The PGA Tour heads north up the Pacific Coast to the Monterey Bay Peninsula for the second “Signature” event of the year featuring the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links. And with what is a welcome change for many – the zaniness is gone. No more Bill Murray or Jason Bateman. No more six-hour rounds. No more pathetic celebrity exhibitions. This year’s event will be unlike any in recent memory thanks to drastic changes to the tournament structure.
“We’ve gone from 156 two-person teams to 80 two-person teams, we’ll play two golf courses instead of three,” pro-am tournament director Steve John said. The 54-hole cut has been removed. On Thursday and Friday, thirty-six holes will be played between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, removing the Monterey Peninsula course altogether. The final two rounds will solely be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
The Pro-Am will also only feature select professional athletes including Tom Brady, Josh Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, and Pau Gasol among others. There will be no Hollywood actors or entertainers playing in this year’s event. The purse has also increased from $9.3 million to $20 million with the winner earning $3.6 million.
With both courses exposed to the Pacific coast, the weather can change quickly and influence the outcome of this tournament. Both courses share other similarities as well. Each is among the shortest courses on Tour at under 7,100 yards. Each is among the top five of smallest greens with Pebble Beach coming in at the most minuscule on Tour at an average of only 3,500 square feet. And finally, each course has the same agronomy with a blend of Poa annua and Ryegrass in the fairways and rough along with pure Poa greens.
While Spyglass Hill is scenic in its own right, Pebble Beach is the crown jewel of this tournament. The way the jagged coastline meets the cliffs is beyond words. It truly is the greatest meeting of land and sea in American golf. Said Jack Nicklaus, “If I had only one more round to play, I would choose to play at Pebble Beach. I loved this course from the first time I saw it. It’s possibly the best in the world.”
Having hosted this event since 1947, past winners are a historical “who’s who” of golf including Ben Hogan, Byron Nelson, Billy Casper, Ken Venturi, Johnny Miller, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods.
A second-shot course if there ever was one, players will be provided with a challenging test of patience, pitching wedges, and Poa putting. For those who played last week at Torrey Pines, the emphasis shifts from distance and long-iron play to short-iron precision on equally difficult greens. Since 2010, winning scores have averaged 18-under par with last year’s champion, Justin Rose, finishing at that number. With a cold and wet winter thus far, expect much softer greens and scoring conditions similar to last year.
The Field
In recent years, this tournament has struggled to attract an elite field. In fact, last year just 21 of the top 100 in the Official World Golf Ranking were in the field with more than half ranked outside the top 300. Between more lucrative events overseas, its place on the schedule before the popular Phoenix Open, and most golfers not wanting to play six-hour rounds with amateurs, the best players have annually skipped Pebble Beach. “For years I’d hear I’d love to come to Pebble, but it just isn’t working for me,” said John. Turning it into a “Signature” event with a huge prize pool was needed to help restore the luster of this once-beloved event.
This year, every eligible player in the top 30 of the world rankings, including the entire top 50 in the 2022-2023 FedExCup standings will be in attendance at Pebble Beach. Also playing are the top 10 finishers in the FedExCup Fall standing along with the best points earners from the last three “swing” events (Aon Swing 5).
Betting Strategy
With both in this week’s event being so short, distance off the tee will not be an advantage this week. Many players will lay up to specific target zones with long irons and 3-woods. Because fairways are so wide and the rough is cut short, accuracy off the tee also means little. Add that players are clubbing down, and the result is driving accuracy above 72%. There are fairway bunkers that litter the course along with the impending ocean beyond the cliffs, but thanks to all of the forced layups these danger areas are mostly avoided. I am strongly downgrading off-the-tee (OTT) performance in my model for this event.
This makes Good Drive %, SG: Approach and SG: Putting even more important. In fact, this week will be one of the highest weights I have placed all year on SG: Approach. With the greens smaller than average on both courses and downright tiny at Pebble Beach, golfers skilled at scrambling and saving par will also be vital to success. Pebble Beach has the most bunkers on Tour at 116. Along with Spyglass Hill, they combine for a Sand Save rate of 43.8%, which is much tougher than average. The Rabbit Hole is the only place you will find filters for “High Bunker #” and “Difficult Sand Save” courses.
This is also a week where targeting players good at putting on Poa greens is vital. Taking Jordan Spieth’s quote on Pebble Beach being “a dart-throwing contest to see who can make the most putts” a step further. Here are the top players in the field when combining SG: APP on small greens with SG: Poa putting over the last four years.
