2023 Travelers Championship - DraftKings Picks

*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate.

2023 Travelers Championship – Strategy

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TPC River Highlands is a classical, tree-lined par-70 Pete Dye design where shot-shaping is almost required and where players are encouraged to get creative and utilize every club in their bag. It is very scoreable yet will challenge players at the same time thanks to its penal rough, challenging pin placements on small tiered greens, and subtle changes in direction. Players who are accurate with their position off the tee, who can separate from the field with their wedges and short irons, and who can get on a roll with the putter have the best chance for success.

Along with my concentrated player pool of golfers who have good course history at TPC River Highlands, and who fit the characteristics described above, I am fading a couple of big names at the top of the board. On a course that demands elite wedge play and consistent putting, I will be completely fading Rory McIlroy. The fact that he might not be present mentally after another taxing major also contributes to my reasoning.

As for Jon Rahm, I will only be playing him with my core plays and will be underweight compared to the field. He can’t use his elite OTT game to his advantage here, and he is a far stronger player with his long irons than with his short irons. On a course where past history is the seventh most predictive, he has finishes of 37th, 25th and 64th. He also finished 37th in my model on other courses similar to TPC River Highlands. Other players that I am fading for a variety of reasons (some of which I went into more detail on the DFS show) include Tommy Fleetwood, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im.

The two main players in the upper tier that will be a centerpiece in many of my lineups and who I will be mixing and matching with the rest of my player pool are Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay. Let’s not forget that this is just as much prize money on the line this week as there was at the U.S. Open. I think Scheffler will be plenty motivated to win in Connecticut and if the putts start to drop, he could boat-race the field by five shots. He has 17 straight T12s or better and is in the midst of a historically elite tee-to-green run. He is a must-play in all types of contests.

After backdooring his way into another top-15 – this time at a major – Cantlay continues to play just well enough to stay on my outright radar. His OTT game has been spectacular, gaining at least 2.5 strokes in nine straight events. He also has the best course history in the upper tier with five straight top 15s at a place where past performance is correlated to future success. As much as it seems he doesn’t show up some weeks, he has four T10s in the past four months and has finished outside of the top 30 just twice in the past 12 months which includes nine T4 finishes.

In the $9.0K and above range the other three players that I will be overweight on compared to the field are Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa and Matt Fitzpatrick. My favorite value plays, including the rest of my player pool is listed in the charts at the bottom.

2023 Travelers Championship – Narratives and Important Metrics

Unique Model Weights

SG: Elevated Events
SG: Strong Fields
SG: Short Courses

With such a variety of playing styles represented in past champions at TPC River Highlands, trying to figure out who has the best chance to content at this tournament is always a challenge. Not only do we see all types of players near the top of the leaderboard in years past, but it is also the fourth-shortest course on Tour. These facts allow almost every single player in the field who can find a hot putter to have a fighting chance. Adding to the unpredictability of the week is that this is also an elevated event with most of the elite players on Tour in attendance.

A variety of splits were built into the model this week to try to identify the players with the highest chance for success, both in upside and in making the cut. First, a group of comp courses was used that is similar to TPC River Highlands in course length, fairway structure (tree-lined with 8 doglegs), and overall scoring and birdie rate.

Off the tee (OTT) weighs in as more important this week than the average Tour course. The penalty for missing fairways is very high. Players who can add distance to accuracy will have nothing but wedges into greens that are known for having tricky pin positions. One of the main splits in the OTT model for the week is past SG: OTT performance on the other “Less Than Driver” courses that are also short in length. While some players will choose a bomb and gauge approach and gain strokes off the tee that way, others will gain strokes by staying out of the rough and choosing to position themselves by clubbing down.

A few other stats that had higher weights this week are proximity from 125-175 yards and par-4 scoring from 400-450 yards. On such a short course players will have short irons and wedges in their hands a majority of the time on approach. Players who have a high birdie or better rate from that range should be targeted. Some of these players include Scottie Scheffler, Denny McCarthy, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, and Viktor Hovland. With nine holes under 445 yards, players that are strong in that range of par-4 holes should have an advantage. Scheffler, McCarthy, Cantlay, Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day and Brian Harman rate among the best on those.

Finally, with so many low individual scores posted over the years, players who can put themselves in position on approach to make birdie putts can separate themselves from the field. Scoring opportunities from 15 feet and less are weighted high in the Scoring model this week. Overall, players who can generate these opportunities, have great course history, and who are in form with their ball-striking will have the best chance to rise up the leaderboard.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC River Highlands

*In order of importance

SG: Approach
SG: OTT (Short Courses)
Par 4: 0-450
Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Proximity 125-175
SG: ARG
SG: TPC River Highlands
Opportunities Gained
Good Drive %

Weather Forecast – Cromwell, Connecticut

Travelers Championship – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.