After a scintillating PGA Championship in New York that saw Brooks Koepka win his fifth career major, the Tour heads back south to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge which is played at the legendary Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth.
Though the event’s name has changed numerous times, Colonial CC has hosted this tournament since 1946, making it the longest-running event on the PGA Tour held at the same location. From its beginning, the tournament has seen the most illustrious names in golf among its champions, including Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, and Tom Watson. Colonial is one of those rare gems that has stood the test of time, challenging the world’s best golfers year after year.
Colonial CC is a challenging tree-lined shot-makers course with tight fairways, numerous doglegs, and small greens. It is a positional course that places a premium on accuracy off the tee and on approach. Ball-strikers with past success on “less than driver” courses, who have the ability to be creative and shape their shots, and who can get hot with the putter on the bentgrass greens will have an advantage. Jordan Spieth, perhaps, summed up Colonial best by saying, “Fit it into tight windows, hit fairways, and control the ball on the green.”
With an average winning score of 14-under over the last dozen years, the list of recent past champions here is full of quality ball-strikers who can roll the rock including Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, and Zach Johnson. The last two winners, Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak took a more aggressive route off the tee by hitting driver at a 72% clip as compared to the field average of 58%. One thing both have in common with the previous group – both were among the best putters on Tour.
The Field
The week after a major notwithstanding, along with the fact that it is not an “elevated” event, there is a sneaky-strong field at this week’s edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge with nine of the top 20 golfers in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) in attendance and 26 of the top 43 that are eligible in the top 50 of the rankings.
The field is headlined by world No. 1, and local Dallas resident, Scottie Scheffler who is coming off of a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship. Colonial’s most consistent contender, and another local, Jordan Spieth returns for the 11th consecutive year where he has ten top-14 finishes which includes a win in 2016. Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, and defending champion Sam Burns round out the list of elite players teeing it up this week. Other past champions in the field are Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson, Chris Kirk, and Rory Sabbatini.
With the Charles Schwab Challenge being an invitational event, there will only be 120 players in the field with the top-65 and ties making it through the cut-line. One of the storylines to follow is how golfers perform this week who were either in contention or who struggled mightily at last week’s PGA Championship.
2023 Charles Schwab Classic – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Tough Par 70 Courses
- SG: Less Than Driver Courses
- SG: Texas
With Colonial Country Club being a regular stop on Tour for over 70 years, we have a large amount of course data to work with this week. As far as the type of players we should be targeting this week based on the data, it all starts with keeping your ball in the fairway and with the proper approach angle into these small greens. Shorter, accurate players off the tee who are consistent putters have had the most success here in the past. Former winners like Kevin Na, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Kevin Kisner highlight this fact.
Experience at this course is also more important this week than usual. At Colonial, previous course history has the 9th highest correlation to success. When analyzing the past 20 winners here, the average age was 35 years old along with an average of 6 prior appearances before their victory. For the most part, I am also fading any debutants who have never played at Colonial.
It all starts off the tee at Colonial CC. Ben Hogan once said that a “straight ball will get you in more trouble at Colonial than any course I know.” With so many holes twisting in different directions, players who can shape the ball both ways off the tee will be rewarded. With a majority of the doglegs turning right to left, golfers who draw the ball will have an edge this week.
Because of the heavy volume of trees lining the fairways, along with the unpredictable 3″ Bermuda rough, it becomes a positional-based course where most players will club down off the tee and take less than driver. Distance off the tee is seven yards lower here than the average course. Those who find the rough or try to cut across the doglegs and fail will have to deal with plenty of tree-blocked approach shots. Fairway-finders playing “target golf” rule the day here at Colonial.
All that being said, it is important to note that some of the “bomber” types like Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak have demonstrated over the last couple of years that lines can be taken over the doglegs which allows for the longer hitters to hit over the top of the trees. While few winners over the last decade have ranked highly for the week off the tee, the 2021 winner, Kokrak, let the field OTT with 6.2 strokes gained.
