The PGA Tour’s west coast swing continues this week on Wednesday with the Farmers Insurance Open featuring the scenic Torrey Pines South Golf Course in La Jolla, California. Torrey Pines has hosted this event every year since 1968. Lying on land that was occupied by an anti-aircraft battery during World War II, it is one of the most scenic course layouts in America atop of coastal bluffs north of San Diego with dazzling views of the Pacific Ocean.
Thanks to the frequent morning fog delays and early sunsets, there will be two courses utilized this week. Both are owned and maintained by the City of San Diego. Golfers will play both the North and South courses one time before the cut on Friday. Only the South course will be used on the weekend. While the North course plays much easier and is more tree-lined, the South course sits much closer to the Pacific bringing possible weather effects into play. It is a massively lengthy track. In fact, it is the longest annual Tour course in the rotation, stretching over 7,700 yards.
Other than the one round on the North Course, the scoring this week will be the complete opposite of the birdie-fests we have seen for the first three events of this year. The South Course is the seventh-most difficult layout on Tour. The course provides no let-up and forces players to use every club in their bag. Unlike the previous few events, Torrey Pines offers a true barometer on the state of a golfer’s all-around game early in the 2024 season.
Even though it’s played at sea level, Torrey Pines plays even longer than the scorecard yardage due to softer fairways and the cooler January air. Every golfer will need to dust off the cobwebs from their long irons because they will be needed here. Winning scores at this event have been 15-under par or less in 10 of the past 11 years.
This is definitely a “sticky” course when looking at the type of players who have success. Par will be a good score on a majority of the holes. With it being such a long track, bombers have a definite advantage. Yet the winners’ list has also been filled with elite scramblers and Poa putting specialists. Ideally, players who are long and accurate off the tee and who also excel with their short game, particularly on Poa greens, have the best chance for success.
The Field
It’s the first tough test of the new calendar year and numerous big names have shown up to take on the challenge. Along with last year’s winner, Max Homa, other top-20 players in attendance include Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Sepp Straka, Jason Day, Sahith Theegala, and Tony Finau.
Past winners Luke List, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker and Scott Stallings return along with other notables like Sungjae Im, Ludvig Aberg, Daniel Berger, Min Woo Lee, and Will Zalatoris. The Farmers field also includes amateur Nick Dunlap, who shocked the golf world be winning the American Express on Sunday. Dunlap is the first amateur in 33 years to win on the PGA Tour.
The tournament will be played from Wednesday to Saturday for the third consecutive year to appease the NFL playoff schedule. We are back to a standard 36-hole cut this week with the top 65 and ties playing the weekend. Only the South Course is equipped with ShotLink data. This is the last chance for players to earn a spot in next week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM. The top five FedExCup points earners from the Sony Open, The American Express and this week’s Farmers Insurance Open will gain entry into next week’s “Signature Event.”
Betting Strategy
The Farmers Insurance Open is typically one of the easier golf tournaments to handicap. History tells us two things about this event. It tends to be dominated by the longer hitters and is also usually won by a world-class player. So unlike the first few events of this year, do not expect a longshot winner this week. As the past “Winning Trends” show, the victor is almost always one of the 30 best players in the world along with having at least multiple past wins on Tour. Long and straight off the tee is vital. A good percentage of the past winners at this event have also been very good scramblers around the greens. With as many greens as are missed here at Torrey Pines, everyone will have to scramble at times.
This will be one of the ultimate true tests of golf that await players this year. There is no way to fake it around Torrey Pines. Either you have every shot in your bag or you don’t. With the exception of wet conditions due to all the rainfall earlier in the week, the weather looks quite benign. Both bombers and shorter hitters have won this event, but the shorter hitters had two very important things in common. They were mostly accurate off the tee and were elite scramblers and putters on Poa grass. While there are routes to success for shorter hitters off the tee, it is a much tougher task this week.
From the bomber category, we have seen Luke List, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods, and Bubba Watson triumph. On the short-game side, Patrick Reed, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker (twice), and Ben Crane. Interestingly, many of the bombers also have quality short games. Last year, Max Homa emerged victorious thanks to his elite all-around game in every area.
To summarize, there is a specific type of player we should be targeting this week. They should be, preferably, longer hitters off the tee and accurate on approach from 175+ yards. They should be successful par-5 scorers, good scramblers around the green, and historically good-to-average putters on Poa grass. Also, experience and past success at this event and on other long and difficult courses should be another important factor we consider.
Most Important Stats For Success at Torrey Pines
*In order of importance
- Scrambling/SG: ARG
- Total Driving
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity 175+ yds
- SG: Torrey Pines Course History
- SG: Putting (Inside 15 feet)
- SG: Long and Difficult Courses
Weather Forecast – La Jolla, California
Farmers Insurance Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
*Due to the short nature of the week with the tournament starting a day earlier than normal, my “Expert Model” from the Rabbit Hole will be posted here instead of the regular one – for this week only.
Full version here: https://www.betspertsgolf.com/custom-report/2120
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Tony Finau +3000 (currently +2800)
Though he has yet to win at Torrey Pines, Finau’s long-term track record here is one of the best in the field with seven top-18 finishes in his career. One of the most consistent players off the tee, with his long irons, and chipping from long rough, Finau’s main weakness has consistently been with the flat stick. The good news in that area is that he has gained strokes putting here in his six of his nine starts.
(0.75u) BetRivers
Min Woo Lee +3300 (currently +2800)
For me, Lee represented the best value on the entire board when he opened at +3300. He has elite distance off the tee and a matching world-class short game around the greens. He has also plenty of global experience on coastal ocean tracks. He ranks as the 8th best player in the field overall in the past six months and his weakness in Approach will be less magnified considering how small the greens are at Torrey Pines combined with his ability to scramble.
(0.80u) BetMGM
Hideki Matsuyama +5500 (currently +7000)
While I wished I had waited to bet Matsuyama until his odds bottomed out, nevertheless, I do not agree with the current sentiment that he is not even worth betting. While his recent results have left much to be desired, Torrey Pines is a course that brings out the best in him and that magnifies his skill set. He thrives on tougher scoring tracks and has the tee-to-green game to be in contention come Saturday’s final round.
(0.45u) BetRivers
Will Zalatoris +6000
This is a huge “course fit” week. If you are not either an excellent long iron player/bomber off the tee or have an elite short game (especially on Poa greens), it is very easy to cross tons of names off the “playable” list. Zalatoris definitely fits the former as he has plenty of distance and, long term, is one of the best long-iron players in this field. He looked much better last week, gaining tee-to-green, at the AMEX than he did the week before. He also has two T7s here and is great value at these odds if the old “Willy Z” is fully back.
(0.40u) BetRivers
Other Outright Bets
- Luke List +9000 (0.27u) – BetRivers
- Justin Rose +9000 (0.27u) – FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20 – all BetRivers
- Collin Morikawa -120 (1.5u)
- Max Homa -120 (1.2u)
- Ludvig Aberg +125 (1u)
- Sungjae Im +125 (1u)
- Min Woo Lee +138 (1u)
- Tony Finau +150 (1u)
Top 30
- Jason Day -120 (1.2u)
- Keegan Bradley -115 (1.2u)
- Sahith Theegala +110 (1u)
- Sepp Straka +120 (1u)
Top 40
- Will Zalatoris +100 (1u)
- Justin Rose +100 (1u)
- Luke List +105 (1.5u)
- Ryan Fox +110 (1u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +125 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images