Sanderson Farms Championship – Betting Preview

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After a couple of weeks off, including last week’s disaster of a Ryder Cup performance by the American team, the PGA Tour returns to stroke play competition for the second event of the FedExCup Fall “Swing Season” in Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Played at the Country Club of Jackson for the tenth consecutive year, it is a relatively long and straightforward tree-lined parkland course. Golfers who have added length off the tee and can get hot with the putter on the fast Bermuda greens will have a definite advantage. With minimal hazards and non-penal rough, scores have averaged 19-under par over the last five events.

As is typical for fall events in the Swing season, the field for the Sanderson Farms is relatively weak. Other than the rising phenom and member of Europe’s winning Ryder Cup team, Ludvig Aberg, there are no headline players this year. The highest-ranked players in the field are 35th-ranked Emiliano Grillo and 50th-ranked Tom Hoge. Six of the last nine winners at this event have been first-time winners on the PGA Tour.

Five golfers who finished in the top 50 of this year’s FedExCup are teeing it up in the Sanderson Farms Championship: Eric Cole, Lee Hodges, Hoge, Adam Svensson, and Emiliano Grillo.The top 50 in the FedExCup – all of whom qualified for 2024’s Signature Events – were locked after the TOUR Championship. Their position in the standings cannot change based on their results this week.

There is quite a bit of depth in the mid-tier as it seems that most players in this range have made the trip to Mississippi. Last year’s winner, Mackenzie Hughes returns to defend his crown, as do other past winners including Cameron Champ, Scott Stallings, Ryan Armour, Peter Malnati and Cody Gribble. There are three golfers in the field with home ties to Mississippi including Davis Riley, Chad Ramey, and Hayden Buckley.

Betting Strategies

At almost 7,500 yds, and with little danger off-the-tee (OTT), and a higher than avg GIR% and BoB% from the rough, the Country Club of Jackson is a “Driver Heavy” course. However, shorter players can still contend here. But distance off the tee is definitely an advantage and is one of the metrics used in my “Core 4” in the weekly model. Two of the last three winners here (Sam Burns and Sergio Garcia) have led the field in strokes gained OTT. Garcia gained minimal strokes putting, while Burns actually lost two strokes on the greens. Five of the past seven winners here ranked high in driving distance for the week.

Yet, when we back out and take more of a macro look at what it takes to have success here, gaining strokes on approach and putting are also major factors. Last year, seven of the top ten on the leaderboard (including winner Mackenzie Hughes) also ranked in the top in gaining strokes on approach for the week. So along with length off the tee, SG: Approach and SG: Putting are also heavily factored into the “Core 4” model this week as well.

There are two key approach ranges to focus on for this week. 34% of approaches are from the wedge range of 100-150 yards. The Tour average from this range is only 27%. Also, thanks to the lengthy par 5s, 18% of approaches will come from 250+ yards which are well above the average of 10%. Accuracy when “Going for the Green” with second shot approaches on the par 5s will be crucial this week. This is where the longer hitters have a definite advantage in attempting to set up birdie opportunities on the four par 5s. The par 5s here rank as the second toughest on Tour in “Hitting the Green %” when going for the green on the second shot. I am definitely focusing on players who have success from the 100-150 yard range.

In the four events prior to the Burns and Garcia victories, the winners in those events gained an average of 1.48 strokes putting per round. These gains are applauded far and wide by players who speak of them being the purest greens on Tour. There are numerous mentions from interviews of how the ball stays on the putting line. Professional golfers also prefer fast greens to slower ones. These here at the Country Club of Jackson are some of the fastest on Tour, approaching 13 on the stimp-meter. With the average score here being 19-under the last five events, the argument can be made that this is a putting contest.

Related to the overall lack of danger and ease of scoring conditions, stats like BoB%, Scoring Changes Gained from inside 15 feet, and Par 5 Scoring are also heavily weighted in the “Scoring” sub-model this week and are heavily weighted in the model.

When combining these most vital four metrics for success at the Country Club of Jackson, we have a top ten that includes (in order) Eric Cole, Stephan Jaeger, Ludvig Aberg, Davis Riley, Sam Ryder, Peter Kuest, Mark Hubbard, Adam Svensson, Emiliano Grillo and Dylan Wu. As for the issue of Aberg coming across six time zones from an emotionally draining Ryder Cup victory in Italy, I’m completely fading him on the betting front this week. His outright and finishing position odds are so wildly inflated for someone so inexperienced and coming off the hangover from Rome.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Country Club of Jackson

*In order of importance

  • SG: Approach
  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Driving Distance
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Proximity: 100-150
  • SG: Easy Scoring Courses
  • Proximity: 200+
  • Scoring Chances Gained
  • SG: ARG

Weather Forecast – Jackson, Mississippi

Fortinet Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Emiliano Grillo +2800

With multiple past Tour victories including recently at the Schwab Challenge, Grillo presents the best combination of win equity and value in the upper tier. Making this selection even more enticing is the fact that he tends to play his best in weak fields and on easy courses, ranking as the top player in that metric this week. He also loves playing during the fall swing season ranking as the sixth best player in the field in that metric. He checks every box from ball-striking to putting. That’s right, PUTTING. Well known for his struggles on the greens, Grillo has now gained with his putter in 12 of his last 15 events. Last year, he finished fifth here in Jackson gaining 3.4 strokes with his flat stick.

(0.85u) BetRivers

Davis Riley +5500

The Mississippi native should be well at ease this week considering this is his fifth start on a PGA course that he has played perhaps more than anyone else in the field. While the results haven’t been the greatest with two missed cuts, he did finish 19th here last year. He is one of the best approach players in this field and should know these greens better than anyone. His best finishes have been on Bermuda grass courses, and I like his chances to put it all together this week

(0.43u) BetRivers

Ben Griffin +5500

Similar to Riley, Griffin will be in his comfort zone this week. He thrives on Bermuda greens and is very skilled at hitting out of Bermuda rough. Evidence of his Bermuda success includes top-five finishes at the Wyndham and Bermuda Championships. His main weakness of accuracy off the tee will be somewhat mitigated here considering the lack of hazards and penal rough. This is a great price for a player who is tracking for his first Tour win and who fits the course well.

(0.43u) BetRivers

Tom Hoge +6000

Hoge enters the week as the third-highest player in this field in the world rankings yet is only 23rd most likely to win on the odds board. While he tends to play very inconsistent at times, he definitely has the ceiling to win this event. My model has him ranked as the 8th best long-term player in the field and the sixth-best on approach. He also is the best player in the field in fall swing season events since 2020. Last year during the fall he had finishes of 12th, 4th, 8th, and 13th.

(0.40u) BetRivers

Other Outright Selections

Garrick Higgo +6000 (0.40u) – BetRivers
Akshay Bhatia +7500 (0.32u) – FanDuel
Nick Hardy +8000 (0.30u) – BetRivers

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20 – all BetRivers

  • Stephan Jaeger +115 (1u)
  • Emiliano Grillo +130 (1u)
  • Eric Cole +138 (1u)

Top 30

Top 40

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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images