The world’s best golfers head to Austin, Texas, this week for the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play event, a scheduling wrinkle to break up the monotony of standard tournament golf. This is currently slated to be the final version of this event, at least at this course and in this place on the calendar, but hopefully, the Tour will bring back match play in some format in the near future.
The field of 64 takes on a round-robin format Wednesday through Friday, with 16 four-man groups playing head-to-head with the goal of advancing from their group into the ‘win and advance’ format over the weekend.
As the 2021 event showed, with just one of 16 top seeds moving on, Match Play brings an added layer of variance when compared to a traditional four-day stroke play event. Last year, we saw eight of the 16 top seeds advance, the highest mark we’ve seen here over the past seven seasons. Per Justin Ray, the advancement rate has been pretty flat across all four groups since this event moved to Austin Country Club:
A group (1-16) – 33.0%
B group (17-32) – 24.1%
C group (33-48) – 20.5%
D group – (49-64) – 22.3%
Austin Country Club, designed by noted golf architect Pete Dye, adds another layer of randomness. A par-71 layout measuring just 7,108 yards from the tips keeps every skill set in play, limiting distance advantages off the tee. The counter to that, as it pertains specifically to match play setup, is that distance helps since you’ll likely be forcing your opponent to hit their approach shot first. Knowing where or what your opponent did ahead of you is a unique advantage in match-play formats because that information can dictate how aggressive golfers need to be when they’re up. A triple-bogey is the same as a par in this format if your opponent birdied the hole.
A unique format also brings in unique betting opportunities. Betting outright winners is still in play, but betting on group winners is more commonplace and likely a better way to approach this week. Finishing position bets get the week off. I’ll share a couple of outright bets that I like, along with a few of my favorite group bets heading into Wednesday.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Austin Country Club:
Not only does the course have a scenic backdrop, but it sets up to be an excellent match-play course with three lengthy par 5s along with five par-4s under 400 yards. There are a couple of holes down the stretch that reward boldness for players who might be trailing in their match and need to take some risks. This includes the driveable 317-yard 13th hole over water and the 368-yard 18th hole, which is downhill.
While the course is somewhat generous off the tee with wider fairways on many holes, it is filled with deep bunkers, a handful of water hazards, sidehill lies, and surrounding canyons to penalize those who are spraying their drives. Unless super accurate, bombing away off the tee here is simply not a wise choice. Any advantage that longer hitters have is neutralized on most drives.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s WGC Dell Match Play Betting Targets
Tom Hoge
I waited for the bracket release before jumping into anything here because I do think it’s possible to find softer landing spots for players. For instance, I love Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton, and Max Homa this week, but they don’t have easy paths out of their group and in some instances, could be staring down a Scottie Scheffler or Jon Rahm if they advance.
Not only do I like Tom Hoge’s draw, I really like the form he brings to Texas, and I love his fit at Austin Country Club. Hoge will always give himself chances for birdie because his irons are world-class. In fact, over the past 50 rounds, he leads this loaded field in SG: APP. Using our new Customizable Stat Database, Hoge ranks sixth for me in this field over the past 50 rounds, leaning heavily on his approach game to get there. With Aaron Wise’s tee-to-green game in the dumps and Cam Davis’s 2023 struggles, I like the nearly 3-to-1 price on Hoge to advance.
Taylor Montgomery
Putting matters here. You need to pile up birdies to thrive in this event or have the ability to drain a 25+ foot putt to save par and put the pressure on your opponent, who’s now nervously standing over a knee-knocking 10-footer for birdie. Statistically, Taylor Montgomery is the best putter in this field.
The young rookie of the year favorite can hit it a country mile, makes a killing on Par-5s, and his ability to put pressure on his opponents with the putter should be a factor. His length matters as well, even though Austin CC mitigates distance advantages a bit. In match play settings, being ‘away,’ meaning it’s your turn, especially when hitting the first approach shot, can be a severe disadvantage. Knowing what your opponent did and how aggressive or not aggressive you need to be is critical. Montgomery’s distance will help him see his opponent hit first more times than not, so while I’m not factoring in distance in a traditional sense, I do think it’s a good tie-breaker this week.
To Win Group 7
Will Zalatoris
Will Zalatoris got one of the softer draws in the group play section, and I like his price to advance at nearly 2-to-1. I know Zalatoris can be a nightmare to watch putt, but he’s one of the better lag and distance putters on tour. Now, we need putts to drop, not just get close to the hole, but Zalatoris is lightyears ahead of Ryan Fox, Harris English, and Andrew Putnam in terms of ball-striking that he’ll have enough birdie looks to advance out of this group.
- To Win Group 7: +170 BetMGM
To Win Group 10
Tony Finau
Over the past 50 rounds, Tony Finau is at the top of my statistical model for the week, which is really wild, considering how well Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm have played this season. Finau ranks inside the top ten in every category that I’m weighing; the only player that can make that claim. He also has a fairly soft draw with Kurt Kitayama, Adrian Meronk, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout paired with Finau in Group 10. Kitayama has the best shot to upend Finau, but he’s one of the worst putters in this field inside 10 feet, and that’s a tough sell for me here.
- To Win Group 10: +150 BetMGM
To Win Group 15
Cam Young
Cameron Young came on the scene last season with a modern bomb-and-gauge game. What was surprising to see as the year progressed was Young’s ability to compete at events where that style doesn’t work, like his third-place finish at another Pete Dye track, Harbour Town, at the RBC Heritage. Young has struggled with his putter a bit this year relative to his rookie campaign, but he has the ability to flash the spiked putting weeks that are required to win here.
- To Win Group 10: +150 BetMGM
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