I’m not alone, but this is my favorite event of the year. It’s just different. It means a little bit more, and everyone knows it. The nostalgia of it all, the pomp and circumstance, I love all of it. It’s familiar. It’s your favorite t-shirt fresh out of the dryer. Magnolia Lane. The azaleas. Eldrick on Sunday. I can’t get enough of it.
If you haven’t already done so, please take a moment and check out my Masters Players Guide. It features a quick look at every player in this year’s field, including their recent history at Augusta National, their best career finish here, along with a statistical look at their recent form heading into the week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. I highly suggest checking out his Winning Trends and Putting breakdown as well. Per Ron, here’s an important tidbit about Augusta National:
Augusta National Golf Club is a par-72 course that will stretch out to its longest distance ever for this year’s event at 7,545 yards. At that length, it measures as the 8th longest course in the annual Tour rotation. With a premium on thoughtful, strategic play, every hole offers players bail-out options if the goal is to survive with par. Yet birdie opportunities abound for those who wish to be more aggressive and take on the risk that most holes provide.
Over the past five events, the average score has been 1.14 strokes over par, which ranks as the second-toughest annual course on Tour. Only one of the par-3 holes plays over 180 yards, yet due to the bunkering and difficult green complexes, they rank as the second-toughest group of par-3s, averaging 0.15 strokes over par.
The four par-5s are the holes that bring the most excitement to the course each year. One of the shortest groups of par-5s on Tour averaging only 561 yards per hole, each is reachable in two shots and averages a birdie or better rate at 39.2%. With eagle chances possible on each one, they are the essence of risk-reward holes. This is especially true on the 13th and 15th, where stray approaches will be eaten up by the water hazards.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
This is a unique event in a multitude of ways, but one of the important elements this week is the field. After Aaron Wise’s withdrawal, it’s just 88 golfers, but when you eliminate the amateurs and Champions Tour-eligible past winners, this really is closer to a field of 70-75. The cut line is the top 50 and ties, so take that into consideration when making finishing position or make-the-cut bets.
Weather is going to be an issue, but as of now, I’m not comfortable making sweeping changes to how I’m putting a betting card together. Stay plugged into our Discord for up-to-the-minute weather updates as Thursday morning approaches.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s Masters Betting Targets
Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler put a bow on his dominant early 2022 run with a win here, his fourth and final win last season. His putter let him down over the summer, but when you’ve ascended to this level of professional golf, a 12-15 tournament winless streak gets people’s attention, as crazy as it sounds.
Scheffler is all the way back, defending his win in Phoenix and winning this year’s PLAYERS in dominant fashion, just in time to head back to Augusta to defend his green jacket. As good as Scottie was last year, he’s playing even better right now. His driver is a weapon, gaining 0.63 strokes more per round than he did in 2022 while maintaining his elite approach play, which is now up over 1.04 strokes per round on the field. He’s deservedly the favorite for this year’s event and should be strongly considered despite his increasingly short odds.
Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth’s missed cut here last year was the first of his career, which is impressive considering he was not playing well for sizable chunks of 2019 and 2020. His form entering last year’s event was poor but improved immediately, with Spieth winning the RBC Heritage the following week at Harbour Town.
Spieth’s 2023 form is much better, with three T6 or better finishes in his past six starts. I’m encouraged by his added distance over the past two years, and he’s shown a ceiling in his strokes gained approach metrics that resemble peak Spiethian ranges from 2015-2017. His putting has been up and down throughout the 2023 season, but we’ve seen his wizardry around here too often to be surprised by it at this point.
He’s been too good at the Masters to only have one green jacket, with four T3 or better finishes at Augusta, not counting his 2015 win. Outside of the current Big 3, I like Spieth’s chances this year above the rest.
- To Win: 20/1 on DraftKings
- Top 10: +140 BetMGM
Tony Finau
Tony Finau entered last year’s Masters ranked 147th out of the top 150 in strokes-gained putting over the six months leading up to the event. Over the past year, Finau ranks 15th in this field in SG: P. That’s a remarkable turnaround on the greens, which has translated into three tournament wins since his last trip to Augusta, a place that suits his game well and where he’s flashed upside in previous stops.
This version of Finau has no holes in his game. He’s gaining 1.24 strokes per round on approach, up 0.5 strokes per round over his 2022 mark of 0.74 strokes, which was the best of his career. When picking a winner here, we want form, fit, and course history at Augusta, and Finau checks every box.
Max Homa
Since last year’s event, no golfer has taken bigger strides in their overall position in the game than Max Homa. Now up to 6th in the OWGR, Homa has shown that he can contend at any style golf course, and not just contend, but close. He’s won three times in the past calendar year, with five more T5 or better finishes, and has finished T20 or better in eight of his 10 starts this season. 2022 was a career year for Homa, and he saw improvements to his game in every strokes-gained metric versus his previous bests in 2021. Well, that trend has continued. Max Homa has gone from a +0.7 stroke per round golfer to a +2.1 stroke per round golfer.
I know his course history here and in majors is limited and uninspiring, but if you can win at Quail Hollow, Riviera, and Torrey Pines, you can win anywhere. This is just a different golfer. And most importantly to me, he believes it too.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Viktor Hovland and Justin Rose – T40 (+101)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
Viktor Hovland is going to win a green jacket at some point in his career. He’ll win multiple if he ever figures out how to navigate his short game and become more consistent.
Hovland’s fifth in the world in SG: BS over the past three months. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Scottish Open in July, 17 straight events, and he’s finished T20 in 12 of the 17 and six of the past seven. He gained over eight strokes on approach at The PLAYERS, and his driver remains one of the best weapons on Tour.
Rose has improved in all of his strokes gained tee-to-green metrics this season and is up nearly a full stroke per round on last season’s rates.
He’s played exceptionally well here throughout his career, finishing T25 or better in 13 of his 16 starts.
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