My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
There are a lot of DP World Tour players at the Scottish Open who won’t pop in the model due to limited rounds. With that said I will place any players manually based on what rounds they do have recorded. The Renaissance Club model is made up of strong approach stats, greens in regulation, the scorecard yardages, avoiding three putts, and good drives gained.
This Week’s Stats
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. At The Renaissance Club, approach is vital as it is every week. However, it’s a bit more important since difficulty off the tee is down, so guys need to gain strokes with their second shot.
- Scottie Scheffler
- Mark Hubbard
- Xander Schauffele
- Gary Woodland
- Aaron Rai
- Alex Smalley
- Justin Rose
- Rickie Fowler
- Tom Kim
- Antoine Rozner
- _
Greens in Regulation — Greens in regulation is a vital stat because it tells you who is giving themself birdie looks. Historically, this has been an approach and putting course, meaning you’ll need to hit greens and score. Outside of last years -7 from winner Xander Schauffele, there have been some low score winners at the Renaissance Club.
- Scottie Scheffler
- Corey Conners
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Wyndham Clark
- Ross Fisher
- Vincent Norman
- Rickie Fowler
- Alex Smalley
- Tommy Fleetwood
- _
Good Drives Gained—- The previous winners at The Renaissance Club haven’t gained strokes off the tee or been super accurate. That said, I always like to incorporate some element of off the tee, especially with four Par 5s. Good Drives is my favorite because it takes into account drives that result in good approach shots, not just drives that land in the fairway.
- Matthew NeSmith
- Ross Fisher
- Scottie Scheffler
- Michael Kim
- Austin Eckroat
- Corey Conners
- Lee Hodges
- Xander Schauffele
- Patrick Cantlay
- Aaron Rai
- _
Par 3 Scoring: 200+ – There are five par 3 holes this week and three of them are 200+ in yardage.
- Jordan Smith
- Rory McIlroy
- Cam Young
- Patrick Cantlay
- Ben An
- Romain Langasque
- Shubhankar Sharma
- JT Poston
- Thomas Detry
- Luke Donald
- _
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 — The plurality of holes come from this 450-500 yard range. With a fairly unknown course this week in terms of strokes gained. Much of the model is going to come from the scorecard.
- Xander Schauffele
- Ryan Fox
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Nick Taylor
- Wyndham Clark
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Sungjae Im
- Adam Scott
- Austin Eckroat
- _
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600— With four Par 5s and this tournament most likely going to play fairly easy, scoring on the Par 5s will be crucial. I think you’re going to have to come away with at least two or three birdies each day to contend.
- Rickie Fowler
- Wyndham Clark
- Mark Hubbard
- Scottie Scheffler
- Jordan Spieth
- Aaron Rai
- Harry Higgs
- Ludvig Aberg
- Andrew Putnam
- Sam Burns
- _
Recent Form — We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rickie Fowler
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Aaron Rai
- Min Woo Lee
- Wyndham Clark
- Brian Harman
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Eric Cole
Three-Putt Avoidance — Putting is always important, it’s just not always predictable. The greens at the Scottish are unique in that they are often slow. It may take somewhat of an adjustment for players to get the ball rolling correctly. I think avoiding three putts is the key putting stat this week..
- Eric Cole
- Haotong Li
- Patrick Cantlay
- Beau Hossler
- Taylor Montgomery
- Victor Perez
- Davis Thompson
- David Lingmerth
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Seamus Power
- _
Strokes Gained: Correlated Courses — This stat takes into account courses with similar attributes to The Renaissance Club and which players have gained the most strokes on average at those courses.
- Ben An
- Justin Rose
- Justin Thomas
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Rickie Fowler
- Adam Scott
- Shane Lowry
- Luke Donald
- Eric Cole
- Kurt Kitayama
- _
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
- Brian Harman
- Austin Eckroat
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Justin Rose
- Kevin Streelman
- _
Fading
- Max Homa
- Sungjae Im
- CT Pan
- Joseph Bramlett
- Ben Martin
- _
Statistical Modeling Top 50
| 1. Rickie Fowler | Fowler is obviously on one in terms of form and he also rates out well on correlated courses, Par 5s, GIRs, and approach. |
| 2. Rory McIlroy | Rory Is tops in recent form and also top five in Par 3 scoring, GIRs, and the Par 4 range. |
| 3. Wyndham Clark | Coming off a US Open victory, Clark rates out sixth or better in both Par 5 and Par 4 distances as well as GIRs gained. He’s 14th in strokes gained on correlated courses, too. |
| 4. Tyrrell Hatton | Hatton rates out top ten in recent form and both short term and long term course fit. It’s obviously enticing to see him ranked so highly given the Brit/Links connection. |
| 5. Tommy Fleetwood | Same thing here for Tommy. I like that he’s popped in this model, especially that he is fourth on correlated courses and fourth in form. Add in the UK factor and he’s also very enticing in the betting and fantasy markets. |
| 6. Shane Lowry | Lowry rates out top ten in both long and short term course fit. He’s seventh in correlated courses |
| 7. Scottie Scheffler | Scottie rates out first in short term course fit, long term course fit, and recent form. |
| 8. Justin Rose | Rosey is second in correlated course strokes gained and rates out well in approach and the Par 4 distances. |
| 9. Patrick Cantlay | Cantlay rates out top eight or better in the Par 3 range, good drives, and avoiding three putts. He’s seventh overall in short term course fit, he’s only real blemish is barely cracking the top 50 in correlated course strokes gained |
| 10. Xander Schauffele | The defending champ rates out top eight in both short and long term course fit by checking in at eighth or better in approach, Par 4 distances, GIRs, and good drives. |
| 11. Dylan Wu | |
| 12. Eric Cole | |
| 13. Nick Taylor | |
| 14. Tom Kim | |
| 15. Gary Woodland | |
| 16. Lee Hodges | |
| 17. Brian Harman | |
| 18. Corey Conners | |
| 19. CT Pan | |
| 20. Aaron Rai | |
| 21. Mark Hubbard | |
| 22. Viktor Hovland | |
| 23. Matt Fitzpatrick | |
| 24. Sungjae Im | |
| 25. Jordan Spieth | |
| 26. Alex Smalley | |
| 27. Hurly Long | |
| 28. Andrew Putnam | |
| 29. Cam Young | |
| 30. Jordan Smith | |
| 31. Doug Ghim | |
| 32. Ben An | |
| 33. Adam Scot | |
| 34. JJ Spaun | |
| 35. Luke List | |
| 36. Adri Arnaus | |
| 37. Kevin Streelman | |
| 38. Justin Thomas | |
| 39. Austin Eckroat | |
| 40. Max Homa | |
| 41. Daniel Gavins | |
| 42. Brandon Wu | |
| 43. Yannik Paul | |
| 44. Christiaan Bezuidenhout | |
| 45. Antoine Rozner | |
| 46. JT Poston | |
| 47. Keith Mitchell | |
| 48. Ross Fisher | |
| 49. Ludvig Aberg | |
| 50. Sahith Theegala |