My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
This Week’s Stats
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. No matter the course, the second shot will almost always be the most important. Given the heavy bunkering around the green, sticking your approach will avoid having to get up and down from the sand.
| Tony Finau |
| Xander Schauffele |
| Collin Morikawa |
| Jordan Spieth |
| Rickie Fowler |
| Max Homa |
| Wyndham Clark |
| Rory McIlroy |
| Viktor Hovland |
| Gary Woodland |
Opportunities Gained — This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better).
| Cameron Young |
| Rory McIlroy |
| Luke List |
| Davis Riley |
| Ben Martin |
| Viktor Hovland |
| Ryan Gerard |
| Xander Schauffele |
| Wyndham Clark |
| Samuel Stevens |
Proximity from 200+ —
| Patrick Cantlay |
| Gary Woodland |
| Adam Svensson |
| Robby Shelton |
| Michael Thompson |
| Tony Finau |
| Kurt Kitayama |
| Cameron Young |
| Viktor Hovland |
| Brent Grant |
Proximity: 175-200 –
| Taylor Pendrith |
| Tony Finau |
| Will Gordon |
| Chez Reavie |
| Lucas Glover |
| Gary Woodland |
| Justin Thomas |
| Nate Lashley |
| Cameron Young |
| Trey Mullinax |
Par 4s 450-500 yards – There are six long par fours at Quail Hollow and four of them rank inside the top 5 most difficult holes. Being able to navigate this length par 4 will be crucial.
| Patrick Cantlay |
| Max Homa |
| Justin Thomas |
| Viktor Hovland |
| Jason Day |
| Sam Ryder |
| Hayden Buckley |
| Taylor Pendrith |
| Sepp Straka |
| Ben An |
Driving Distance — Off the tee and driving distance is an important piece at Quail Hollow. According to strokes gained data, tee game is almost as important as approach and that’s something we don’t often see.
| Rory McIlroy |
| Cameron Young |
| Cameron Champ |
| Trevor Cone |
| Keith Mitchell |
| Ben An |
| Will Gordon |
| Ryan Brehem |
| Luke List |
| Joseph Bramlett |
Recent Form — Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it’s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.
| Jordan Spieth |
| Tony Finau |
| Patrick Rodgers |
| Xander Schauffele |
| Patrick Cantlay |
| Samuel Stevens |
| Sungjae Im |
| Rickie Fowler |
| Harry Hall |
| Wyndham Clark |
Sand Saves — There is a strong correlation with high finishers in this event and their ability to get up and down from the sand during the tournament. Winners of the event have gained three times as many strokes on sand saves than top 5 finishers.
| Ben Griffin |
| Jordan Spieth |
| Matt Kuchar |
| Danny Willett |
| Andrew Putnam |
| Si Woo Kim |
| SH Kim |
| Keith Mitchell |
| Adam Schenk |
| Denny McCarthy |
Three Putt Avoidance – The scoring relative to par is difficult at Quail Hollow. The key is not going to be dropping as many birdies as possible like it was last week in Mexico. You have to navigate the course intelligently, avoiding big numbers and three putts on many holes.
| Eric Cole |
| Sam Ryder |
| Chris Kirk |
| Ryan Armour |
| Keegan Bradley |
| Nate Lashley |
| Nicolas Echavarria |
| Mackenzie Hughes |
| Nick Watney |
| Andrew Putnam |
Course History — The players with the most strokes gained per round at Quail Hollow
| Rory McIlory |
| Joel Dahmen |
| Nick Watney |
| Jason Day |
| Keith Mitchell |
| Viktor Hovland |
| Emiliano Grillo |
| Matt Wallace |
| Rickie Fowler |
| Webb Simpson |
SG: Long/Difficult Courses — Certain players pop when the conditions are tough and the course is long. With a couple of long Par 5s and several long Par 4s, players need length off the tee combined with a solid approach game from distance as well.
