Strategy
With four of the top six players on the DraftKings slate having already punched their ticket to the Masters, the Valero is always an interesting week for trying to measure player motivation. In the chart below, you can see how the golfers that are already in the Masters have played in the week before a major. Recent injuries to two of those golfers (who happen to be the two highest-priced), Hideki Matsuyama (neck) and Tyrrell Hatton (wrist), muddies the waters even further. While both have performed relatively well in the past when playing the week before a major, most folks are staying away as their combined ownership projection as of Wednesday afternoon is only 24%.
In the upper tier, it appears that Rickie Fowler and Si Woo Kim will battle it out for the highest-owned player on the board with both over 22% at the moment. Personally, I’m sticking to my strategy of playing all of these golfers at the top of the board and then taking some firmer stands on values in the $7K range. I will, however, be underweight on Hatton and Matsuyama and overweight on Fowler, Conners, and Montgomery. In the low $9K range, Davis Riley, Chris Kirk, and Matt Kuchar are sucking up ownership at a rate of over 17% each.
Honestly, the entire $7K-9K range is loaded with over 20 players ranked between 30-90 in the Official World Golf Rankings. The winning lineup could easily come from six players in the $8K range including golfers like J.J. Spaun, Alex Noren, Ben Griffin, Thomas Detry, Cam Davis and Nicolai Hojgaard.
2023 Valero Texas Open Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Difficult Courses
- SG: Winds 15+ mph
With many people already focusing on the Masters, the smart thing is to avoid all of the noise and focus on making a profit this week. One of the largest angles I am attacking relates to my “Core 4” model and a grouping of metrics I believe are paramount in moving up the leaderboard. Simply put, I am targeting players who have past success on other difficult scoring courses, who are strong in both long and short-term SG: Approach, and also in certain “Safety” metrics including Good Drive %, Sand Save %, and Bogey Avoidance.
Neither distance nor complete accuracy is vital off the tee at TPC San Antonio. The fact that you do not need to be long here is evidenced by the fact that the last six winners have averaged 38th for Driving Distance. Last year’s winner J.J. Spaun ranked 95th. As for Driving Accuracy, back in 2019, the top five finishers averaged ninth. This was followed by 2021’s winner, Jordan Spieth, ranking 109th in fairways gained. Then last year, J.J. Spaun was 7th best. While almost every driving hole is flanked by either rocky terrain or native Texas brush, it will only impact those who are wildly spraying their ball off the tee. Golfers simply need to keep the ball in play off the tee to give themselves a chance to hit the green on this true “second-shot” course.
All the seeming variety and randomness off the tee is a definite reason TPC San Antonio is one of the top “second-shot” courses as it is the eighth toughest layout to gain strokes on approach. Players entering this event who are hot with their irons are my first priority. Each of the past seven winners here gained at least three strokes in approach in the event before their victory. Golfers that fit that puzzle piece this week include Tyrrell Hatton, Si Woo Kim, Erik van Rooyen, Eric Cole, Nick Taylor, Matt Wallace, Emiliano Grillo, and Ben Martin.
Not only are the greens heavily guarded by difficult and deep bunkers, but many are also elevated above the fairway and do not provide bailout areas for errant shots. Players will also need to loft approach shots onto the proper quadrants of the greens due to the many undulations in order to get the ball to funnel as close to the pin as possible. Other than SG: Approach, there is such little correlation here with any other data point, most likely because TPC San Antonio doesn’t fit any singular type of player. Evidence of this is the fact that there have been so many mid-range and longshot winners here.
One final angle I am factoring in relates to the large grouping of players who have not yet punched a ticket to the Masters. I am banking on those players, which does include the ultra-popular Rickie Fowler, to be very motivated this week. Obviously, a player like Fowler who has been the 13th-best player in the entire world over the past six months fits the bill. I was hoping for a better number but could resist the temptation of jumping on his 20-1 odds to win.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Valero Texas Open
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Scrambling
- Good Drive %
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis courses)
- SG: Wind
- Sand Save %
- Proximity 50-125 yds
Weather Forecast – San Antonio, Texas
The Valspar Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
*Nicolai Hojgaard was not included in this week’s model due to a lack of PGA Tour rounds which did give him enough sample size. He is one of my favorite plays this week at only $8.0K and will be one of my core golfers.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
