Research and Stat Model: Wyndham Championship

My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.

In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.

Sedgefield Country Club is a very model friendly course. There are plenty of times when a course doesn’t really fit into a model well because it fits all different types of players and skill sets. That doesn’t apply to the Wyndham Championship. There are very clear key stats given the history of the tournament. Nearly half the holes at Sedgefield fit into the same yardage bucket, and over one-quarter of the approach shots coming from the same bucket as well. You have to hit fairways and avoid three-putting the Bermuda greens. In addition, the two Par 5s on this Par 70 have high eagle rates, requiring a go for the green in two mentality.

This Week’s Stats

SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. Though putting oddly ranks higher among the top finishers at this tournament, approach is still incredibly important as always

1. Russell Henley
2. Adam Schenk
3. Mark Hubbard
4. Alex Smalley
5. Doug Ghim
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Aaron Rai
8. Lucas Glover
9. Chez Reavie
10. Adam Hadwin
11. _

Opportunities Gained — Opportunities gained is a vital stat because it tells you who is giving themself birdie looks. Greens in regulation percentage is somewhat fluky because they could be hitting greens and still leaving themselves 40-foot putts. We want guys who are gaining shots on approach by giving themselves birdie putts inside 15-feet.

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Alex Smalley
3. Justin Thomas
4. Lucas Glover
5. Ludvig Aberg
6. Chris Kirk
7. Ryan Palmer
8. Eric Cole
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Stephan Jaeger
11. _

Fairways Gained — The top 20 on the leaderboard at the Wyndham Championship all hit fairways at a higher rate than those that finish outside the top 20. We want players that are going to find fairways and set themselves up for an easier green in regulation. 

1. Aaron Rai
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Ryan Moore
4. Ryan Armour
5. Matthew NeSmith
6. Doug Ghim
7. Brendon Todd
8. Lucas Glover
9. Russell Henley
10. Brice Garnett
11. _

Recent Form — We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.

1. Lucas Glover
2. JT Poston
3. Vincent Norrman
4. Stephan Jaeger
5. Taylor Pendrith
6. Garrick Higgo
7. Beau Hossler
8. Nicolai Hojgaard
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Ben An
11. _

Eagles Gained — Both Par 5s at Sedgefield have high eagle rates. We want to prioritize players that are going to give themselves a chance at an eagle putt, which should hopefully turn into an easy birdie at the very least.

1. Kevin Tway
2. Mathias Schmid
3. Ludvig Aberg
4. Mathis Schwab
5. CT Pan
6. Brandon Wu
7. Tyler Duncan
8. Trevor Cone
9. Austin Eckroat
10. Dylan Wu
11. _

Proximity: 150-175 — Over 27% of the approach shots come from 150-175 at Sedgefield. This is a massive percentage from one bucket and 7% more than tour average from this range. 

1. Adam Schenk
2. Aaron Rai
3. Brandon Wu
4. Alex Smalley
5. Taylor Pendrith
6. Russell Knox
7. Sam Burns
8. Ben Martin
9. Doug Ghim
10. Michael Kim
11. _

Par 4: 400-450 — Eight of the Eighteen holes at Sedgefield come from this range. While this is somewhat of an overlap of the previous 150-175 proximity statistic, players could attack these short holes in a different manner by hitting to their favorite approach yardage.

1. Denny McCarthy
2. Aaron Rai
3. Brendon Todd
4. Doug Ghim
5. Thomas Detry
6. Sam Burns
7. Russell Henley
8. Adam Hadwin
9. Callum Tarren
10. Beau Hossler
11. _

Three-Putt Avoidance — The downfall of many good ball-striking rounds at Sedgefield has been three putting on these Bermuda greens. The average three putts per round here is 12% higher than tour average.

