2023 Charles Schwab Challenge - DraftKings Picks

*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate.

2023 Charles Schwab Classic – Strategy

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From my viewpoint, the main question relates to how high both Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth’s ownership will get before teeing off on Thursday. As of Wednesday evening, I have Scheffler around 27% and Spieth around 18%. I’m keeping it really simple this week with my 150 lineups by stacking both players together. Combined with all the values in the upper $6K and lower $7K range, playing two-high priced golfers is a very viable option this week, and is something I will be investing heavily in.

We all know how good Scheffler is, but while Spieth still might have some lingering effects of a wrist injury, he looked close to 100% last week, and I believe he is a near-lock for a top-10 finish. Minus his missed cut at the Wells Fargo, he is currently on one of the best ball-striking runs of his career.

The “King of Colonial” returns for the 12th consecutive year where he has finished outside of the top 14 only one time. While he is playing with a slight wrist injury, his ball striking was superb at last week’s PGA Championship. And at his press conference today he confirmed that he is fine moving forward. His last eight starts at Colonial rival any other player’s positive history at any other course. He is gaining 2.54 strokes on the field per round along with 1.10 putting. While he has lost six strokes with his short game in his last two events, he has gained an astounding 31.9 strokes with his short game at Colonial CC in his last four starts.

With his ownership coming in at a reasonable 18%, and being only the sixth most expensive player, he makes for a great play to either start your lineup or to combine with Scottie Scheffler for a dynamic 1-2 punch. There are plenty of high-upside players in the lower $7K range to fill out your lineup including this group of my favorites – Eric Cole, Justin Suh, Sam Stevens, Sepp Straka, Davis Riley, Akshay Bhatia, J.T. Poston, and Ben Griffin.

Also, with this being an Invitational field with only 120 golfers we can be more aggressive with some of our value picks as a higher percentage of players will make it through the cut. This makes a “Stars and Scrubs” approach even more viable.

2023 Charles Schwab Classic – Narratives and Important Metrics

Unique Model Weights

SG: Tough Par 70 Courses
SG: Less Than Driver Courses
SG: Texas

With Colonial Country Club being a regular stop on Tour for over 70 years, we have a large amount of course data to work with this week. As far as the type of players we should be targeting this week based on the data, it all starts with keeping your ball in the fairway and with the proper approach angle into these small greens. Shorter, accurate players off the tee who are consistent putters have had the most success here in the past. Former winners like Kevin Na, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Kevin Kisner highlight this fact.

Experience at this course is also more important this week than usual. At Colonial, previous course history has the 9th highest correlation to success. When analyzing the past 20 winners here, the average age was 35 years old along with an average of 6 prior appearances before their victory. For the most part, I am also fading any debutants who have never played at Colonial.

It all starts off the tee at Colonial CC. Ben Hogan once said that a “straight ball will get you in more trouble at Colonial than any course I know.” With so many holes twisting in different directions, players who can shape the ball both ways off the tee will be rewarded. With a majority of the doglegs turning right to left, golfers who draw the ball will have an edge this week.

Because of the heavy volume of trees lining the fairways, along with the unpredictable 3″ Bermuda rough, it becomes a positional-based course where most players will club down off the tee and take less than driver. Distance off the tee is seven yards lower here than the average course. Those who find the rough or try to cut across the doglegs and fail will have to deal with plenty of tree-blocked approach shots. Fairway-finders playing “target golf” rule the day here at Colonial.

All that being said, it is important to note that some of the “bomber” types like Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak have demonstrated over the last couple of years that lines can be taken over the doglegs which allows for the longer hitters to hit over the top of the trees. While few winners over the last decade have ranked highly for the week off the tee, the 2021 winner, Kokrak, let the field OTT with 6.2 strokes gained.

Great iron players should also be targeted this week. 55% of approach shots come between 100-175 yards. I have also isolated two ranges of holes in the model this week. 36% of the holes on the course are between 400-450 yards. Also, each of the par-3s play at over 190 yards. Players with past success in these ranges will have a higher ranking in the Hole Breakdown sub-model and will be high on my betting list for this week.

The most important component to success at Colonial is simply hitting greens in regulation. Last year, it ranked as the ninth toughest course in which to gain strokes on approach. Players ranking high in Good Drive % combined with past approach performance on other small greens are ones that should rise up the leaderboard.

With only two par-5s on the course, I will be fading numerous players who tend to thrive on courses with four par-5s. K.H. Lee, Vincent Norrman, and Joseph Bramlett are three examples of golfers in this field who typically score much higher than average on those types of holes. Any advantages certain players have related to distance, par-5 scoring, and approaches over 200 yards will be mitigated this week, and thus will rank lower in my model.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Charles Schwab Challenge

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Fairways Gained
Good Drive %
SG: Par 4
Proximity 100-175 yds
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Less Than Driver Courses
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Scrambling
Birdie or Better %

Weather Forecast – Fort Worth, Texas

Charles Schwab Challenge – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.