The Sentry – 2024 Betting Preview

After a six-week hiatus, regular PGA Tour golf is back! Happy New Year to all those in the Betsperts Golf family and to everyone reading this. There is no better place to kick off the 2024 calendar year than the warmth, beauty, and lush green grass of Hawaii at The Sentry, played at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Though the PGA Tour is experiencing a turbulent stretch due to the disruption brought on by the LIV Golf Tour, the defection of Jon Rahm, and seemingly futile attempts at reaching an agreement with the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia and other entities to merge all of the different golf leagues, The Sentry event represents golf’s rebirth and hopefully a calendar year full of intrigue and fierce competition.

Along with it being one of the Tour’s “Signature Events”, this year’s tournament takes on added significance because of the devasting Maui wildfires that killed 97 people earlier in the year in Lahaina which is just 13 miles away from Kapalua. The fires also destroyed more than 2,000 structures. And though the property at the Kapalua Resort was not affected, a third of the staff who live in the Lahaina area lost their homes. Said Tyler Dennis, the Tour’s chief competition officer, “There is no other organization in sport which rallies around those in need like the PGA Tour. Given the overwhelming support for playing the tournament, the Tour and The Sentry are currently working on plans to further raise awareness and assist with fundraising and community service to Maui in a thoughtful and respectful manner.”

Since 1999, the Tour has kicked off the new year with this tournament which has been held at the Kapalua Resort near Lahaina on the island of Maui. Kapalua is where paradise and golf meet. Once the site of a large pineapple plantation, it’s such a unique course that you can see whales breaching in the distance on the first tee, and on the 18th tee can wallop a 450+ yard drive. Thanks to the wind and elevation changes, it is one of the few courses on Earth where the yardage on the scorecard is irrelevant on many holes.

This compilation of the world’s best golfers is a unique, no-cut, small-field event, played on a low-scoring par-73 course that has expansive fairways, numerous elevation changes, and gusty coastal breezes. Thanks to the combination of easy-to-hit fairways and greens, it’s one of the most genuine birdie fests on Tour, and it favors the best wedge players and the hottest putters. It plays the complete opposite of a target-style golf course. The allowance for creativity and multiple options for each shot makes it a fun track to play. Players with every shot in their bag who can maneuver the terrain and manage the wind will best position themselves for success at Kapalua.

After a wind-blown 2020 where the winning score by Justin Thomas was only 14-under par, the past three events have seen scoring return to the more common finishing number of 25-under or lower. After Cam Smith took birdie-making to another level in 2022 by winning with an event record of 34-under, last year, Jon Rahm took advantage of Collin Morikawa’s final-round collapse by rallying from as many as nine strokes back to win by two.

The Field

In the past, as its previous name implied, “The Sentry Tournament of Champions” (now just “The Sentry”) has always only been for PGA Tour winners. Things are changing this year with the top 50 from the previous year’s FedEx Cup along with any other Tour winner from 2023 eligible to participate. Currently, 59 players are in the field, including 21 of the top 25, and 38 of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings.

The Sentry kicks off the “Hawaii Swing” (which concludes with next week’s Sony Open) and is meant as a paradise of escape from the cold winter enveloping most of America by providing the best players on Tour with a rewarding experience at the Kapalua Resort.

With everyone in the field coming in with at least a month off from competition, it’s always interesting to see which players have been grinding away back home over the break and come out sharp in the first round. The resort setup is meant to help the pros ease back into the grind after (mostly) putting their clubs away over the holidays. Related to returning from a long break, Patrick Cantlay remarked, “It’s a good golf course to kind of shake some rust off. The fairways are big and there’s lots of space out here to hit shots and it’s also a golf course where you have to be very creative, and so you have to play all the different shots out here to be successful.”

Past Sentry champions that will be teeing it off this week include Harris English, Xander Schauffele, and Jordan Spieth. The past two winners at Kapalua, Smith and Rahm, are both ineligible to play due to joining the LIV Golf League. All of the other top-ranked players in the world who qualified will participate this week except for Rory McIlroy who has once again decided to skip this event and begin his season in Dubai in a couple of weeks.

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Past Winners and Odds

Betting Trends

*Only one player fits 11 of the 12 trends: Scottie Scheffler

*Three players fit 10 trends: Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa

*8/9 trends: Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Sam Burns

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Betting Strategy

Just a brief FYI to start with. For 2024, I am changing up my outright betting strategy a bit this year. In my first year betting golf outrights two years ago, I was very flexible in my allocation of units towards golfers across the board no matter their odds. I believe I hit 11 outrights in 2022 and profited greatly. Last year, I switched to the more conventional “bet different amounts to win the same amount” for each outright, and it was a struggle. As we all know, due to the volatility in golf, there is nothing “conventional” about the sport. So this year, I’m kind of blending the two strategies. The goal is obviously to make a profit…even if it’s a small one.

So instead of following a cookie-cutter approach, I’m going to be a bit more flexible. Total units bet will still be the same…typically between 3-4.5 units. But this week, for example, Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the field. I do not want to put 4 units on him at +550 though. I may, however, put 2 units on him to cover my bases if I feel that strongly that he will win. And then spread 2 units elsewhere. Will I be missing out on those huge outright profit gains by not sticking to the former strategy? Yes. But with all of the variance in golf, I’ve learned that steady profit is a much better path.

