The second week of the 2024 season keeps us in Hawaii, this time at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. This is the season’s first official full-field event, with 144 golfers, including 20 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings, teeing it up at this week’s Sony Open.
Looking at past seasons, you can see that the weather, primarily the wind, can have a massive impact on how this event plays out. Waialae is a second-shot course with small, flat Bermuda greens. The fairways here are significantly narrower than the airport runways featured at Kapalua, but hitting the fairways at Waialae isn’t the skeleton key it was in years past. Having the ideal angle for your second shot is paramount, even more so than finding the fairway off the tee. As they were last week at Kapalua, the green complexes here are Bermudagrass this week, but that’s where the parallels end. These greens are firmer, much smaller, and flatter than what the field saw last week.
Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I prefer to lean on as much data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat, so let’s work with what we have. We do know that course history matters here. According to DataGolf, Waialae Country Club trails only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history. According to Justin Ray, eight of the last ten winners at the Sony Open played the previous week at The Sentry, and the cut rate for players who played the previous week at Kapalua is around 80% over the past three years. Russell Henley’s 2013 win was the lone debutant winner in the past 18 stops at Waialae. That should help form our high-level thoughts this week as we dig into the field, with 36 golfers teeing it up for the second week in a row.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Waialae Country Club:
Because Waialae favors accuracy over distance off the tee, it does a great job of allowing every player type to compete this week by leveling the field. Whoever can shape their drive into the best target zones on the fairway from which to access some of the trickier pin positions on the greens will have a huge edge.
With increases in distance over the years, more players have started to take aggressive lines from the tee, but there is danger with the ball running through the fairway and into the rough and having to hit an unpredictable 70-yard wedge that knuckles up to the green. The 3-inch rough at Waialae is longer than it’s been in previous years and is definitely long enough to make it difficult to control the spin. Golfers that have played here multiple times and understand where and when to lay up are going to have an advantage.
One of the subtleties of Waialae is that thanks to the angles on so many of the holes, there is typically one side of the fairway (or rough) that is a better place to be positioned for the approach shot compared to the opposite side. As Russell Henley remarked, “You just have to pick what side of the fairway you want to miss. There’s usually one side out here that’s better than the other.”
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There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
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Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Sony Open Betting Targets
J.T. Poston
J.T. Poston made strong gains tee-to-green last season, and is looking to build off of those improvements here in 2024. His recent form is excellent, with five T7 or better finishes in his past ten starts, including a T5 last week at Sentry. Poston ranks second in the field in approach (SG: APP) over the past 50 rounds and also leads the field in strokes gained short game (SG: SG) over that time frame. He gained strokes throughout the bag here last season on his way to a T21 finish but enters this year as a markedly improved player with better recent form.
To Win: 30/1 FanDuel
Top 20: +190 FanDuel
Justin Rose
Rosey got off to a rocky start at The Sentry. He took a two-stroke penalty on Thursday after hitting Tyler Moore’s ball by mistake and was never really in contention after that. He recovered over the weekend and had the best score in the field on Sunday at Sentry, posting a 12-under 61. He hasn’t teed it up at Waialae since 2017, but he did finish solo second that year, which is encouraging. The former World #1’s best recent finishes have come on short, positional golf courses (Win at Pebble, T6 at PLAYERS, T25 at Heritage, T12 at Colonial), so I’m looking for him to carry over Sunday’s form to a track well suited for his game.
To Win: 45/1 FanDuel
Top 30: +125 BetRivers
Brendon Todd
It was an uneven Sentry for Brendon Todd, but this is a place that screams his name. I was encouraged to see him get off to a strong start in the first two rounds (67, 64) with new caddie Paul Tesori on the bag, and I think that’ll be a successful pairing and boost Todd’s prospects, especially at tracks like Waialae. In 2023, Todd gained strokes on approach for the first time since 2015 while maintaining his elite accuracy off the tee and prowess on and around the greens. He’s historically been a cutmaker here who hasn’t threatened the top of the board, but at 50/1, I’m willing to pay to find out if this year is different.
To Win: 50/1 FanDuel
Top 30: +110 BetRivers
Keegan Bradley
I’m a sucker for Keegan Bradley, but I believe that he’s a class ahead of most of the golfers in this range on the betting board, so this is a numbers play for me at 75/1. This course forces a lot of layups off the tee, and Ron’s less-than-driver model has Keegan at the top, gaining the most strokes in the field over the past two years in these scenarios. Keegs was seventh in SG: APP last week at Kapalua, but he just couldn’t make a putt. That’s been a common theme throughout his career, but that feels like a blimp on the radar, considering the massive strides he made on the greens last season (+0.48 SG: P) after switching to the unbearably difficult-to-watch aim point technique. He has lots of Waialae experience with a bunch of T15 finishes to his name.
To Win: 75/1 FanDuel
Top 30: +110 BetRivers
J.J. Spaun
This isn’t a star-studded field, but I was surprised to see J.J. Spaun inside the top ten in SG: T2G over the past 50 rounds. He’s such a consistently strong iron player, gaining strokes on approach in 16 of his past 17 measured events. He’s going to keep the ball in play off the tee, and he’s an elite scrambler if he misses the green. The adventure always comes on the green, but his recent strong showings at the RSM and ZOZO Championship are encouraging. Last year’s T12 here was his best finish, and I believe he’s a value at this number.
To Win: 80/1 BetRivers
Top 40: +105 BetRivers
Aaron Rai
Never trust a man who wears two black gloves when he plays. It’s a simple motto, but it’s one that I’m violating this week when backing Aaron Rai at 80/1. His game is very similar to J.J. Spaun’s, minus the elite approach game. Rai has been a bit more consistent of late though, and his putting has improved, though it’s far from a strength of his game. I like his fit for this course, and he’s likely a better finishing position bet than outright, but at this number, I’m willing to take a shot. He has top-ten finishes in his past two starts on the DP World Tour and had a strong swing season overall, nearly winning the DPWT’s BMW Championship back in September.
To Win: 80/1 FanDuel
Top 40: +110 BetRivers
FanDuel Finishing Position/To Make The Cut Parlays
Corey Conners, Chris Kirk, and J.T. Poston To Make The Cut (+107)
As of this writing, FanDuel has yet to post T30 or T40 finishing position bets, so I’m forced to pivot. For this event, where course fit and history matter perhaps more than anywhere else, I actually prefer this option.
Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing to make the cut. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
I’ve already laid out the case for Poston, but Corey Conners has never missed a cut here and hasn’t been outside the top 12 in his past four starts. Also, I’m comfortable with Chris Kirk’s current form, and he’s made three straight cuts here, with two top-three finishes.
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