| Rory McIlroy |
| Viktor Hovland |
| Xander Schauffele |
| Justin Thomas |
| Jason Day |
| Matt Kuchar |
| Tommy Fleetwood |
| Jordan Spieth |
| Collin Morikawa |
| Corey Conners |
Peaking and Fading – One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
| Samuel Stevens |
| Gary Woodland |
| Taylor Moore |
| Chez Reavie |
| Patrick Rodgers |
Fading
| Callum Tarren |
| Max Homa |
| Kurt Kitayama |
| Will Gordon |
| Tom Kim |
Stat Model Top 50 Rankings
| 1. Tony Finau | Fresh off the victory in Mexico, Finau rates out as the top dog thanks to top 6 rankings in approach, both key proximity distances, and overall form. He checks in at 15 on long/difficult courses too. |
| 2. Viktor Hovland | Vik is a nice bet this week as he rates out well on long/difficult courses (2nd) and is 6th in Quail Hollow strokes gained per round. Course wise, he’s top ten in strokes gained off the tee and approach, Par 4s 450-500, 200+ proximity, and opportunities gained. |
| 3. Rory McIlroy | Rory and Wells Fargo have become synonymous in my brain. He rates out first in both Quail Hollow form and long/difficult course form. He rates out top ten in approach and off the tee, driving distance, and opportunities gained |
| 4. Xander Schauffele | Xander is currently 4th in form and 3rd on long/difficult courses. His approach stats are dynamite coming into the week, but does get dinged on his short game work over the last few weeks. |
| 5. Collin Morikawa | Seems to have lost his winning ways, but still rates out really well. He’s 3rd in apporach and 15th off the tee as well as 12th from the 175-200 yard range. He’s also 8th on long/difficult tracks. |
| 6. Patrick Cantlay | Cantlay fits the course well, ranking 8th in the short term and 5th long term. He’s also 4th in overall recent form, but he does lack in the Quail Hollow form category, missing the cut in his only appearance at this specific tournament. |
| 7. Samuel Stevens | A real sleeper popping up in the top ten here, Stevens is currently 6th in form and rates out 2nd in course fit in the short term. It may be difficult for a first-timer to win at Quail Hollow, but he could make some noise on DraftKings or in the place market. |
| 8. Gary Woodland | Woodland rates out similar to Xander. He has all the ball-striking metrics locked down. He’s top ten in approach, both proximity distances, opportunities gained, and the off the tee stats. He has faltered around the green and putting recently which is definitely required this week |
| 9. Jordan Spieth | Spieth’s short game could be the key here. His statistical course fit is trending in the right direction over the last 50 rounds, he’s first in recent form, and 8th on long/difficult courses. |
| 10. Rickie Fowler | Rickie has been dialed with the irons rating out top ten in both approach and opportunities gained. He’s also inside the top ten in current form and Quail Hollow form. |
| 11. Wyndham Clark | |
| 12. Justin Thomas | Fourth on long/difficult tracks |
| 13. Cameron Young | Ball-striking metrics and distance a big plus for Cam this week. |
| 14. Tyrell Hatton | |
| 15. Patrick Rodgers | One of the top peaking players, has three top 20s in his last three starts. |
| 16. Tommy Fleetwood | |
| 17. Taylor Moore | |
| 18. Sungjae Im | Gets dinged because of recent play, but rates out well on long/difficult tracks, recent form, and long term course fit |
| 19. Shane Lowry | |
| 20. Cameron Davis | |
| 21. Si Woo Kim | |
| 22. Max Homa | |
| 23. Keegan Bradley | |
| 24. Emiliano Grillo | |
| 25. Davis Riley | |
| 26. Eric Cole | |
| 27. Matthew Fitzpatrick | |
| 28. Ben Martin | |
| 29. Chez Reavie | |
| 30. Hayden Buckley | |
| 31. Jason Day | |
| 32. Corey Conners | |
| 33. Nick Hardy | |
| 34. Joseph Bramlett | |
| 35. Alejandro Tosti | |
| 36. Matt Kuchar | |
| 37. Dylan Wu | |
| 38. Nate Lashley | |
| 39. Stephan Jaeger | |
| 40. Mark Hubbard | |
| 41. Keith Mitchell | |
| 42. Piercson Coody | |
| 43. Akshay Bhatia | |
| 44. Tom Kim | |
| 45. Ben An | |
| 46. Sam Ryder | |
| 47. Austin Smotherman | |
| 48. Luke List | |
| 49. Michael Kim | |
| 50. Denny McCarthy |