Over time, I have come to realize (and the data backs this up) that my strength related to golf betting is the head-to-head (and 3-ball) tournament and round matchups. Those will be my focus, though I will continue to provide my best data-based outright and finish position bets as well.

Plantation Course at Kapalua

With such a small field event of only 59 players, along with a handful of around 10-15 players who are very likely to finish in the bottom third for the week, this is a tournament where bets will be lower in volume given the restricted value on the board.

Due to several factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score is typically in the low-to-mid 20s under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas and Smith’s victories that were separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the easiest course on Tour at -3.08. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers plenty of potential challenges including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.

Past course history is one of the most important narratives for this week because it matters a lot. High-percentage trends in golf matter. As can be seen in the Trends section above, there is a decent amount related to course history that have proven quite predictive over the years. A major theme in the trends is past playing history at Kapalua. As many PGA veterans have commented, experience matters at this course. No first-time player has won here since 2008. Out of the 40 players in this field who have played here before, there were only seven top 10s in their first appearance with an average finish position of 16th.

Patrick Cantlay spoke about how important experience is on this course by saying, “I think you have to hit more shots around this golf course. So I think there’s more half shots with the wind blowing 15 or 20 every day, and then there’s a lot more uphill or downhill dramatic shots that you have to hit.” In other words, playing in these windy conditions on uneven lies forces players to be able to hit all types of different shots. There are so many good players making their debut this week such as Tyrrell Hatton, Eric Cole, and Tommy Fleetwood. For the most part, I am fading each one of them because of this lack of experience.

The forecasted strength of the wind will be one of the most important things to monitor leading up to Thursday. As of now, the winds appear to be relatively moderate with gusts not higher than 20 mph on any day. If this forecast holds there could be another record-scoring performance as players will generate one birdie opportunity after another.

I am also strongly weighing Driving Distance over Driving Accuracy this week. With players able to pound driver on a majority of holes at Kapalua without much fear of hazards of any kind, players with added distance have an advantage, even if only a small one due to everyone getting excess rollout on their tee shots. As you see below, Driving Distance has the highest increase related to correlation to SG: Total.

With almost everyone having a good chance to hit the green, it will be the quality of the approach shot that will most likely define the result on each hole. Thus, SG: Approach is the most important stat this week. In my opinion, a player’s ability to manage approach flight and land the ball on the proper quadrant of these undulating greens so it can feed toward the hole will be the foremost factor in determining the winner.

With the threat of another 30-under winning score and essentially a putting contest, we want players who are birdie machines like the past two winners in Rahm and Cam Smith. I want to bet on golfers who have experience in handling these massive Bermuda greens and who succeed at three-putt avoidance. This is covered in my Scoring sub-model below which incorporates all of the main scoring stats this week including Birdie or Better %, Proximity to the Hole, and SG: Par 5.

Finally, historically, longshots have very little chance of winning this event. As you see in the “Past Winners and Odds” section above, the average odds of the winner here since 2010 has been +1700 with only one long shot winning.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Plantation Course at Kapalua

  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: APP
  • Proximity 50-125 yds
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Proximity 200+ yds
  • 3-Putt Avoidance
  • Driving Distance
  • SG: ARG

Weather Forecast – Honolua Bay, Maui, Hawaii

The Sentry – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Collin Morikawa +1400

Through three rounds at Kapalua last year, Morikawa had this tournament in the bag. It seemed that the only item in doubt was how many strokes he would win by. He was dominant and in control of every club in his bag until he had one of the biggest final-round collapses in PGA Tour history, losing to eventual champion, Jon Rahm, by two strokes. There is a reason, however, for why he had such a huge lead and why he has never finished worse than seventh in his four career starts here. On a course where pinpoint approach play on massive undulating greens is one of the few “separators”, whether with his wedges or long-irons from 200+ yards, Morikawa is the best in the field. He has proven to be a much better putter on the slower greens he will see this week. And with Rahm’s win potential removed from the equation, he has a great chance to be in position to rebound with a victory this year.

(1.2u) BetRivers

Patrick Cantlay +1400

Cantlay has always thrived in birdie fests as evidenced by his top ranking on “Easy Scoring Courses”. While his approach play is not on the same level as Morikawa’s, his ability on the greens combined with his par-5 acumen and his scoring prowess make him an easy selection. He has two top-five finishes at Kapalua and plenty of overall experience with 20 total rounds on this course.

(1.15u) BetMGM

Xander Schauffele +1600

Schauffele continues to sneak under the radar as one of the best overall players in the world who simply doesn’t win as much as he should. Since picking up back-to-back wins in the summer of 2022, he has accumulated eight top-5 finishes. He is perhaps the most consistent player in the world as he has not missed a single cut since the 2022 Masters! Historically, he has thrived in no-cut events such as The Sentry this week. He leads all players in the field by a wide margin in such tournaments which includes his win here back in 2019 along with two other top-5 finishes.

(1.05u) BetMGM

Finishing Position Picks

Top 10 – all BetRivers

  • Collin Morikawa +138 (1.5u)
  • Xander Schauffele +138 (1u)

Top 20

Top 30 – BetRivers

Tom Hoge +138 (1u)

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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images