Great iron players should also be targeted this week. 55% of approach shots come between 100-175 yards. I have also isolated two ranges of holes in the model this week. 36% of the holes on the course are between 400-450 yards. Also, each of the par-3s play at over 190 yards. Players with past success in these ranges will have a higher ranking in the Hole Breakdown sub-model and will be high on my betting list for this week.
The most important component to success at Colonial is simply hitting greens in regulation. Last year, it ranked as the ninth toughest course in which to gain strokes on approach. Players ranking high in Good Drive % combined with past approach performance on other small greens are ones that should rise up the leaderboard.
With only two par-5s on the course, I will be fading numerous players who tend to thrive on courses with four par-5s. K.H. Lee, Vincent Norrman, and Joseph Bramlett are three examples of golfers in this field who typically score much higher than average on those types of holes. Any advantages certain players have related to distance, par-5 scoring, and approaches over 200 yards will be mitigated this week, and thus will rank lower in my model.
While Jordan Spieth still might have some lingering effects of a wrist injury, he looked close to 100% last week, and I believe he is a near-lock for a top-10 finish. Minus his missed cut at the Wells Fargo, he is currently on one of the best ball-striking runs of his career. While he has lost six strokes with his short game in his last two events, he has gained an astounding 31.9 strokes with his short game at Colonial CC in his last four starts.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Charles Schwab Challenge
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Fairways Gained
- Good Drive %
- SG: Par 4
- Proximity 100-175 yds
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Less Than Driver Courses
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Scrambling
- Birdie or Better %
Weather Forecast – Fort Worth, Texas
The Charles Schwab Challenge Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Jordan Spieth +1600
The “King of Colonial” returns for the 12th consecutive year where he has finished outside of the top 14 only one time. While he is playing with a slight wrist injury, his ball striking was superb at last week’s PGA Championship. And at his press conference today he confirmed that he is fine moving forward. His last eight starts at Colonial rival any other player’s positive history at any other course. He is gaining 2.54 strokes on the field per round along with 1.10 putting. While he has lost six strokes with his short game in his last two events, he has gained an astounding 31.9 strokes with his short game at Colonial CC in his last four starts.
(1.5u) DraftKings
Collin Morikawa +1800 (currently +1600)
Out of all the elite players on Tour who are lacking a recent win, Morikawa might be the most motivated of them all. The good news is that this course fits him perfectly. With his lack of distance mitigated here at Colonial, his elite accuracy both off the tee and with his mid-irons should allow him to separate from the field. In his three starts here he is gaining an amazing 1.68 strokes on approach per round. He also gained strokes putting at last week’s PGA Championship, and bentgrass is his second-best surface. Also in his favor, it should also be noted that Colonial is one of the easiest “short-game” courses on Tour.
(1.33u) PointsBet
Max Homa +2500
I initially wasn’t on Homa at the start of the week, but this number has drifted too much. He has a pair of T27s here and has been grinding on the range to get his irons back in shape. Like Morikawa, I love targeting players who not only discuss their motivation to win but who also wear their emotions on their sleeves. He brings as much win equity into this event as anyone not named “Scheffler”.
(0.96u) FanDuel
Cam Davis +6600 (currently +4000)
After his fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship last week, I was shocked to see Davis open at such high odds. While he has the reputation of being a longer hitter off the tee, he actually excels much more on smaller, precision-based, “less than driver” courses. Not only does he have a seventh-place finish here last year, but he is the ninth-best player in my model on comparable courses to Colonial. Even with an awful five-event stretch where he played through an ailment, he is still gaining 0.82 strokes per round over the past year and has the upside to win this week.
(0.36u) PointsBet
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Jordan Spieth +170 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Victor Hovland -115 (1.5u)
- Tony Finau -115 (1.3u)
- Collin Morikawa -110 (1.2u)
- Sungjae Im +100 (1u)
- Tommy Fleetwood +145 (1u)
- Justin Rose +150 (1u)
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Russell Henley +100 (1u)
- Chris Kirk +110 (1u)
- Cameron Davis +110 (1u)
- Brian Harman +138 (1u)
Top 40 – all FanDuel
- Brendon Todd +105 (1u)
- Kurt Kitayama +110 (1u)
- Eric Cole +138 (1u)
- Davis Riley +160 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images