2023 Travelers Championship – Betting Preview

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After a unique U.S. Open setup in Los Angeles that saw longshot Wyndham Clark win his first major, the Tour heads back to familiar territory and a much more energized environment for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. One of the most favored tournaments by players and caddies, the event attracts a strong field each year, and its huge crowds make it the second-most attended Tour event behind only the Waste Management Open.

TPC River Highlands is a classical, tree-lined par-70 Pete Dye design where shot-shaping is almost required and where players are encouraged to get creative and utilize every club in their bag. It is very scoreable yet will challenge players at the same time thanks to its penal rough, challenging pin placements on small tiered greens, and subtle changes in direction. Players who are accurate with their position off the tee, who can separate from the field with their wedges and short irons, and who can get on a roll with the putter have the best chance for success. 2019 winner, Chez Reavie summed up the course quite succinctly. “You can shape it both ways off the tee; hit every club in your bag from longer irons to short irons. It’s just a test of all your shots.”

The average winning score over the past 12 events has been 15-under par and has included a wide range of golfers. There has, however, been a recent trend of more quality, upper-tier players winning this event. The average odds of the last eight winners is +3300 and includes elite players such as Bubba Watson (twice), Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, and last year’s champion, Xander Schauffele. Thanks to its tremendous finishing stretch of holes, it also almost always seems to deliver a climactic ending with 14 of the last 19 events being decided by one shot or less.

The Field

Due to its “Elevated Event” status and $20 million purse, this year’s Travelers Championship will have the strongest field in its storied history. Each of the eligible top-10 players in the OWGR will be in attendance with the exception of Jordan Spieth. And other than the still-injured Will Zalatoris, every other top-40 golfer is playing except for Tyrrell Hatton, Sam Burns, and Justin Rose.

The headliners include Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Max Homa. It will be another intriguing week to see how these elite players respond to flying across the country to play the week directly after an intense U.S. Open major tournament.

2023 Travelers Championship – Betting Narratives and Strategies

Unique Model Weights

  • SG: Elevated Events
  • SG: Strong Fields
  • SG: Short Courses

With such a variety of playing styles represented in past champions at TPC River Highlands, handicapping this tournament is always a challenge. Not only do we see all types of players near the top of the leaderboard in years past, but it is also the fourth-shortest course on Tour. These facts allow almost every single player in the field who can find a hot putter to have a fighting chance. Adding to the unpredictability of the week is that this is also an elevated event with most of the elite players on Tour in attendance.

A variety of splits were built into the model this week to try to identify the players with the highest chance for success, both in upside and in making the cut. First, a group of comp courses was used that is similar to TPC River Highlands in course length, fairway structure (tree-lined with 8 doglegs), and overall scoring and birdie rate.

Off the tee (OTT) weighs in as more important this week than the average Tour course. The penalty for missing fairways is very high. Players who can add distance to accuracy will have nothing but wedges into greens that are known for having tricky pin positions. One of the main splits in the OTT model for the week is past SG: OTT performance on the other “Less Than Driver” courses that are also short in length. While some players will choose a bomb and gauge approach and gain strokes off the tee that way, others will gain strokes by staying out of the rough and choosing to position themselves by clubbing down.

While some are focusing on longshots this week, I am targeting players somewhat higher on the board. The average odds of the past eight winners is only +3300. Part of the reason for that is the overall strength of the field here is typically higher than average. Many of the outrights I selected on Monday started out in the mid-tier/longshot range but are closing with much lower odds and supplying excellent closing line value. This includes Tom Kim moving from +6000 to +3500, Russell Henley from +7000 to +4000, Hideki Matsuyama from +6600 to +4500, Shane Lowry from +10000 to +6600, Brian Harman from +12500 to +8000 and Denny McCarthy from +10000 to +7000. While outright winners have been slumping a bit so far this year, one of my best skills is finding early value in the outright market.

This event does have the 7th strongest predictive value in course history and that will be one of the main sticking points for me this week. When analyzing the top of the board, Cantlay’s sparkling history at TPC River Highlands separates him from the other stud golfers in the upper tier and is my reason for taking him at +1200.

