Each week, I share the top 20 players in our model’s projections based on win percentage. I also include reactions to the initial results and context as to why certain players landed higher or lower than the market. Here are the results for this week’s Corales Puntacana Championship:
Corales Puntacana Championship Projections Takeaways
- Overall, this is a difficult tournament to project since most of the top golfers are playing in the match play tournament. This will likely lead to a bit more chaos with more variance in these golfers’ game, potentially leading to more value in the outright betting market.
- Obviously, the biggest stance we’re taking is on Nate Lashley, who projects as our number one golfer for the week. After missing four of five cuts to start 2022, Lashley has put together two top-30 performances in his last two tournaments (Puerto Rico Open and Valspar Championship). In these two tournaments, he’s fifth in greens in regulation, which is a strong predictor in our model.
- Another strong stance that the model has is with Jhonattan Vegas, who is first among the field in SG:OTT over his last 24 rounds. Though he’s only 30th in SG:APP, the strong off-the-tee performance is driving his value up.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum, we’re a bit lower than market on Sahith Theegala, who is the third-favorite to win the tournament but all the way down in 14th in our model. Theegala has a pair of top-10 performances over the last month-and-a-half, but his play suggests he might not finish as strongly this week. Specifically, both his SG:OTT and SG:APP are outside of the top 50 players in the field over his last 24 rounds.
Featured Image Credit: PGA Tour