2023 John Deere Classic – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

First-Timers in the Hunt

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With 13 players within three shots of the lead, four of the top five on the leaderboard have yet to win a PGA Tour event. While Brendon Todd putted his way to the top of the leaderboard on Saturday, he holds a slim one-shot lead on a trio of players who are hungry to raise a trophy for the first time as PGA Tour members. Both Denny McCarthy and Adam Schenk have had close calls over the past few months with each finishing runner-up along with multiple top-fives on the leaderboard. Alex Smalley hasn’t sniffed the top yet, but his 9-under round on Saturday has him in prime position to win as well. An exciting Sunday is sure to ensue as there are numerous other big-name contenders who are only three shots back including Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, and J.T. Poston.

Last year’s winner, Poston (+2800) and Chris Kirk (+2200) are the best values to win. Each, however, has their own issues. Most of Poston’s success this week has come with the putter and he has lost over 2.2 strokes on approach. While Kirk’s ball-striking has been excellent, he is the one of the worst “Sunday” players in the mix, losing 0.55 strokes in his last 24 final rounds. Even with pre-tournament outrights on Schenk, Smalley and Young, I think McCarthy (+400) rides his putter and the experiences learned from his past battle scars to his first PGA Tour win.

Weather Forecast – Silvis, Illinois

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.