My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
Key Stats Considered
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.
SG: Approach
The gold standard of statistical modeling, it’s crucial to gain strokes on your second shot at every course on the PGA Tour.
| 1. Alex Smalley |
| 2. Trey Mullinax |
| 3. Scott Piercey |
| 4. Mark Hubbard |
| 5. Andrew Novak |
| 6. Lanto Griffin |
| 7. Matthew NeSmith |
| 8. Cole Hammer |
| 9. Robby Shelton |
| 10. Mathias Schmid |
Opportunities Gained
Opportunities gained measures the number of times a golfer hits a green in regulation inside of 15 feet or hits a green in under regulation. By incorporating Opps gained, we can give a boost to players who are not only hitting greens, but hitting it close. Opps gained is one of the stats that really pops with guys landing on the top of the leaderboard
| 1. Trey Mullinax |
| 2. Cam Davis |
| 3. Hayden Buckley |
| 4. Thomas Detry |
| 5. Lee Hodges |
| 6. Davis Thompson |
| 7. Corey Conners |
| 8. Keith Mitchell |
| 9. Satoshi Kodaira |
| 10. Chris Kirk |
Par 5 Scoring
Par 5s account for about 33% more of the strokes gained than Par 4s and Par 3s
| 1. Eric Cole |
| 2. Patrick Rodgers |
| 3. Cam Davis |
| 4. Cam Percy |
| 5. Ryan Palmer |
| 6. Patton Kizzire |
| 7. Davis Thompson |
| 8. Joseph Bramlett |
| 9. Ben Griffin |
| 10. Alex Smalley |
Wedge Guys
Given the number of short Par 4s and forced layups on Par 5s, you’ll see a lot of shots under 125 yards at the Valero this week.
| 1. Chris Kirk |
| 2. Mark Hubbard |
| 3. Joseph Bramlett |
| 4. Davis Riley |
| 5. Henrik Lander |
| 6. Brendon Todd |
| 7. James Hahn |
| 8. Ryan Palmer |
| 9. Ben Martin |
| 10. Russell Knox |
Good Drives Gained
TPC San Antonio requires accuracy off the tee. Good drives gained is my favorite stat to measure driving accuracy because there is an element to strategy in play. Good drives measures fairways or fringe hit with a green in regulation to follow. Good drives are a huge indicator of success at this tournament. One glance at the leaderboard shows most guys in the top ten gaining strokes in this metric.
| 1. Ryan Armour |
| 2. Martin Laird |
| 3. Satoshi Kodaira |
| 4. Aaron Rai |
| 5. Adam Long |
| 6. Russell Knox |
| 7. Doug Ghim |
| 8. Matthew NeSmith |
| 9. Brice Garnett |
| 10. JJ Spaun |
Short Par 4s
There is some overlap here with wedge guys, but one-third of the holes on this course are Par 4s under 450 yards.
| 1. Trey Mullinax |
| 2. Corey Conners |
| 3. Tyrell Hatton |
| 4. Matt Kuchar |
| 5. JJ Spaun |
| 6. Austin Cook |
| 7. Luke List |
| 8. Tyler Duncan |
| 9. Mathias Schmid |
| 10. Brendon Todd |
Putting on Slow Greens
TPC San Antonio is by no means local muni green speed, but they often run well below average on the stimp meter. Here is a list of golfers who aren’t thrown off by the switch to velcro greens.
| 1. Matt Kuchar |
| 2. Kelly Kraft |
| 3. Tyrrell Hatton |
| 4. Troy Merritt |
| 5. Ben Griffin |
| 6. Brendon Todd |
| 7. JJ Spaun |
| 8. Richie Werenski |
| 9. Harry Hall |
| 10. Taylor Montgomery |
Current Form
The golfers playing the best at the moment. Though golf is filled with variance and the previous weeks winner is more likely to miss the cut than win again, being in the groove with your swing is a real thing in golf.
| 1. Tyrrell Hatton |
| 2. Keith Mitchell |
| 3. Matt Wallace |
| 4. Sam Stevens |
| 5. Kevin Chappell |
| 6. Michael Kim |
| 7. Akshay Bhatia |
| 8. Tyler Duncan |
| 9. Henrik Norlander |
| 10. Rickie Fowler |
Course Form
The players who’ve gained the most strokes at TPC San Antonio over the years.
