After Tony Finau outlasted Jon Rahm and converted his third straight 54-hole lead into another business-like victory at the Mexico Open, the PGA Tour shifts back to the States to North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship and a much stronger field in what is already the eighth designated event of the year.
Just southeast of downtown Charlotte, Quail Hollow Club has hosted a PGA Tour event since 2003. Last year’s event was moved to TPC Potomac in Maryland to prepare the course for the Presidents Cup. It is a classical parkland course that is a favorite among players. Along with immaculate conditions played on a scenic rolling terrain, it’s known as one of the most pleasant walks in golf. The course has a natural flow to it as players step off of one green and the next tee box is just yards away.
A championship-level layout, Quail Hollow is famous for the prestigious events which have been held here including, recently, the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup. It is known for its arduous final three holes known as the “Green Mile” which is the toughest closing stretch on Tour and literally plays a mile long.
As with any course that has hosted major events, every facet of a golfer’s game will be tested this week. As recent past winners demonstrate, including Rory McIlroy (three times), Max Homa, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler, distance off the tee is especially advantageous this week. Other important traits that matter include total driving, long-iron approach play from 175+ yards, and being able to scramble for pars on some of the toughest green complexes that players will face all year.
The Field
While this will most likely be the strongest Wells Fargo field in its history, it will be the weakest designated event field this far as ten of the eligible 43 players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings are taking the week off and bypassing the opportunity of competing for a $20 million purse. This includes the top two players in the world, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. Others who are joining them to “rest” this week include Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Russell Henley, Justin Rose, and Lucas Herbert. Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, and Aaron Wise are also out due to injury or other reasons.
Rory McIlroy leads the group of favorites as he returns to action for the first time since missing the cut at the Masters. He is a three-time winner at Quail Hollow, including in 2021 which was the last time this event was held at this course. Last year’s Wells Fargo champion held at TPC Potomac, Max Homa, also won this event at Quail Hollow in 2019 for his first career PGA victory.
2023 Wells Fargo Championship – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Strong Fields
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Difficult Scoring Conditions
- SG: Driver Heavy Course
While past course history has been spotty here recently with no tournaments being held in 2017, 2020, and 2022, I lumped performance at Quail Hollow with other comparable courses for the “Comp Courses” section of the model this week. Whether it’s Bay Hill or Torrey Pines or a few others, the key theme relates to the unique splits listed above – long, difficult-scoring courses where gaining strokes off the tee with your driver is paramount.
Similar to last week’s Mexico Open, “bombers” off the tee who are also well-rounded in other areas fit the bill this week. The Charlotte area has had a good deal of precipitation over the last couple of weeks, meaning the fairways will be very soft and Carry Distance even more important. This field is littered with players who fit the bomber narrative including some of my favorites: Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Joseph Bramlett and Wyndham Clark.
With an average driving distance of 300 yards, combined with the course’s length, lack of hazards, and minimal rough, the course sets up perfectly for being driver-heavy off the tee and gives “bombers” a clear advantage. 84% of all drives measured at least 280 yards which is one of the highest rates on Tour.
Shorter drivers who have accurate long-iron games can still compete here but their path to success is much more difficult. While fairway accuracy is one of the lowest on Tour at only 54%, it has proven to not matter. The last four winners have averaged 314 yards off the tee with none of them finishing in the top-40 in accuracy for the week. In fact, when McIlroy won in 2021 he finished second in driving distance and shockingly finished dead last out of 156 golfers in fairways gained.
Along with inaccurate drives not being punished as much as at other venues, those with longer distance off the tee will have shorter approach shots into the firm greens. This will allow them to benefit more from those shots than at other courses where holding the green is not as difficult. In summary, Quail Hollow presents more opportunities to play aggressively off the tee and will allow those players a better chance to separate from opponents that are shorter hitters.
Even with all the emphasis on being long off the tee, gaining strokes on approach will always be vital on a course that plays this tough. On approach, Quail Hollow ranks as the 11th toughest ShotLink course on which to gain strokes. The average Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate over the past three events is 60.5% which is well below the Tour average of 65.8%.
Much of the difficulty is due to the aforementioned firmness of the greens combined with 55% of approaches coming from 175+ yards. Long approach shots that don’t have the necessary precision and trajectory could bounce ten yards off the green and leave difficult recovery shots. Thanks to many of the tricky pin placements which make the greens even tougher, proximity to the hole is one of the furthest on Tour at 42.7 feet.
