpoint, fairways and greens are bentgrass, while the rough is a combination of fescue in the intermediate area and thick, lush, 4-inch bluegrass in the main area.
There is an interesting mix of both long and short holes. Eight par-4s are under 450 yards. Much of the course’s length comes on five holes. Two of the three par-5s are over 630 yards. Reaching the green in two shots is not a realistic option for most players on either of them. Three of the par-4s are very long at 490-plus yards. And then three of the four par-3s are over 230 yards, including some challenging approaches over water.
The truth is, we don’t know how the course will play this week, but I believe the Tour doesn’t want another birdie fest. So when I put on my tinfoil hat here, I think tough conditions and pin placements on Thursday and Friday help the cream rise to the top, creating a fun leaderboard heading into the weekend, where generous pin placements on these ginormous greens create the best product for the television audience.
Cappers can either pick an archetype and fill their betting card, selecting golfers with overlapping skills, or spread themselves out, covering multiple skill sets since the range of outcomes could be vast. I’m of the first ilk. I want multiple guys in contention on Sunday, and if I’m correct in how I think a course will play that week, I want to increase my chances of being rewarded for it.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
I’m not sure how I want to approach this week yet. I might take a few smaller shots at the outright market in place of laying massive juice in the finishing position market. Since it’ll be a lighter week in terms of overall investment, swinging for the fences a few more times may be the best approach. After a discussion on this week’s betting show, I think I’ll fire a few live bullets once the numbers drift after Round 1.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
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Jon Rahm
Fair or unfair, I think most would classify this as a disappointing year for Jon Rahm. He came into the year with such high expectations, having dominated for stretches during the 2021 season despite bagging only one title, albeit the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. He finished in the top 20 in 18 of his 24 starts (75%), including eight top-5 finishes. This season, Rahm’s finished inside the top 20 in ‘just’ 59% of his starts, and his lone win was against a third-tier field in Mexico.
I’m buying into what we saw last week, though. Rham was terrific, charging on the weekend with 67 and 66 to finish tied for 5th. He led the field in greens-in-regulation at 81.9% and finished 5th in strokes gained tee-to-green (SG: T2G), thanks in large part to his dominance off the tee, which I’m giving an edge to this week at Wilmington.
Total Driving is a bit of a noisy stat, but I think when someone is a statistical outlier somewhere, it’s worth noting. Total Driving is derived from simply adding a player’s driving distance ranking to their driving accuracy ranking. Flawed, no doubt, but Jon Rham laps the field in this metric. Rahm ranks 3rd in distance and 51st in accuracy, making his Total Driving score 54. The next closest golfer, Keith Mitchell, comes in at 92. That 38-point difference is the same as Mitchell and 23rd-ranked golfer Chris Kirk. Rahm was going off at 5/1 at this event last year, and I saw enough last week to think that guy is on his way back.
- Win: 15/1 FanDuel
Sam Burns
A cold putter on Sunday kept Sam Burns out of the final mix despite a strong first three days at last week’s St. Jude. However, I’m willing to bet Burns’s -2.5 SG: P performance was an anomaly considering his career success on Bermuda greens. After another top-20 finish last week, Burns has finished in the top 20 in 13 of his 23 starts (57%). Burns has the all-around game to win at any course against any field, and I’ll continue to ring the bell here every week.
- Win: 30/1 DraftKings
Cam Young
Last week’s Will Zalatoris is this week’s Cameron Young. A trendy pick as soon as the betting odds dropped this week, Young opened north of 30 in most books and has been beat down to the 22-25 range by Tuesday morning. That’s ok. Don’t stay off of his line just because you missed the best of the number. Over the past 36 rounds, Young has ranked second in this field in SG: T2G, SG: OTT, and Driving Distance, all key metrics that should be a significant piece of your handicapping pie this week. The added bonus of following his Wake Forest teammate Will Zalatoris to the winner’s circle after so many close calls is a narrative that I can latch on to as well.
- Win: 33/1 BetMGM
Max Homa
Play the hits! I’ve gone back to Max Homa several times since he cashed for me at Wells Fargo, and it’s hard for me to avoid a guy that’s shown well over the past few years on tough tracks against loaded fields when he’s at this number. With the oversized greens in play this week, lag putting will be crucial. Our guy Ron put together his putting model for the week, looking at 3-putt avoidance and overall SG: P on other courses with greens 7,000 sq. ft and over since 2019. Tops in the model? Max Homa.
- Win: 50/1
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Tom Kim and Keith Mitchell (T30) +163
The finishing position bets are trickier this week since we have a 68-man field in a no-cut event, so the juice is outrageous. However, the parlays make it a bit more tolerable if that’s your thing.
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T30s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. I want to continue to be long on these two young up-and-coming talents.
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