The PGA Tour’s California swing continues this week on the Monterrey Peninsula, headlined by the breathtaking Pebble Beach Golf Links for the Tour’s second “Signature Event” of the season. The changes to the 2024 event are all positive, in my opinion, and one of the world’s most iconic golf venues will be on display, with the Tour’s top players competing for the elevated purse. The field is maxed at 80 participants, and the 54-hole cut has been removed. Thirty-six holes will be played between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill on Thursday and Friday, removing the Monterey Peninsula course altogether. The final two rounds will be played without the amateurs and solely at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about the unique setup this week:
Due to the numerous angles faced off the tee, players are forced to use “less-than-driver” on many holes. Because of this, along with its lack of length, Pebble Beach has the shortest average driving distance on Tour, averaging only 272 yards, well below the Tour average. Longer hitters have a minimal advantage here.
Because fairways are so wide and the rough is cut short, accuracy off the tee means little as well. Add in the fact that players are clubbing down, and the result is driving accuracy above 72%. Fairway bunkers litter the course along with the impending ocean beyond the cliffs, but these dangerous areas are mostly avoided thanks to all of the forced layups.
With Pebble Beach being a clear “second shot” course, the only relevant stat (in my opinion) to analyze OTT is Good Drive %, which measures how often a player lands their second shot on the green, no matter where their tee shot landed.
Overall, Pebble Beach has the smallest greens on Tour at an average of only 3,500 square feet compared to the average of 6,200. With a GIR rate below the Tour average at 63%, golfers who can simply get themselves on the green and as close to the pin as possible should create the most birdie opportunities on the tricky Poa surfaces. On average, over 46% of approach shots are under 150 yards. Expect wedges galore this week. Jordan Spieth summed it up best by calling it “a dart-throwing contest to see who can make the most putts.”
We have partnered with Vivid Picks to bring you an easy way to claim a FREE, no-strings-attached 2024 season at Betsperts Golf, plus a 100% deposit match up to $250! Click here to learn more!
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Targets
Collin Morikawa
A poor second round on the South Course ended Collin Morikawa’s week at Torrey Pines earlier than expected. Because of that, we’re getting a slight discount on Morikawa at 25/1 when I expected to see him in the 16-20/1 range.
This is not an annual stop for Morikawa, which has always annoyed me since I believe his game is perfectly suited for what’s needed to win at Pebble Beach. Morikawa came out on top of my Rabbit Hole Model this week on the back of his elite ball-striking. He’s the best wedge player in the world, and his short game has been at its best when he’s playing on California Poa like he’ll see this week.
To Win: 25/1 Caesars
Top 10: +120 BetMGM
Russell Henley
Russell Henley is another golfer who should have Pebble Beach on their annual schedule. Perhaps the three-course rotation and Pro-Am element isn’t his cup of tea. He has made multiple starts here before, including a T15 back in 2018, but hasn’t teed it up at this event since 2019.
Henley is a significantly better player than he was then, and a case could be made that he’s in the midst of his best stretch as a professional. He finished inside the top 20 in 14 of his 25 starts last season, and he’s finished T14 or better in six of his past seven starts, including a T4 last time out at The Sony Open. He will put himself in good positions off the tee, and his wedge and around-the-green game are as good as anyone in the field.
To Win: 60/1 FanDuel
Top 30: -115 DraftKings
Adam Scott
Adam Scott’s had a lot of success in California during his career, including his last win back in February of 2020 at Riviera. He’s also in the midst of an under-the-radar run of strong finishes. Scott finished inside the top 7 in each of his past four starts and finished T7 the last time he was at Pebble in the 2019 U.S. Open.
He’s gained strokes on and around the green (SG: SG) in 75% of his past 50 rounds, tied for the second-best mark in the field, so his short game can bail him out when he’s not precise from tee to green. From an approach standpoint, though, he’s at his best with a wedge or short iron, and he should have plenty of looks from inside 130 yards this week.
To Win: 80/1 PointsBet
Top 30: +120 BetRivers
Sepp Straka
Last week’s stats from the Farmers are a bit noisy since it’s only capturing one round of data, but it was the first time since July’s Rocket Mortgage that Sepp Straka lost more than 0.05 strokes on approach in any event. The last time that happened, he went out and won the following week at the John Deere. Straka’s been playing excellent golf, and I think last week’s missed cut at Torrey Pines has pushed his outright price into the triple digits.
Prior to last week, Straka’s worst finish in his past six starts was a T22 at the DP World Tour Championship, with the other five, including a solo second at the Hero, no worse than T14. He rates out as one of the field’s best golfers on approach proximity from the fairway on courses with small greens, which correlates well with golfers who have played well here in the past and the elite golfers in this field.
To Win: 110/1 PointsBet
Top 30: +163 BetRivers
Brendon Todd
I backed Brendon Todd at this event last season at 100/1, and he gave me a nice sweat before eventually finishing T2. Obviously, this year’s field is an entirely different beast to contend with, but I like how Todd’s game fits this course, and he’s one of the most consistent golfers on Tour.
He’s gained strokes on approach in nine consecutive measured events. He ranks third in this week’s field in Good Drive% and sixth in fairway proximity from 100-125 yards out. He also has an elite short game and has putt well on these Poa greens over the years, even when the rest of his game wasn’t as sharp. He was T2 after two rounds at this year’s Sentry, which is basically the same field he’s competing against this week. Todd is also a worthwhile look at long odds in the finishing position market.
To Win: 110/1 PointsBet
Top 30: +175 BetRivers
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland – Top 20 (+120)
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets within the same finishing tier. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.