- Homa 1.53
- Hovland 1.26
- Thomas 1.06
- Henley 1.04
- McCarthy 1.04
- Scheffler 0.92
- Rose 0.84
- Schauffele 0.83
- Hoge 0.82
- Burns 0.79
- Malnati 0.78
- Taylor 0.75
- Im 0.73
- Bezuidenhout 0.73
- Schenk 0.72
- Spieth 0.71
The trends for this week show that experience in this event matters. Golfers who have played at Pebble multiple times and who have had success here usually follow that up with positive performances. Since 2010, players with 7, 7, 4, 16, 6, 6, 7, 8, 4, 3, 21, and 5 previous appearances in this event have been victorious. Also, players who have past win equity and who are veterans have had higher finishes here.
For betting purposes, two players stand out for me this week in Viktor Hovland and Max Homa. I have an outright on Homa and top 10s on both. While favorites have won this event numerous times they have come much more often from the second tier between +2200 to +2800.
With this week being a “Signature” event, however, there is a large tier of players with past win equity, who can definitely win here. Many of these players are good course fits and have odds that are way too long considering we have seen four straight longshots win this year. Also, with this also being such an odd and unpredictable event thanks to multiple courses, wet and windy conditions, and a Pro-Am format, I have built the rest of my card to reflect players with longer odds. Among that group, I have outright and finish position bets on Jason Day (+5500), Eric Cole (+7000), Hideki Matsuyama (+8000), Brian Harman (+9000), Wyndham Clark (+10000), Nick Taylor (+11000), Tom Hoge (+14000) and Rickie Fowler (+17500).
To narrow it down even further, my “Core 4” most important metrics for the week include submodels for SG: Approach, SG: Putting, and a combination of Pebble Beach course history along with my unique splits for the week – namely performance on short, coastal and western courses.
Most Important Stats For Success at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- SG: Coastal Courses
- Proximity 75-150 yds
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Good Drive %
- SG: Short Courses
- Par 5 Scoring
- BoB%
- Bogey Avoidance
Weather Forecast – Pebble Beach, CA
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Max Homa +2000 (currently +1600)
When combining SG: Approach on “small greens” and putting on Poa grass, Max Homa is far and away the best player in this field. He thrives in events on the West Coast with four of his six PGA Tour wins in his home state of California. He has three top-15 finishes here at Pebble Beach. He has become an excellent “bad weather” player with his patented “knock-down” shots in the wind. His form has continued to remain stellar with eight straight top-15 finishes since July.
(1.18u) Bovada
Jason Day +5500 (currently +5000)
There is no doubt that Day is this week’s “Course Horse”. While his current form hasn’t been great, he has not finished worse than 24th here since 2016. This also includes an amazing five top-7s. I’m banking on Day’s past success in poor weather conditions, and on other coastal and West Coast courses where he has always shined. If he can get his irons dialed in he should be in the mix come Sunday.
(0.43u) BetMGM
Tom Kim +5500
Kim appears to be completely off the radar this week and probably rightly so. He’s struggled to start the year losing 4.5 strokes at Kapalua and missing the cut at the American Express. But once again, I am banking on his win equity here on a course that plays to his strengths on approach and his streakiness with the flat stick.
(0.43u) FanDuel
Eric Cole +7000
While he doesn’t have much experience on Poa greens yet, Cole fits the profile needed to win here with his excellent approach play and elite putting skills. Coming off his first missed cut in eight months, I expect a rebound performance this week on a course that was made for him.
(0.34u) BetRivers
Other Outright Bets
- Russell Henley +6000 (0.40u) – FanDuel
- Hideki Matsuyama +8000 (0.30u) – BetRivers
- Brian Harman +9000 (0.26u) – BetRivers
- Wyndham Clark +10000 (0.25u) – BetRivers
- Nick Taylor +11000 (0.20u) – BetRivers
- Tom Hoge +14000 (0.17u) – BetRivers
- Rickie Fowler +17500 (0.17u) – FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Viktor Hovland +140 (1u) – DraftKings
- Max Homa +188 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Justin Thomas -105 (1.1u)
- Jason Day +165 (1u)
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Tom Kim -106 (1.1u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +100 (1u)
- Eric Cole +110 (1u)
- Brian Harman +120 (1u)
Top 40 – all BetRivers
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout -110 (1.1u)
- Brendon Todd -110 (1u)
- Rickie Fowler +100 (1u)
- Cameron Davis +100 (1u)
- Tom Hoge +110 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images