The PGA Tour heads to the “Lone Star State” for the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play event as the best golfers in the world take a week off from stroke play and battle it out in head-to-head competition. For the seventh and final year since 2016, the tournament will be held at Austin Country Club on the outskirts of the Texas capital.
It was announced last week that the tournament will not be continuing next year. “We’re formally announcing today that the 2023 World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play will be the final playing of the event here at Austin Country Club, and not be included on the 2024 calendar or moving forward,” executive director Jordan Uppleger confirmed. “The event has had an incredible run here at Austin Country Club.” The tournament’s slot on the calendar is expected to be filled by the Cadence Bank Houston Open as it moves from the fall portion of the schedule.
The Field
Following the conclusion of THE PLAYERS Championship, 64 players are eligible for this event through their Official World Golf Ranking. Headlining the field is Scottie Scheffler, who reclaimed World No. 1 with his victory at TPC Sawgrass. The six-time PGA TOUR winner will be attempting to defend his Dell Match Play title at Austin Country Club, where he defeated Kevin Kisner, 4 and 3, in 2022 for the victory.
Eight of the top 10 players in the world will be teeing it up in group play starting on Wednesday. Only Justin Thomas (rest) and Cam Smith (ineligible) will not be in attendance. Justin Rose is the only other eligible player to skip the event. Eleven LIV members are ranked inside the top 75 in the world but are suspended by the PGA Tour and thus unable to compete in Tour events. The 16 four-man groups for the three-day, round-robin stage were recently revealed and are listed quadrant by quadrant further below.
2023 Dell Match Play Betting Narratives and Strategies
Including players who rank highly in each of the model stats this week, there are numerous angles to consider for betting on golfers whether for outrights, group winners, or head-to-head matchups.
First of all, because this is not a stroke-play event, there is no Strokes Gained data to analyze, thus limiting our ability to project success based on the normal models. And because of the grueling pressure-packed format that includes players battling just to make it out of their initial group, there is a tremendous amount of volatility in this event. This was exemplified in two of the past three tournaments with both Kevin Kisner and Billy Horschel winning as 80-1 longshots. The top seeds typically don’t even make it past day three. We see a wide array of favorites, mid-range, and longshot winners here. That being said, I expect that to change this year. With so much of the field watered down thanks to none of the LIV players being eligible, I expect more of the top seeds to pass through this year.
There are, however, still plenty of quality metrics we can model this week. Many of these are centered around stats that fit the course at Austin Country Club. An example of this is Fairways Gained. Even though we don’t have Driving Accuracy stats, because of all the bunkers, hazards, and tricky lies outside of the fairway, we can make the assumption Fairways Gained is an important stat this week. Birdie-makers, scramblers, and consistent putters are also the types of players who typically have more success in match play events.
The winning trends for this event also show that current form matters. Each of the last 12 winners has had at least one top-10 finish in their last four starts. Local Texas players who have more familiarity with the course, such as Scottie Scheffler, also have an advantage.
Left-handed golfers also seem to have an edge here as Bubba Watson, Brian Harman, and Robert MacIntyre have each had success in this event.
I will also be focusing on strong putters. The ability to consistently sink short to mid-range putts, especially on these sloping greens, even if just saving par, can put enormous pressure on opponents. Many elite putters have won this event including Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day.
This unique type of event is one in which we can target players by simply using the “eye test” and knowing which players are able to consistently give themselves birdie chances because of their elite ball-striking or who can grind out holes by scrambling to save par.
Finally, it is important to take into account which golfers have advantages playing in the wind as three of the five days are forecasted to see strong gusts which are typical for Texas, especially this time of year. Expect the unexpected this week. Match play tournaments are among the most unpredictable events. My advice is to go lighter on the bankroll for outrights and focus more on the group winners and daily head-to-head matchups.
The Quadrants
Top 10 Most Important Stats
- SG: APP
- Fairways Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
- Good Drive%
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting
- Proximity 175+ yards
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Total on Short Courses
Austin, Texas Weather Forecast (March 22-26)
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Jon Rahm +1400 (currently +1100)
(1.71u) DraftKings
Jordan Spieth +2800 (currently +2500)
(0.85u) DraftKings
Tyrrell Hatton +4000 (currently +2500)
(0.60u) DraftKings
Jason Day +4000 (currently +3300)
(0.60u) DraftKings
Group Winners
- Group 1 – Scheffler +100 (1.5u) – MGM
- Group 2 – Rahm +125 (1.2u) – FD
- Group 4 – Cantlay +115 (1.2u) – Rivers
- Group 5 – Homa +160 (1u) – DK
- Group 6 – Schauffele +150 (1u) – Caesars
- Group 7 – Fox +335 (0.5u) – Rivers
- Group 8 – Kirk +333 (0.5u) – MGM
- Group 9 – Day +210 (1u) – MGM
- Group 10 – Finau +150 (1u) – MGM
- Group 12 – Spieth +185 (1u) – Caesars
- Group 13 – Hadwin +300 (0.5u) – DK
- Group 14 – Hatton +145 (1u) – FD
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