The PGA Tour heads southeast a couple of hours down the road toward the Atlantic coast for its traditional post-Masters event, the RBC Heritage. Always one of the most beloved events by players, in past years it has presented more of a relaxed vibe compared to the pressure cooker that is the Masters. But this year, the pressure will be taken up a notch as the best field that has ever gathered here will participate in one of the Tour’s new designated events.
Situated at the Sea Pines Resort on the southwest corner of Hilton Head Island, Harbour Town Golf Links has hosted the annual RBC Heritage on the PGA Tour which is held each April following the Masters tournament. From the pervasive palmetto trees and Spanish moss-draped oaks to the beautiful island scenery that Hilton Head provides, Sea Pines is one of the most popular golf resorts in the nation.
With tight fairways, numerous doglegs, and sharp angles, it presents a stark contrast for players coming over from Augusta National and its broad wide-open expanses. Harbour Town is a course where finesse and shot-making are prioritized over length and power. Few other courses on Tour require such a premium on accuracy off the tee and precise iron shots into minuscule greens.
The list of past winners and contenders is filled with elite wedge players with stellar short games: Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson, Jim Furyk, Shane Lowry, Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald, J.T. Poston – the list of golfers with success here who fit that exact mold would take (much like a Patrick Cantlay putt) forever to list because it just keeps going. Speaking of “Patty Ice”, he is perhaps the biggest “course horse” this week with finishes of 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 3rd again at Harbour Town since 2017.
While it may change this year with all of the elite names in attendance, most of the past contenders are not “stars” of the game. The biggest factor for this being the case is that when greatness off the tee isn’t required then almost everyone in the field has a chance to contend.
The Field
The best RBC Heritage field ever will assemble this week in Hilton Head. Every single eligible player in the top 100 except for Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Aaron Wise, and Alex Noren will be in attendance. The top two players in the world, Masters champion Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, both have limited history at Harbour Town. This will only be Rahm’s second appearance while Scheffler will be making his debut.
Coming off a 4th place finish at Augusta National, an admittedly tired Jordan Spieth returns to the RBC Heritage to defend his title from a year ago. Previous Heritage winners in the field include five-time Heritage winner Davis Love III, three-time champion Stewart Cink, Satoshi Kodaira, C.T. Pan, and Webb Simpson.
Most elite golfers rarely play the week after a major. But with $20 million on the line, including a $3.6 million share to the winner, along with PIP (Player Impact Program) requirements, it’s back to the grind with no time to decompress from the tension of last week’s Masters. Whether it’s Russell Henley coming off a career-best performance in a major or Justin Thomas failing to meet expectations once again, It will be fascinating to see how the big names respond after last week.
2023 RBC Heritage – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Strong Fields
- SG: Coastal Courses/Winds 15+ mph
- SG: Week After Major
- SG: Less Than Driver Courses
- SG: Comp Courses
This week definitely has a different feel to it because we’ve never had an event with this strong of a field (even stronger than the Masters) after a major. Everyone is the golf world can usually can relax after the Masters and ease into the Harbour Town beach vibes, but not this week. This field is loaded, and because of the course, any type of player can come out on top. So back to the grind for everyone, well except for Rory McIlroy.
Along with it being post-Masters, it is definitely a unique week strategy-wise because off the tee (OTT) and distance mean little thanks to players taking less than driver on a majority of the holes. And who are typically the best players OTT? Usually the elite tier. So the fact that players will all be hitting to the same spots on the fairway, along with the fact that it is one of the easiest courses around the green, turns this week into an approach plus putting week with perhaps the strongest emphasis all year on approach play.
As mentioned, Harbour Town is a course where finesse and shot-making are prioritized over length and power. Distance is pretty much irrelevant. This takes away one of the advantages of some of the top-tier players such as Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, who have elite power and length. It’s a course that should level the playing field and mitigate any distinct advantage from bombers.
Evidence of this are the surprise longshot winners over the years who are shorter more positional hitters – Satoshi Kodaira, CT Pan, Wesley Bryan, Webb Simpson. It is the main reason I am fading the very top of the board for most bets this week and am instead dropping down to second-tier of players for outrights and finish position bets. Patrick Cantlay is the one exception to this. He is perhaps the biggest “course horse” this week with finishes of 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 3rd again at Harbour Town since 2017. I happily jumped all over him at +1650 to win when DraftKings added an odds boost on Wednesday morning.
