2023 Memorial – DraftKings Picks

*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate.

2023 Memorial – Strategy

f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b

With a star-studded field teeing off at “Jack’s Place”, played on one of the more challenging courses that golfers will face all year, there are viable paths to a both a balanced and a “Stars and Scrubs” approach this week.

With the $8K range loaded with tons of win equity and high upside golfers including Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Corey Conners, and Shane Lowry a safer, balanced build (especially for smaller-sized contests) offers a high floor with just enough upside.

As for the “Stars and Scrubs” approach, the upper-tier is loaded and, based on course history, it is very hard to dismiss any of them. Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa each have stellar track records here while both Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele have also had past success in Dublin and are also in great current form. The three golfers in the value range that I love the most this week, and which definitely help in fitting at least two of these elite players in your lineup, are Ryan Fox ($7.1K), Adam Svensson ($6.9K), and Aaron Rai ($6.5K).

2023 Memorial – Narratives and Important Metrics

Unique Model Weights

SG: Elevated Events
SG: Strong Fields
SG: Difficult Scoring Courses
SG: Long Courses

Coming on the heels of the Schwab Challenge last week and the PGA Championship two weeks ago, the Memorial has a common theme with both – that being the importance of the approach game into these ultra-firm, smaller-than-average greens. I know it sounds like it gets repeated for almost every event, but this week Strokes Gained Approach really matters. Muirfield Village is the 7th toughest course on Tour to gain strokes in that area. Strokes Gained Approach and Around the Green are the two metrics I have focused on with my player selection as ball-strikers and short-game wizards have contended with high frequency on past leaderboards.

This course demands precision on every stroke, yet birdie opportunities can be gained if players can find the right quadrant on the greens. The top-5 on the leaderboard in 2021 gained an average of 4.8 shots on approach. Last year, not a single player in the top-13 gained less than 2.1 strokes on approach. Long-iron play will be paramount with 49% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards. This is well above the Tour average of 44%. The average approach distance is one of the highest anywhere at 191 yards compared to the average of 172 yards.

Another key factor this week that players have been heavily quoted on is leaving your putts below the hole in the proper area of the green. With the greens sloping so severely in spots, there are many locations where the ball will gather to the hole. Much of this is learned by course experience which is another reason to target players who have been battle-tested at Muirfield. Learning where you can and can’t miss will be paramount to success. Finally, players with a higher ball apex who can land their ball softer on these greens will be crucial for a higher GIR%.

The other stat-category that I am focused on is around-the-green play. Because greens in regulation are only hit at a 57% clip, plenty of approaches end up in the 4-inch rough. Scrambling is only successful around these green complexes 54% of the time making it the toughest course to gain strokes in that area.

Much of the scoring difficulty at Muirfield comes mostly from the touch and creativity golfers need to display with their short game. SG: ARG is actually the 4th most correlated stat to having success here. In 2021, the top-6 players gained at least two strokes in SG: ARG. Last year’s winner, Billy Horschel, was a magician around the greens gaining 5.2 strokes. And it’s not just the 4-inch rough that gives players trouble, it’s the 68 bunkers that surround these greens, many of which are massive and deep.

Muirfield Village has always had a “major” feel to it thanks to the strength of the field and the tough “U.S. Open” type conditions. With the exception of a three-year stretch from 2015-2017, it has been the elite talents in the game that have won this event. With that in mind, we should also be targeting players with past success both at difficult-scoring courses and with strong fields. With nine “elevated” events thus far this year, my model also incorporates those results as conditions are very similar to what golfers will face at Muirfield Village this week.

Most Important Stats For Success at Muirfield Village GC

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Scrambling (Rough)
Good Drive % (Rough)
SG: Par 5
Proximity 175+ yds
Bogey Avoidance
Total Driving
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
SG: T2G
SG: Course History + Other Difficult T2G Courses

Weather Forecast – Dublin, Ohio

The Memorial – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.