1. Brian Stuard
2. Adam Schenk
3. Sam Burns
4. Greyson Sigg
5. Ryan Moore
6. Adam Svensson
7. Taylor Pendrith
8. Beau Hossler
9. Justin Lower
10. Patrick Rodgers
11. _

Bermuda Putting – The players will be back on Bermuda for the first time in a while. Here are the best Bermuda putters

1. Brian Gay
2. Ben Taylor
3. Sam Burns
4. Andrew Putnam
5. Matt Kuchar
6. Harry Hall
7. Ben Griffin
8. Thomas Detry
9. Sam Ryder
10. Alex Noren
11. _

Correlated Courses – Since adding this to the model a few weeks ago, I’ve been surprised at how many players that land on this list of strokes gained at similar courses actually perform well. It’s basically strokes gained at the top five or six courses that correlate to Sedgefield CC the strongest.

1. Kevin Streelman
2. Justin Thomas
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Adam Scott
5. Shane Lowry
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Sungjae Im
8. Chez Reavie
9. JT Poston
10. Eric Cole
11. _

Course History – The most strokes gained, on average, at Sedgefield CC

1. Webb Simpson
2. Sungjae Im
3. Russell Henley
4. Billy Horschel
5. Si Woo Kim
6. Ryan Moore
7. Zach Johnson
8. Rory Sabbatini
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Denny McCarthy
11. _

Peaking and Fading

One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.

Peaking

1. Doug Ghim
2. Adam Schenk
3. Zac Blair
4. Adam Hadwin
5. Austin Eckroat
6. _

Fading

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2. Ben Martin
3. Michael Kim
4. Ryan Palmer
5. Keith Mitchell
6. _

Statistical Top 50

1	Hideki Matsuyama	Hideki’s decent putting stats this season haven’t been weighing down his overall ranking. He’s top ten in short term course fit, long term course fit, form, course history, and correlated course history. Putting at 43 is just good enough to keep him in the top spot.
2	Denny McCarthy	Denny rates out first in the Par 4 yardage bucket, and 16th or better in course history, correlated courses, and putting.
3	Kevin Streelman	The man of Streel is first in correlated course history. He popped last week and ended up being a pretty solid play. He’s also a peaking player having moved up to 17th in short term course form over the last 50 rounds.
4	Aaron Rai	The only thing holding Rai back right now is putting. There’s no denying he’s been poor, but everything else is top tier from his driving accuracy, approach game, and correlated course history.
5	Shane Lowry	Lowry checks in with top ten short term course form, long term course form, and correlated course history.
6	Brendon Todd	The Todd Father doesn’t really pop anywhere but bermuda putting, but he’s very consistent across the board in course fit, form, and correlated course history.
7	Sungjae Im	Im hasn’t been playing great, however he is boosted heavily by his course form and correlated course form
8	Chris Kirk	Kirk is actually a fading player ranking first in long term course fit but playing worse as the season has gone on, there’s no reason to think he can’t find some form on a course that fits his game for a few rounds this week, however.
9	Adam Hadwin	Hadwin is a peaking player jumping up to 11 in short term course fit. He’s also 17th in correlated courses. At his odds I think he’s a great outright bet this week.
10	Mark Hubbard	Hubbard rates out 5th in approach, 11th in long term course form, and 35th at Sedgefield.
11	Eric Cole
12	Ryan Moore
13	Alex Smalley
14	Ryan Armour
15	Chez Reavie
16	Russell Henley
17	Cam Davis
18	Lucas Glover
19	Stephan Jaeger
20	Adam Schenk
21	Sam Burns
22	Kevin Yu
23	Doug Ghim
24	Christiaan Bezuidenhout
25	Keith Mitchell
26	Si Woo Kim
27	Ludvig Aberg
28	JT Poston
29	Ben Griffin
30	Adam Scott
31	Taylor Pendrith
32	Sam Ryder
33	Davis Riley
34	Andrew Putnam
35	Akshay Bhatia
36	Ben An
37	Brandon Wu
38	David Lipsky
39	Austin Eckroat
40	Jason Dufner
41	Vincent Norrman
42	Billy Horschel
43	Alex Noren
44	Justin Lower
45	Nicolai Hojgaard
46	Carson Young
47	Zac Blair
48	Dylan Wu
49	Ryan Palmer
50	Russell Knox