A few other stats that had higher weights this week are proximity from 125-175 yards and par-4 scoring from 400-450 yards. On such a short course players will have short irons and wedges in their hands a majority of the time on approach. Players who have a high birdie or better rate from that range should be targeted. Some of these players include Scottie Scheffler, Denny McCarthy, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, and Viktor Hovland. With nine holes under 445 yards, players that are strong in that range of par-4 holes should have an advantage. Scheffler, McCarthy, Cantlay, Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day and Brian Harman rate among the best on those.

Finally, with so many low individual scores posted over the years, players who can put themselves in position on approach to make birdie putts can separate themselves from the field. Scoring opportunities from 15 feet and less are weighted high in the Scoring model this week. Overall, players who can generate these opportunities, have great course history, and who are in form with their ball-striking will have the best chance to rise up the leaderboard.

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC River Highlands

*In order of importance

  • SG: Approach
  • SG: OTT (Short Courses)
  • Par 4: 0-450
  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • Proximity 125-175
  • SG: ARG
  • SG: TPC River Highlands
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Good Drive %

Weather Forecast – Cromwell, Connecticut

Travelers Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Patrick Cantlay +1200

Well…rinse, repeat. Here we are again, teeth grinding, clicking on Cantlay. After backdooring his way into another top-15 – this time at a major – he continues to play just well enough to stay on my outright radar. His OTT game has been spectacular, gaining at least 2.5 strokes in nine straight events. He also has the best course history in the upper tier with five straight top 15s at a place where past performance is correlated to future success. As much as it seems he doesn’t show up some weeks, he has four T10s in the past four months and has finished outside of the top 30 just twice in the past 12 months which includes nine T4 finishes.

(2u) BetMGM

Tom Kim +6000 (currently +3500)

After gaining 7.5 strokes on approach at last week’s U.S. Open, combined with his best putting event in eight months, it appears that Kim might be starting to peak again. With TPC River Highlands favoring that combination, Kim was an automatic first click at +6000. He won at Sedgefield, which is a very similar course that favors “less than driver” off the tee along with precise iron-play towards tricky pin positions.

(0.40u) FanDuel

Russell Henley +7000 (currently +4000)

TPC River Highlands shapes up to be perhaps the best course fit on the PGA Tour for Henley. Not only has he gained the 10th most strokes here out of any other player since 2015, but he ranks first in the entire field in SG on similar short, positional courses. He has gained at least three strokes on approach in six straight events, including a combined 13.5 at the U.S. Open and at the Memorial. He also has six top-20 finishes in his last seven events.

(0.60u) FanDuel

Hideki Matsuyama +6600 (currently +4500)

The honest truth is that I had no intention of betting Matsuyama this week until I saw that PointsBet had a 66-1 on him and had to do a double-take. After investigating his stat profile I was pleasantly surprised to see just how stellar his approach game has been recently. Not only did he gain 8.6 strokes at the U.S. Open, but has gained a combined 28.7 strokes in his last seven events. And while his putting was absolutely putrid at the last two majors, he has actually gained with the flatstick in seven of his last 11 events. While he has actually never played at TPC River Highlands, that might be a good thing as first-timers have had success here and he also ranks 18th in the field on other similar shorter courses.

(0.36u) PointsBet

Denny McCarthy +10000 (currently +7000)

McCarthy probably doesn’t have the same raw skill set/power OTT that Wyndham Clark has, but the improvements to his game (specifically on approach) have him on a similar trajectory. He just needs that first breakthrough win which he almost acquired at the Memorial. In the 11 elevated events thus far, he ranks 8th best out of everyone at 1.63 SG per round. One of the most improved iron players on Tour, he has gained over three strokes on approach in three of his last seven tournaments. When odds first opened, he was the best longshot value on the board at 100-1.

(0.24u) FanDuel

Other Outright Bets

  • Sahith Theegala +9000 (0.26u) – FanDuel (currently +7000)
  • Shane Lowry +10000 (0.24u) – PointsBet (currently +6600)
  • Brian Harman +12500 (0.19u) – BetRivers (currently +8000)

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20 – all DraftKings

  • Viktor Hovland +105 (1u)
  • Tony Finau +150 (1u)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +165 (1u)

Top 30 – all FanDuel

  • Russell Henley +100 (1u)
  • Hideki Matsuyama +125 (1u)
  • Tom Kim +155 (1u)

Top 40

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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images