Strategy
This second event of the fall swing season is definitely an interesting slate from a field and pricing perspective. Rising star Ludvig Aberg is the heavy favorite and highest priced at $10.9k. Yet all types of red flags are surrounding him including 30% ownership, his overall inexperience, the travel across six time zones from Italy to Mississippi, and how physically and emotionally drained he might be coming off playing such an important role in Europe’s Ryder Cup victory. If multi-entering, my strategy would be to play him around 10% and only with my other five best players. This creates the prospect of not missing out if he does play well and my core has a great week. If playing single-entry or 3-max contests, I am not using him at all.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bI won’t fault anyone for loading up on Stephan Jaeger, but my two favorite upper tier players this week are Eric Cole and Emiliano Grillo. Cole grew up playing on Bermuda greens and has professed his love for Bermuda courses. His ball-striking and putting prowess should allow for him to be in contention all week. As for Grillo, his multiple past Tour victories including recently at the Schwab Challenge, Grillo presents the best combination of win equity and value in the upper tier. Making this selection even more enticing is the fact that he tends to play his best in weak fields and on easy courses, ranking as the top player in that metric this week. He also loves playing during the fall swing season ranking as the sixth best player in the field in that metric. He checks every box from ball-striking to putting. That’s right, PUTTING. Well known for his struggles on the greens, Grillo has now gained with his putter in 12 of his last 15 events. Last year, he finished fifth here in Jackson gaining 3.4 strokes with his flat stick.
I will play some Keith Mitchell at $9.9K, but will be fading the likes of Lucas Herbert, S.H. Kim, Beau Hossler and Doug Ghim. My core grouping begins with Adam Svensson at $9.0K and includes many of the players below him and into the $7K range. There are so many high-ceiling plays based on how the course plays (discussed below) in the $8K range that I will have some lineups that skip the $9K and $10K range completely. There is enough depth in the $7K range that I don’t think anyone needs to dip into the dumpster that is the $6K range. The only players down there that I am willing to take a chance on are Joel Dahmen and Kevin Kisner.
The Course and Important Stats
At almost 7,500 yds, and with little danger off-the-tee (OTT), and a higher than avg GIR% and BoB% from the rough, the Country Club of Jackson is a “Driver Heavy” course. However, shorter players can still contend here. But distance off the tee is definitely an advantage and is one of the metrics used in my “Core 4” in the weekly model. Two of the last three winners here (Sam Burns and Sergio Garcia) have led the field in strokes gained OTT. Garcia gained minimal strokes putting, while Burns actually lost two strokes on the greens. Five of the past seven winners here ranked high in driving distance for the week.
Yet, when we back out and take more of a macro look at what it takes to have success here, gaining strokes on approach and putting are also major factors. Last year, seven of the top ten on the leaderboard (including winner Mackenzie Hughes) also ranked in the top in gaining strokes on approach for the week. So along with length off the tee, SG: Approach and SG: Putting are also heavily factored into the “Core 4” model this week as well.
There are two key approach ranges to focus on for this week. 34% of approaches are from the wedge range of 100-150 yards. The Tour average from this range is only 27%. Also, thanks to the lengthy par 5s, 18% of approaches will come from 250+ yards which are well above the average of 10%. Accuracy when “Going for the Green” with second shot approaches on the par 5s will be crucial this week. This is where the longer hitters have a definite advantage in attempting to set up birdie opportunities on the four par 5s. The par 5s here rank as the second toughest on Tour in “Hitting the Green %” when going for the green on the second shot. I am definitely focusing on players who have success from the 100-150 yard range.
In the four events prior to the Burns and Garcia victories, the winners in those events gained an average of 1.48 strokes putting per round. These gains are applauded far and wide by players who speak of them being the purest greens on Tour. There are numerous mentions from interviews of how the ball stays on the putting line. Professional golfers also prefer fast greens to slower ones. These here at the Country Club of Jackson are some of the fastest on Tour, approaching 13 on the stimp-meter. With the average score here being 19-under the last five events, the argument can be made that this is a putting contest.
Related to the overall lack of danger and ease of scoring conditions, stats like BoB%, Scoring Changes Gained from inside 15 feet, and Par 5 Scoring are also heavily weighted in the “Scoring” sub-model this week and are heavily weighted in the model.
When combining these most vital four metrics for success at the Country Club of Jackson, we have a top ten that includes (in order) Eric Cole, Stephan Jaeger, Ludvig Aberg, Davis Riley, Sam Ryder, Peter Kuest, Mark Hubbard, Adam Svensson, Emiliano Grillo and Dylan Wu. As for the issue of Aberg coming across six time zones from an emotionally draining Ryder Cup victory in Italy, I’m completely fading him on the betting front this week. His outright and finishing position odds are so wildly inflated for someone so inexperienced and coming off the hangover from Rome.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Country Club of Jackson
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Driving Distance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Proximity: 100-150
- SG: Easy Scoring Courses
- Proximity: 200+
- Scoring Chances Gained
- SG: ARG
Weather Forecast – Jackson, Mississippi
Sanderson Farms Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
NONE
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
