Sony Open – 2024 Betting Preview

In the first full-field event of 2024, the PGA Tour hops Hawaiian islands for the second event of the “Aloha Swing”, going from Maui to O’ahu for the Sony Open played at the classical Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. With legendary figures such as Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino, and Ben Crenshaw having won championships here, the course carries on still today, withstanding the test of time. Having hosted the Sony Open since 1965, it is the third oldest annual course on Tour, only behind Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Waialae CC is known as a shot-makers golf course distinguished by its narrow corridors, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough, and firm greens. It is a positional track that has effectively neutralized any advantages held by bombers off the tee. In essence, this week is all about strategy, position, and shot-making on a tight and flat course. In the words of Kevin Kisner, “I like that it’s a shot-maker’s golf course. It’s a shorter, ball-striker’s paradise. You’ve got to play to certain spots. I think it’s Point A to Point B and make some putts.” This is why we typically see the same type of player (shorter-hitting ball-striker with a quality short game) have success here year after year.

Coming off four rounds at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, this week will present quite the contrast with the completely divergent Waialae CC. While Kapalua has enormous amounts of slope and is the toughest walk in golf, Waialae is one of the flattest courses on Tour and is perhaps the easiest walk. The sizes of both courses are also completely different. Whereas Kapalua has massively wide fairways, Waialae has tight tree-lined corridors. The greens are also dissimilar from each other. Kapalua’s are much bigger with more slope and grain while Waialae’s are smaller, flatter, and easier to make putts.

While not a complete birdie-fest, minus the wind-blown 2020 event, the average winning score over the past five tournaments has been 21-under par. It’s a course where if you hit good shots, you can make a birdie on almost every hole. But if you are in the rough or out of position, it will be a tough scramble for par.

The Field

36 golfers who played in last week’s Sentry event are making the short trip to Honolulu this week. As the course trends show, those who did not play last week will need to shake off the competitive rust and will be at a slight disadvantage. Past performance at Waialae is of massive importance this week as it’s the second most predictive out of any course on Tour. Only Augusta National features a greater correlation with course history.

While not the star-studded event we saw at Kapalua, this will still be one of the strongest Sony Open fields ever with 15 of the top 40 and 33 of the top 65 in the Official World Golf Rankings in attendance. The main headliners include Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, and last week’s winner, Chris Kirk.

Will Zalatoris, who returned to competition at the Hero World Challenge in December, is scheduled to make his first official start since the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Gary Woodland will also make his return to action after undergoing surgery in September to extract a brain lesion.

Being the first cut event of the year, the 144 golfers in the field will be “cut” to the top 65 players, including ties, by the end of Friday afternoon’s second round. Unlike The Sentry, the Sony Open is not a signature event and will have a prize purse of $7.9 million.

Past Winners and Odds

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Betting Strategy

The key to success here typically revolves around keeping the ball in play off the tee and getting hot with the putter on the Bermuda greens. I am favoring strong Bermuda putters who show confidence on these greens and can convert birdie chances. These players will be at the top of my SG: Putting split in the model. Like with most tournaments, Waialae is a second-shot course where SG: Approach is always a key factor. With the two par-5s being the easiest on Tour, players must take advantage of those holes each round.

Other factors for success that I have baked into the model this week include players who thrive with their short-to-mid irons from 125-200 yards and players who are positive on par-4s from 400-500 yards. This week’s unique splits, such as golfers who have performed well on other “Less-Than-Driver” courses, and on courses that are shorter than average, is another angle to research. With steady winds at 15+ mph for most of the week, I have also added SG: Wind to the model. Most of those “unique” splits are self-explanatory, but if anyone ever has any questions, feel free to ask on the Discord channel.

Like last week, this is another event where the trends are quite strong in predicting qualities for a potential winner. Playing the week before at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, having multiple years of experience on this course, winning at least once on Tour and being a great putter were all prerequisites for having past success here.

According to Data Golf, Waialae is second to only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history, so this is as good a week as any to factor past course history here into your research process. Course history combined with golfers who played at Kapalua last week are factored in heavily to my process this week. A majority of players on my outright and finish position card fit both of those boxes including Corey Conners, Brian Harman, and Justin Rose among others.

Most Important Stats For Success at Waialae Country Club

*In order of importance

  • SG: APP
  • Fairways Gained
  • Par 4 Scoring (400-500 yds)
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Proximity 125-200 yds
  • Waialae CC Course History
  • Good Drive %
  • Bogeys Avoided
  • SG: ARG

Weather Forecast – Honolulu, Hawaii

Sony Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Brian Harman +2500 (currently +2200)

Now up to ninth in the world rankings and coming off a tie for fifth place at The Sentry, Harman now heads to a course that is much better suited to his game. He ranks first overall in my model for the week and fits the course perfectly with his accuracy off the tee and elite short game. While his history at Waialae isn’t the best, he typically hasn’t played the Sentry the week before either. The couple that he has, his results have been much better including a fourth-place finish in 2018.

(0.90u) BetRivers

Corey Conners +3300 (currently +2800)

Conners ranks out as the third-best player in my model this week and the best ball-striker by a sizeable margin. While his overall short game remains a weakness, it is notable that in his five starts at Waialae, along with having a positive strokes gained number around the green, he has gained a total of 10.2 strokes putting which is best at any course. He also has the third-best course history here with four top-12 finishes since 2019.

(0.70u) BetMGM

Justin Rose +5000

Coming off tying the course record on Sunday at Kapalua, Rose has the upside and skillset to win this week. He finished second here in 2017 and for some reason hasn’t played at Waialae since. He thrives on short, strategic, coastal tracks where his elite wedge play and strong short game can propel him to the top of the leaderboard.

(0.45u) BetMGM

Hideki Matsuyama +6500

(0.35u) PointsBet

One of the ultimate boom-or-bust bets this week. Matsuyama has the talent to win going away or could completely miss the cut. Even though he did not perform well last week, Waialae has a special place in his heart considering his win here in 2022. As the third-best long-term approach player in this field and boasting one of the highest amounts of win equity, I’ll roll the dice any week at these odds.

Other Outright Bets

  • Cam Davis +5500 (0.37u) – BetMGM
  • Adam Svensson +7400 (0.27u) – PointsBet
  • Keegan Bradley +7500 (0.30u) – FanDuel
  • Keith Mitchell +8000 (0.25u) – Caesars
  • Nick Taylor +12700 (0.15u) – PointsBet

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20

Top 30 – BetRivers

  • S.W. Kim +110 (1u)
  • Brendon Todd +110 (1.1u)
  • Cam Davis +115 (1u)
  • Adam Svensson +120 (1u)
  • Justin Rose +125 (1u)
  • Hideki Matsuyama +150 (1u)

Top 40 – BetRivers

  • Matt Kuchar +100 (1u)
  • Keith Mitchell +110 (1u)
  • Hayden Buckley +200 (1u)

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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images