Even driving accuracy is unique here. Players have commented on their ball sitting in the fairway yet having tree branches still hanging down in front of them. 2021’s winner, Stewart Cink, ranked 57th in Fairways Gained. SG: OTT has one of the lowest weights in my final model as there will be for the entire year. It’s not as much about finding the fairway as it is hitting your tee shot to the proper spot on the fairway to give yourself the best angle to the green on approach. Good Drive % is a key stat this week and shows player success in getting the ball onto the greens with their approach shot even if they miss the fairway.
To put it simply, this week is basically target-to-target golf. With the second smallest greens on Tour, it will come down to approach play, scrambling and who can get hot with the putter So ball-strikers and players consistent around the greens should be the focus for the RBC Heritage.
Another interesting angle is how players perform the week directly after playing in a major. I did some research and compiled the performances of all 44 golfers who making the turnaround and playing at Harbour Town this week. Many of the elite names are right at the top, including Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Tony Finau. There were also a couple of lesser-tier players that ranked high like Brian Harman and Billy Horschel.
Another focus for me this week will be analyzing past performance on other courses comparable to Harbour Town. These would be courses like Colonial, Sedgefield, and Pebble Beach – layouts that are shorter and positional in nature that don’t require drivers or distance off-the-tee. And finally, as with all coastal courses, the wind looks like it will have an effect on play throughout. In the model, I have included the rankings for Strokes Gained on Coastal Courses.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling
- Proximity 125-200 yds
- SG: Comp Courses
- SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
- Par 5 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Total (Last 3 Months)
- Bogey Avoidance
Hilton Head Island, South Carolina – Weather Forecast
The RBC Heritage Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Patrick Cantlay +1400
Trying to predict outright tournament winners in a sport as volatile as golf is as fickle as it gets. Thus, it is only on rare occasions that I feel actual confidence in predicting the winner. My “Patrick Cantlay” selection this week is one of those times. Not only do the other two favorites, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have little to no history here at Harbour Town, but both will be unable to use their massive advantage off the tee to their benefit this week. Patrick Cantlay, on the other hand, has three top-7s in his last four starts here. Over his past 16 rounds, he’s gaining an average of over two strokes ball-striking which is second-best to only Scottie Scheffler. Combine that with his course knowledge, and if he can just make the short putts I feel very confident he is wearing the Tartan Plaid Jacket on Sunday.
(1.45u) DraftKings
Collin Morikawa +2200 (currently +1800)
With gaining strokes on approach into tiny greens being the main area players can separate themselves from the field this week, why wouldn’t I have the best iron player in the world all over my betting card? As Morikawa himself said, “It’s a course that I think really suits my game. A lot of tee-to-green, a lot of approach shots that are kind of in my wheelhouse.” With the improvements he has made with his short game (+0.25 per round) over the last three months, combined with the ease of these green complexes, Morikawa’s game fits this course perhaps better than anyone.
(1.09u) BetRivers
Justin Thomas +3300 (currently +2800)
At one of his highest outright odds in recent memory, it’s back to the well for Thomas this week. Though his irons haven’t been as sharp as Morikawa’s of late, the course fits him almost as well. He finished 8th here back in 2020 when the field was almost as strong as it will be this week. With Thomas struggling at the moment, this is a play on the number more than anything.
(0.72u) BetRivers
Other Outright Selections
- Tyrrell Hatton +4500 (0.53u) – BetMGM
- Si Woo Kim +9000 (0.26u) – BetRivers (currently +7000)
- Adam Svensson +25000 (0.09u) – BetRivers (currently +20000)
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Patrick Cantlay -150 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 20
- Collin Morikawa +110 (1.1u) – BetRivers
- Viktor Hovland +115 (1u) – DraftKings
- Xander Schauffele +125 (1u) – BetRivers
- Justin Thomas +138 (1u) – BetRivers
- Max Homa +155 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30
Top 40 – all DraftKings
- Si Woo Kim +100 (1.1u)
- Justin Rose +110 (1u)
- Tommy Fleetwood +110 (1u)
- Brendon Todd +190 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images