And we’re back!!
The PGA Tour wasn’t away for very long, but the official start of the 2024 season kicks off this week with the annual trip to Maui for The Sentry at the Kapalua Plantation Course, formerly known as the Tournament of Champions. With an expanded field that includes all 2023 winners along with top-50 finishers from last season’s FedEx Cup Standings, the 2024 Sentry dropped the TOC moniker and will feature its largest field, with 59 of the 60 qualifiers teeing up this week. (Rory bowed out to start next week in Dubai).
This is a great way to get back into things, with a loaded field at a unique par-73 track. As is often the case with coastal courses, wind can play a major factor, and the scenic elevation changes make for a spectacular viewing event to start the season off right. This is one of the Tour’s ‘Signature Events,’ formerly known as both “elevated” and “designated,” so the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is large, as are the FedEx Cup points attached to one’s finishing position. This is also a no-cut event, which is the case for most of 2024’s Signature Events.
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For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about The Plantation Course at Kapalua:
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Due to several factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score has typically been in the low-to-mid 20s, under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas (-14) and Smith’s (-34) victories being separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the second-easiest course on Tour at -3.08. Last year’s tournament set the record at a whopping -4.08 under par. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers a few potential challenges, including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.
As far as the approach yardage ranges, there is an above-average rate of short and long approaches. From 50-100 yards, there is a 44% increase compared to the average Tour course. Almost 40% of all approaches will be with wedges, which is the highest rate of any course on Tour. And with all of the lengthy holes at Kapalua, the 200+ yard range will also see an even higher overall number at 31% compared to the Tour average of 27%.
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Sentry Betting Targets
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Heading into last year’s final round here, Matthew Fitzpatrick was in a group with Scottie Scheffler and J.J. Spaun tied for second place behind Collin Morikawa after shooting 66/69/66 in his first three rounds at the Plantation Course. The final round wasn’t quite as sharp, but he closed at 20/1 last year, having never played here before, and this year, with better recent form and four rounds of experience under his belt, he’s 30/1.
He ended the year on a high note, finishing T9 or better in five of his final seven starts, including the BMW and Tour Championship, along with a comfortable win in October at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DP World Tour. He’s not an elite Par-4 scorer historically, but the vast majority of these shorter Par-4s are different, considering its bomb and wedge, and Fitzpatrick’s short game and putting chops on slow Bermudagrass greens are among the best in the field. As of this writing, Fitzpatrick is my only outright bet at the moment.
To Win: 30/1 Caesars
Collin Morikawa
I don’t love the current outright price for Collin Morikawa, who’s 12/1 across the board. Perhaps I should, though, because he clearly loves playing here. He’s spoken in the past about how much this event means to him, and he’s thrived here since turning pro, last year’s final few holes aside. He’s yet to finish outside the top 7 in four starts, and his game is perfectly suited for a second-shot wedge-fest.
He’s also finished inside the top 7 in his past three starts, including a win at the ZOZO Championship in late October. If he gets off to a slow-ish start in Round 1 and his live outright number drifts, I’ll be looking to add Morikawa to my outright card. In the meantime, I think his top-10 price at plus money is a great look.
Top 10: +138 BetRivers
Erik Van Rooyen
After a brutal spring and summer, Erik Van Rooyen turned a corner late in the season and posted a few strong finishes, including a win at November’s World Wide Technology Championship. His approach game is much improved, gaining strokes in his past five measured events, which doesn’t include his win since no shotlink data was captured at El Cardonal. He’s played here before, which matters in my opinion since this can be a unique place to navigate on your first go-round, finishing T25 back in 2022.
BetRivers is one of the few books willing to post a top 30 market in this 59-man field, and I like Rooyen at his price to finish in the top half of it.
Top 30: +138 BetRivers
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im – T20 (+134)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets within the same finishing tier. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T20s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) also to come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These are golfers that I love this week, but I’m not paying 5/1 for Scheffler, and Sungjae Im is playing excellent golf of late and has finished no worse than T13 here in three starts.
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