It’s not uncommon for us to see a less-than-stellar field the week after a major, but that’s not the case in this world of designated events. The top eight players in the Official World Golf Ranking, and 40 of the top 50, are headed to Cromwell, Connecticut, for this week’s Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands.
TPC River Highlands is the last Pete Dye-designed track of the 2023 season and is the fourth-shortest course on Tour this season. The narrow Par-70 track will play just beyond 6,800 yards from the tips, and the final stretch of holes, 15-18, wrap around a lake and are your standard Dye-designed risk/reward holes, often leading to an exciting finish. TPC River Highlands features tree-lined fairways and small greens, emphasizing accuracy, both off the tee and on approach. Over the past few seasons, it featured the shortest average approach shot distance of any course on Tour at 151 yards. Premier ball striking mixed with a hot putter on these hybrid Poa and bentgrass greens can turn this into a birdie fest, and a quick glance at past leaderboards proves that any style can win at The Travelers.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting nuggets about TPC River Highlands:
It is a par-70 course, the 4th shortest on Tour at only 6,852 yards. Immaculately maintained, it has numerous subtleties that add to the layout’s strategy and challenge. The routing of the holes demands certain shot types and shapes. This type of course and design has allowed for a variety of champions over the years. Past winners include bombers and shorter fairway finders, Tour veterans and course “first-timers,” and a blend of favorites and longshots. Any style of play can have success at TPC River Highlands, and that is one of the reasons so many high-quality players return year after year.
The hole layout at TPC River Highlands is typical for a standard par-70 course with only two par-5s and four par-3s. It has the shortest combination of par 4s/par 5s on Tour at an average of only 432 yards per hole. The character of this course lies in its 12 par-4s, 10 of which measure under 445 yards. Players who have success in shorter par-4s and struggle with par-5s will be licking their chops this week.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the subscriber-only Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s Travelers Championship Targets
Collin Morikawa
I’ve been surprised to see Collin Morikawa skip this tournament the past two seasons, but batting behind a major is a difficult spot on the calendar for some. Now earmarked as a designated event with the subsequent spike in purse size, Morikawa will be making his first start at TPC River Highlands since 2020.
Morikawa entered last week with concerns surrounding his health, primarily his back after spasms caused him to withdraw from the Memorial on the weekend, but he pieced together a solid showing at LACC. Shocking no one, his irons were dialed in, picking up where he left off at the Memorial, gaining over 1.5 strokes per round on approach. Even without the exceptional three rounds of approach numbers that he posted at Jack’s place, Morikawa ranks third in this field in approach over the past 24 and 36 rounds.
He feasts on short Par 4s, is incredibly accurate off the tee, and will give himself as many makeable birdie looks as anyone in the field. To win, he’ll need to convert, but I’m encouraged by his strong putting performance at LACC. Also, while these greens aren’t traditional west coast Poa, they are a hybrid version, with Poa being Morikawa’s preferred putting surface.
Tom Kim
Skill stacking is a strategy often utilized when making daily fantasy lineups, but I believe it’s a +ev way to build out a betting card as well. While TPC River Highlands might not be the perfect place to execute this strategy because it’s lent itself to a wide variety of winners over the years, I think there’s a skill set that is better than others when looking to pinpoint a winner at a Pete Dye course. For me, it’s shotmaking, often through the lens of approach play, and accuracy off the tee because you need to avoid the rough. Off the tee, you not only be on the fairway but be in a position to give yourself the correct angle into the greens.
When he’s going right, like he was at LACC over the weekend, the best compliment I can pay Tom Kim at this stage of his career is that he’s a poor man’s Collin Morikawa. Kim had an excellent weekend at the U.S. Open, finishing T8 overall, and he ranked fourth in SG: APP for the week. His putting spiked, which is uncommon, but something that can roll over to this week in Connecticut.
Shane Lowry
Shane Lowry has only played this event once over the past six years, but he’s fared well at Pete Dye tracks in recent years, with multiple top 10 finishes at TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, and TPC Louisana. Lowry has carded three T20s in his past four starts, including a T20 at last week’s U.S. Open, where he gained strokes throughout the bag. After a rocky start to the year due to a cold putter, Lowry has now gained strokes putting in three of his past four events.
This play was more about price than anything else, though. Shane Lowry is one of the top 20 golfers in this field and is capable of winning anywhere, no matter the strength of the field. There’s no scenario when he should be available at 100/1, though PointsBet disagreed on Monday morning. This is the benefit of our subscriber-only Discord, folks.
Brian Harman
Brian Harman jumped out to a quick start at LACC last week, shooting -5 on Thursday’s opening round, but faded on the weekend. He found the fairway on 75% of his drives, and despite his lack of distance, is among the top 20 in this week’s field in good drive% and fairways gained.
Harman is clearly a course horse at this stage of his career, and his track record at Pete Dye events is strong, particularly at the Travelers. He sandwiched a 2020 missed cut between four T8 or better finishes in his past five trips here. His T7 at Harbour Town back in April came after a string of missed cuts, so I worry less about his recent form, and I’m more inclined to value his fit and history here than I would be for most other golfers. A finishing position bet is a wiser use of your funds, but if you can still find an outright price north of 100/1, I’d sprinkle some (small) pizza money on it.
Austin Eckroat
Austin Eckroat is on one right now, and I’m riding the wave. After showing up one spot AHEAD of Wyndham Clark in my custom stat model last week, Eckroat’s T10 finish at the U.S. Open cashed a +250 T40 bet for our subscribers and me last week, his fourth straight T30 or better finish. Over his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 6.2 strokes per event tee-to-green and 2.8 strokes per event on approach.
With accuracy off the tee at a premium, Eckroat’s ability to find fairways with slightly above-average driving distance is a highly coveted skill this week. Over the past 24 rounds played, he’s second in this field in good drive% and third in total driving. His best recent finishes, a T2 at the Byron Nelson and a solo fifth at Corales, have come in spots where scores can get low. I’m going to continue to bet on Eckroat in the finishing position markets, but he’s playing well enough for me to consider him as an outright selection when his odds are this long.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Hideki Matsuyama and Denny McCarthy – T40 (+285)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These golfers were on the short list of outright options for me, but I wanted to note them here. They’ll all likely be finishing position bets for me as well.
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