The Valero Texas Open is the calm before next week’s storm at Augusta National. While most of the world’s elite are skipping the trip to San Antonio, we still have a respectable field teeing it up at The Oaks Course this week.
This Greg Norman design is pretty straightforward. It plays 7,438 yards from the tips as a Par-72. The fairways are narrow and firm, but the rough isn’t overly penial. Wayward drives are penalized, though, because the course uses a lot of the natural layout surrounding it, like rocky waste areas, tall native grass, and plants.
This setup brings every golfer into play. It’s a long course, with difficult-to-reach Par-5s, which forces a lot of layups and common landing spots among the field. Distance is always king, but not a requirement here. Off the tee, I’d prefer accuracy, or at least lean toward a golfer ranking higher in Good Drives% than driving distance. Approach ranges vary, but we see a higher dispersion of both long irons (200+ yards) and wedges (100 yards and in) here because of the length. Wedge play will be key on the Par-5s, and holding greens with long irons is tricky here, especially if the wind is acting up, so scrambling is also essential to success. You can use our new Stat Database (It’s in beta, still a work in progress, but go use it!) to create a custom model to see who profiles well for TPC San Antonio.
A victory this week earns you a Masters invite if you don’t already have one.
Rickie Fowler is looking to play his way into Augusta, needing a win this weekend at the Valero Texas Open to do so.
The good folks at Betsperts Golf want you to win if Rickie does!
Sign up for a month-long subscription today, and if Rickie Fowler wins the Valero Texas Open and earns his way into The Masters, you will get your money back!
There are always discussions surrounding motivation this week, particularly near the top of the board for those who’ve already secured their Masters invite. Personally, I think that’s a lot of hot air. If a golfer wanted to use this week solely as a way to work on a few things before playing Augusta, they’d just go and do it at Augusta. They wouldn’t come to San Antonio and compete. They’d go play practice rounds. Walk the course and chip. Spend hours on the practice green. There are other reasons to bypass those golfers this week, like injury concerns and their betting odds, but motivation isn’t one of them.
The variable at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course, like most Texas courses, is the wind. The early forecast calls for steady winds throughout, with no distinct advantage to the AM/PM waves on Thursday and Friday, but check back as we approach Thursday.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC San Antonio:
TPC San Antonio is a very unique course off the tee. While many of the driveable holes have narrow tree-lined fairways, others are much wider. The average Driving Accuracy here is only 56% compared with the Tour average of 61%. The data shows that general accuracy off the tee does not matter as much because the rough is among the least penal on the entire Tour. In fact, the average margin between hitting a green-in-regulation from the rough compared to the fairway is 9% easier than the Tour average. Even more amazing is that the Birdie or Better percentage over the last five years when hitting the second shot from the rough is higher than from the fairway!
All the seeming variety and randomness off the tee is a definite reason TPC San Antonio is one of the top “second-shot” courses, as it is the eighth toughest layout to gain strokes on approach. Not only are the greens heavily guarded by difficult and deep bunkers, but many are also elevated above the fairway and do not provide bailout areas for errant shots. Players will also need to loft approach shots onto the proper quadrants of the greens due to the many undulations in order to get the ball to funnel as close to the pin as possible.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b
Noonan’s Valero Texas Open Betting Targets
Aaron Rai
I like the course fit for Aaron Rai, who’s coming off a solid week at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T19. Rai’s strokes gained profile is trending upward. Compared to 2022, he’s gaining more strokes per round in every tee-to-green category. He’s inconsistent on the greens, but he gained 2.6 strokes putting at last year’s Valero, so perhaps a field-average performance is possible this week.
Over his past 36 rounds, Rai is first in this field in Good Drive% while also ranking among the top 30 in approach, scrambling, and bogey avoidance. Keeping the ball in play and avoiding big numbers is the play here, and Rai is English, so he has a ton of wind experience.
- To Win: +7500 on DraftKings
- Top 40: -110 DraftKings
Nick Taylor
With advantages off the tee mitigated in San Antonio, I like the fit and form combination for Nick Taylor this week. Taylor has six top-20 or better finishes in 15 starts this season. That’s as many as he had in 2021 and 2022 combined. He’s a full stroke per round better than he was in 2022, gaining throughout the bag, with the biggest improvements coming in SG: APP.
His top ten finishes at Sony, Waste Management, and Valspar are encouraging. He’s not elite at any of the metrics that I’m focused on this week, but he’s steady across the board, and he’s playing better than most of the golfers priced around him.
- To Win: 60/1 on DraftKings
- Top 40: -115 FanDuel
Brendon Todd
Clearly, I have a type this week. Brendon Todd is the poster boy for safe-off-the-tee. He relies on his putter more than most golfers that I like to back, but he’s hitting his irons better than ever, and that’s what caught my attention this week. He gained over a half-stroke per round in his two previous events and over 0.3 strokes per round more than last season.
He ranks among the top 20 in this field in both birdie or better rate and bogey avoidance, which is exactly what I’m looking for here. Keep the ball in play, avoid the blow-up holes, and score when the opportunities present themselves.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Corey Conners and Si Woo Kim – T40 (+107)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
Both Conners and Kim have Masters invitations in hand, but as discussed at the top, that’s not a valid reason to fade them this week. They’re trending well, fit this course, and have played well here in previous iterations.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.