This brings us to short-game skills. Around the green, Quail Hollow rates as slightly tougher than average when compared to other courses. Because of the difficult green complexes, scrambling from the rough and from the short grass is between 2-4% tougher here. There are some shaved runoff areas and false fronts that players will have to contend with that can make chipping difficult. Players will miss greens here, meaning there will be more shots from around the green. While not emphasizing it too heavily in my model, the slope and speed on the greens is enough for me to consider crossing off players who are very weak in this area.
The same can be said for putting. The greens at Quail Hollow are among the most challenging aspects of the course. Overall it ranks as the 6th toughest venue in which to gain strokes putting. Longer putts will be even more difficult as it ranks as the second toughest course for putts outside of 15 feet. The 3-putt rate is one of the highest on Tour at 3.95%.
While tee-to-green play is much more important than putting this week, going cold on the greens will quickly knock a player out of contention. Each of the last three winners here – McIlroy, Homa, and Day – gained more strokes putting than any other category.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Wells Fargo Championship
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Driving Distance
- Proximity 175+
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Long/Difficult Courses
- SG: Putting
- Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance
- Total Driving
- 3-Putt Avoidance
Weather Forecast – Charlotte, North Carolina
The Wells Fargo Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Max Homa +2500 (currently +3000)
Homa’s odds have been lengthening and I have no idea why. His history at Quail Hollow and other long driver-heavy courses like Riviera is elite. Not only did he pick up his first-ever Tour win here in 2019, but he went undefeated in last year’s Presidents Cup matches. While his recent form has been lacking, he noted in his press conference that he turned a corner and got back on track with his swing at the Zurich Classic and has plenty of good vibes here at this course.
(0.96u) BetRivers
Cameron Young +2500 (currently +2000)
From every angle to be considered, Young appears to be the archetype for “course fit” here at Quail Hollow. Behind McIlroy, he presents the second-best combination of distance and long-iron proximity. He has also played some of his best golf on major-like courses in touch-scoring conditions. This includes a 7th place finish at the Masters last month, a 2nd at last year’s Open Championship, and a 3rd place finish at last year’s PGA Championship.
(0.96u) FanDuel
Sungjae Im +2900
Always one of the most consistent players on Tour, Im ranks in the top 25 in every model category except approach. After losing in that area in five of seven events to start the year, he has now gained on approach in three straight which resulted in a 6th place finish at the PLAYERS, 16th at the Masters, and 7th at the RBC Heritage. He also carried Keith Mitchell to a 6th place finish at the Zurich Classic. He is trending up right now and is due for a win.
(0.82u) FanDuel
Sam Burns +3500 (currently +3400)
There’s not much chatter around Burns this week even though he has won five times in the last two years and has the upside to notch another victory on a course that fits him well. He ranks 13th off the tee and is the 2nd-best putter in my model this week. At the same odds as Rickie Fowler who hasn’t won in years, I’ll take the value with Burns.
(0.68u) PointsBet
Keith Mitchell +7500
Similar to Young, this is a perfect course for Mitchell. Not only is he one of the most elite players off the tee, he has finished 3rd and 8th here in the last two events. He ranks first on Tour this year in Total Driving which measures both length and accuracy. If he can dial in his approach game, expect him to be in contention come Sunday.
(0.32u) PointsBet
Wyndham Clark +10000 (currently +7500)
Clark opening at 100-1 odds was the biggest shocker on the board on Monday morning. Over the last three months, he ranks as the 13th-best player in this field with eight consecutive top-35 finishes including three top-10s. Always long off the tee, he has taken his approach game to another level, ranking ninth in the world over that time span. And with his short game always one of the most consistent on Tour, every piece of the puzzle is coming together for Clark to seize his first career PGA win.
(0.24u) FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Xander Schauffele -115 (1.2u)
- Jordan Spieth +105 (1u)
- Cameron Young +115 (1u)
- Justin Thomas +120 (1u)
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Sam Burns -110 (1.1u)
- Tom Kim +160 (1u)
- Wyndham Clark +190 (1u)
- Keith Mitchell +110 (1u)
Top 40
- Keegan Bradley +105 (1u) – FanDuel
- Ben An +175 (1u) – FanDuel
- Adam Scott +175 (1u) – FanDuel
- Joseph Bramlett +205 (1u) – BetRivers
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images