We’re a few events into the season, but things begin to heat up this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. We’ll start seeing the world’s best golfers week-in and week-out moving forward, and nine of the top 21 and 27 of the top 60 have made the trip to La Jolla, California, this week. The schedule is a bit wonky this week, with the Tour wisely moving the event into the Wednesday-Saturday window instead of competing with the NFL during Conference Championship Sunday.
This week, the field will split the first two days between the North and South courses, with the final two rounds of golf being played on one of the Tour’s toughest tracks, the aforementioned South Course. After keeping some of the tee boxes and adjustments from the 2021 U.S. Open, it’s now the longest track on the Tour. It features thick, penial rough, narrow fairways and small Poa Annua greens, which are notoriously difficult to putt on, especially late in the day. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Course history matters here as well, as 16 of the last 18 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have had a top-10 at this event prior to their win.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about the unique setup this week:
Enormous length, narrow fairways, deep rough, criminally tough greens on which to putt. These are just a few of the ways to describe the South Course. While mostly flat, at 7,765 yards, Torrey Pines is a monster and the longest on Tour. Winds off the coast can also severely hamper a round.
Over the past five years, it’s also played as the ninth-toughest course at 0.55 strokes over par. Almost every metric is tougher here. From scrambling to fairways hit to GIR % – all are significantly lower here than the average PGA Tour course.
Since most players will be in the rough plenty of times this week, it only makes sense that those who drive the ball farthest will have shorter iron shots and a better chance of holding the green. It is much easier for a “bomber” to hit a higher-lofted iron out of deep rough. Four of the past 11 winners ranked first or second for the week in Driving Distance. Furthermore, with only 1.6% of tee shots going out of bounds and zero water hazards, the bigger hitters have complete freedom to bomb away.
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There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Farmers Insurance Open Betting Targets
Ludvig Aberg
I’m putting a premium on distance this week, and since long and straight plays anywhere, I’m starting my card with Ludvig Aberg. We’ve seen course history matter a bit here at Torrey Pines, but I believe course fit rules the day, and we’ve seen premier debutants come to Torrey and perform well and even take home the crown like Jon Rahm did back in 2017.
Since Aberg turned pro back in June, we’ve seen both remarkable consistency and improvements, and after his performance for Europe in September’s Ryder Cup, it was evident that he belongs at the adult table despite his limited number of starts. After a rocky start in terms of strokes gained approach (SG: APP), Aberg has gained strokes in eight straight measured events. You can make a compelling case that his driver is already the best in the game due to his prodigious length and accuracy.
He doesn’t have a ton of Poa putting experience, but he’s shown a ceiling on the greens, gaining 3 or more strokes putting in 9.8% of his pro starts, the third-highest rate in this field.
To Win: 22/1 DraftKings
Top 20: +100 BetMGM
Min Woo Lee
Since he’s played the majority of his pro rounds to date on the DP World Tour or in Asia, Min Woo Lee isn’t going to model well when you’re using the Rabbit Hole. That aside, he’s been white-hot over the fall and winter seasons, winning in Asia and Europe, and has flashed massive upside in his limited PGA Tour starts to date.
His long and lean frame produces insane club head speed, which translates to the longest carry distance in this field and the ability to navigate Torrey’s thick rough when the inevitable fairway is missed. He’s also incredibly adept on and around the green, and that matters a lot this week since these South Course greens are small, and holding them from 200+ yards and/or the rough is extremely difficult.
Min Woo posted a T5 at last June’s U.S. Open, and while Torrey Pines, host of the 2021 U.S. Open, and LACC aren’t carbon copy tracks, it speaks to his ability to contend on major championship layouts.
To Win: 31/1 BetRivers
Top 20: +120 BetMGM
Luke List
We don’t often see sizable improvements in one’s baseline skills at 39 years old, but it’s pretty clear that Luke List has turned a corner. His tee-to-green game has never been a concern, and his distance off the tee clearly plays well here based on his historic success, but he’s suddenly not a complete and total liability on the greens. Over his past 36 rounds, List is strokes gained positive (0.06), and ranks 55th in this week’s field in strokes gained putting. Now, that’s not a headline to lead with, but as recently as 2022, List was losing nearly a stroke per round (-0.89) on the greens.
This is a stronger finishing position bet than outright, with List posting six straight T40 or better finishes here, including three straight T25s, highlighted by 2022’s win at 90/1. In that same price tier but with the improvements highlighted above, I’m willing to take a stab at him winning this event again.
To Win: 90/1 FanDuel
Top 40: +105 BetRivers
Taylor Pendrith
Taylor Pendrith ranked fifth in the Rabbit Hole model that we built on this week’s betting preview, due in large part to his elite driving and carry distance off the tee. His recent tee-to-green form also helps. Pendrith struggled a bit at last week’s American Express, but I really like his recent form over the past few months. He has four T15 or better finishes in his past six starts, and he’s gained strokes putting in his past two starts at Torrey Pines, highlighted by a T16 finish back in 2022.
He’s a long shot, but one with an upside and the exact course fit profile that I’m looking for this week.
To Win: 110/1 FanDuel
Top 40: +160 FanDuel
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Max Homa and Keegan Bradley – Top 40 (+120)
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets within the same finishing tier. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
I’m torn at the very top of the board between defending champ Max Homa and Collin Morikawa, but I think they’re both excellent course fits, and their previous course history is strong. I’ll lean toward Homa here since his price is shorter and pair him with Keegan Bradley, who I would have loved to bet on to win this week if his price weren’t so short. Keegs finished solo second to Homa here last season, and has three T5 or better finishes here in his past six starts.
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