| 1. Aaron Baddeley |
| 2. Ryan Moore |
| 3. Charley Hoffman |
| 4. Kevin Streelman |
| 5. Corey Conners |
| 6. Chris Kirk |
| 7. Ryan Palmer |
| 8. Jimmy Walker |
| 9. Matt Kuchar |
| 10. Si Woo Kim |
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
| Peaking |
| 1. Ryan Palmer |
| 2. David Lingmerth |
| 3. Jason Dufner |
| 4. Scott Piercy |
| 5. Tyler Duncan |
| Fading |
| 1. Russell Knox |
| 2. Emiliano Grillo |
| 3. Corey Conners |
| 4. Brendon Todd |
| 5. Lanto Griffin |
Statistical Model Top 50
| 1. Tyrrell Hatton – Ranks first in short term form, overall form, third in long term form, and third in putting. He’s the class of the field, but you’ll have to pay a premium to bet or roster him. |
| 2. Si Woo Kim |
| 3. Chris Kirk – Inisde the top 12 for approach, wedges, good drives, opps gained, and the Par 4 distance. Obviously in very good form and likes to dominate the lesser field events. |
| 4. Davis Riley |
| 5. Matt Wallace |
| 6. Erik Van Rooyen |
| 7. Chesson Hadley |
| 8. Corey Conners – First in opportunities gained, 20th in good drives, eighth in Par 4 distance. He has a win here just a few years ago. |
| 9. Matt Kuchar |
| 10. Satoshi Kodaira – Top 20 in approach, wedges, good drives, and opportunities gained. Kodaira is a nice candidate for one round spikes like first round leader or showdown. |
| 11. Ben Martin – Martin rates out really well in terms of course fit. He’s seventh in approach, ninth in wedges, 6th in good drives, 16th in opps gained, and 22nd in the Par 4 distances. He’s also playing well in general right now ranking 16th in this weak field. |
| 12. Nate Lashley |
| 13. Brendon Todd |
| 14. David Lingmerth |
| 15. Keith Mitchell – Doesn’t necessarily rate out well recently, but he’s one of very few golfers in this field who is tops in current form and course history. |
| 16. Eric Cole |
| 17. Rickie Fowler – Playing well lately, rates out 10th in current form and 20th in course history. |
| 18. Dylan Wu |
| 19. Mark Hubbard |
| 20. Ryan Palmer – Texas boy that rates out seventh at TPC San Antonio while also sneaking onto the list of peaking players. Palmer is excellent on Par 5s, with a wedge in his hand, and also on overall approach. |
| 21. Lanto Griffin |
| 22. Scott Piercy |
| 23. Kevin Roy |
| 24. Hideki Matsuyama |
| 25. Ryan Moore – Another Texas boy that rates out well in course form, Moore ranks second in overall strokes gained at TPC San Antonio. Moore is known to be dialed in with his wedges. |
| 26. Hank Lebioda |
| 27. Tyler Duncan |
| 28. Samuel Stevens |
| 29. Stephan Jaeger |
| 30. Joseph Bramlett – Bramlett has been dialed with his approach game, specifically with his wedges. He also rates out top 15 in opportunities gained. |
| 31. Brandon Wu |
| 32. Luke List |
| 33. Cam Percy |
| 34. Aaron Rai |
| 35. Akshay Bhatia – Bhatia rates out seventh in current form and his statistical profile is excellent good drives and from the par 4 distances. |
| 36. Garrick Higgo |
| 37. Chris Stroud |
| 38. Nick Taylor |
| 39. Ryan Armour – Solid with his wedges and accurate with his driver. |
| 40. Thomas Detry |
| 41. Kevin Streelman |
| 42. Robby Shelton |
| 43. Patton Kizzire |
| 44. Alex Smalley – I’m always a sucker for Smalley. He pops on approach and good drives which are both vital. He makes sense as a first round leader or DK punt. |
| 45. Sean O’Hair |
| 46. Greyson Sigg |
| 47. Austin Cook |
| 48. Ryan Fox |
| 49. Sepp Straka |
| 50. Russell Knox |