Betting Preview – 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

The PGA Tour heads to the “Lone Star State” for the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event as the best golfers in the world take a week off from stroke play and battle it out in head-to-head competition. For the sixth year since 2016, the tournament will be held at Austin Country Club on the outskirts of the Texas capital.

This challenging Pete Dye course features uneven lies, forced carries, menacing pot bunkers, and a mix of risk/reward holes that challenge the best golfers in the world.

Match play is a form of competition where a golfer plays directly against an opponent in a head-to-head match-up. You win a hole by completing it in the fewest number of strokes, and you win a match when you are winning by more holes than remain to be played. Match play is all about playing the opponent and taking risks or playing conservatively based on the situation. It rewards aggressive play more than in stroke competition.

The field is officially set with 64 of the top 70 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) committed. The star-studded field includes 50 PGA Tour winners with a collective 227 wins to their credit. The final seeds for the 64-player field were determined by their OWGR as of Monday, March 22. 

Golfers not playing in this year’s event for a number of reasons include Sam Burns, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English, and Phil Mickelson. 

Keep in mind, the tournament runs from Wednesday through Sunday with the winner having played seven matches in five days.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Bracket

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Winners/Odds

Match Play Format

The players are split into 16 groups of four players (each group has a player seeded 1–16, 17–32, 33–48, 49–64). Each group plays in a round-robin format over Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. One point is awarded for a win, and one-half point for a tie, with only the group winner qualifying to the next round. If two or more players are tied at the top of the group, there is a sudden death stroke play tie-breaker played to decide who progresses. The second phase is played as a knockout tournament, with the round of 16 and quarter-finals played on Saturday, and the semi-finals, third-place playoff, and final played on Sunday.

  • 5 of the last 7 winners had won an event in one of their previous five starts
  • The last 12 winners had at least one top-10 finish within their last four starts
  • 6 of the last 7 winners had reached the “Round of 8” in a previous Dell Match play event
  • The last 11 winners had played in at least three previous Dell Match play events
  • The last 11 winners had at least two previous career wins

Top 10 Most Important Stats

  • SG: APP
  • Fairways Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Scrambling
  • Good Drive%
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis courses)
  • Proximity 175+ yards
  • Birdie or Better%
  • SG: Total on Tough Scoring/Average Field Courses

Austin, Texas Weather Forecast (March 23-27)

Player Selection

Including players who rank highly in each of the model stats this week, there are numerous angles to consider for betting on golfers whether for outrights, group winners, or head-to-head matchups.

First of all, because this is not a stroke-play event, there is no Strokes Gained data to analyze, thus limiting our ability to project success based on the normal models. And because of the grueling pressure-packed format that includes players battling just to make it out of their initial group, there is a tremendous amount of volatility in this event. This was exemplified in the past two tournaments with both Kevin Kisner and Billy Horschel winning as 80-1 longshots. The top seeds typically don’t even make it past day three. We see a wide array of favorites, mid-range, and longshot winners here. 

There are, however, still plenty of quality metrics we can model this week. Many of these are centered around stats that fit the course at Austin Country Club. An example of this is Fairways Gained. Even though we don’t have Driving Accuracy stats, because of all the bunkers, hazards, and tricky lies outside of the fairway, we can make the assumption Fairways Gained is an important stat this week. Birdie-makers, scramblers, and consistent putters are also types of players who typically have more success in match play events.

Other non-stat splits included in the model are “Comp Courses” which are mostly other shorter, positional Pete Dye tracks, past match play history, and past history at Austin Country Club.

Career Match Play/Austin CC Records and Hole Differential +/-

The winning trends for this event also show that current form matters. Each of the last 12 winners has had at least one top-10 finish in their last four starts. Local Texas players who have more familiarity with the course, such as Scottie Scheffler, also have an advantage.

Left-handed golfers also seem to have an edge here as Bubba Watson, Brian Harman, and Robert MacIntyre have each had success in this event. 

I will also be focusing on strong putters. The ability to consistently sink short to mid-range putts, especially on these sloping greens, even if just saving par, can put enormous pressure on opponents. Many elite putters have won this event including Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day.

This unique type of event is one in which we can target players by simply using the “eye test” and knowing which players are able to consistently give themselves birdie chances because of their elite ball-striking or who can grind out holes by scrambling to save par.

Finally, I have included SG: Wind in the model as three of the five days are forecasted to see high winds which are typical for Texas, especially this time of year.

Expect the unexpected this week. Match play tournaments are among the most unpredictable events. Per Justin Ray, only 30% of top seeds in each group advance while 24% of the lowest seeds in each group make it into the Sweet 16 section of the event. My advice is to go lighter on the bankroll for outrights and focus more on the daily head-to-head matchups. 

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Final Model

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Patrick Cantlay +2200

When looking for all-around players who are strong in every facet of the game and do not show any weaknesses, Patrick Cantlay is one of the few that jump out. With his mental toughness, he has the perfect demeanor for match play. Even with a small sample size, his 7-3-1 career match play record is good early evidence of what he is capable of in this format. He is one of the most consistent putters in the field, and over the past six months, he is averaging the most strokes gained per round out of anyone in the world.

(0.95u) DraftKings

Xander Schauffele +2400

Along with having one of the easiest quadrants in the bracket, Xander Schauffele is very similar to Cantlay in that he possesses the all-around skills necessary to take down a tournament such as this. His consistent play will keep him in every match, and his ability to sink putts on these tougher green complexes (ranked 11th in the field on difficult greens), along with his stellar tee-to-green play should allow him to make a deep run.

(0.84u) DraftKings

Group Winners

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